Čukarički vs Mačva Šabac Prediction: Home win 50% (10 Oct 2026)

Serbian Super League10 October 2026 18:00 CESTStadion Čukarički, Belgrad12°13 km/h

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ČukaričkiLow block & direct

Mačva ŠabacLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Čukarički (50%)Best value by the model: 2 · Mačva Šabac @ 9.80 (+104 %)

1 · Čukarički 50%X 29%21% Mačva Šabac · 2

50%

29%

21%

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Analysis: Čukarički – Mačva Šabac

Marcus Johansson · 2 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

FAKTA: Model probabilities: FK Cukaricki 50%, draw 29%, FK Macva Sabac 21%. Model lean: FK Cukaricki. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Expected goals: FK Cukaricki 1.63, FK Macva Sabac 0.91. Over 2.5 goals: 47%. Both teams to score: 48%. Playing style: FK Cukaricki profiles as low defence & direct, FK Macva Sabac as low defence & direct. Points: FK Cukaricki 11 vs FK Macva Sabac 8 (edge FK Cukaricki) xPoints: FK Cukaricki 14.0 vs FK Macva Sabac 10.5 (edge FK Cukaricki) xG per match: FK Cukaricki 1.2 vs FK Macva Sabac 0.74 (edge FK Cukaricki) xGA per match: FK Cukaricki 1.6 vs FK Macva Sabac 2.1 (edge FK Cukaricki)

TEXT: With Čukarički and Mačva Šabac both opting for a low defensive line combined with direct play, fans can expect a battle of similar tactics. However, the hosts have consistently shown a sharper edge, both in terms of current points and expected statistics. Čukarički's 11 points and an xPoints tally of 14.0 clearly outpace Mačva's 8 points and 10.5 xPoints.

The numbers highlight a clear advantage for Čukarički, particularly when it comes to expected goals (xG) and expected goals against (xGA). The home side averages 1.2 xG per match compared to Mačva's mere 0.74, indicating a stronger offensive capability. Defensively, Čukarički also edges out, with an xGA of 1.6 against Mačva's leaky 2.1. These stats suggest that while both teams may deploy similar strategies, Čukarički implements them more effectively and is less vulnerable at the back.

The model strongly leans toward a Čukarički victory, assigning them a 50% probability to win. The likelihood of a 1-0 scoreline (13%) further backs this up, pointing to a narrow but controlled win for the hosts. With an expected goal tally of 1.63 for Čukarički and 0.91 for the visitors, a 2-0 outcome (11%) also seems plausible. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at just 47%, aligning with a low-scoring affair.

Čukarički's greater tactical effectiveness and home advantage position them to secure a vital three points.

Čukarički

Form LLLDL

League ranking xG #11xGA #13xT #11xP/match #9Points #9

Key players

Marko DocićFxG 0.17 · xT 0.06
Veljko RadosavljevićFxG 0.30 · xT 0.04
Uroš MiladinovićCAMxG 0.36 · xT 0.15

Mačva Šabac

Form WDDLL

League ranking xG #14xGA #14xT #15xP/match #13Points #13

Key players

Bosko VrastanovicFxG 0.02 · xT 0.08
Luka PejovicLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.16
Milan VidakovFxG 0.34 · xT 0.05

Match prediction: Čukarički – Mačva Šabac

Predicted score matrix

Mačva Šabac →

Čukarički →

0–08.2%

0–16.8%

0–23.3%

0–31.0%

0–4+0.3%

1–012.5%

1–112.0%

1–25.3%

1–31.6%

1–4+0.4%

2–010.5%

2–19.5%

2–24.3%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–05.7%

3–15.2%

3–22.4%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–03.3%

4+–13.0%

4+–21.4%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-013%
2.1-112%
3.2-011%
4.2-110%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,63–0,91

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+11%

Under 2,553%

@1.98EV+6%

Over 2,547%

@1.72

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Čukarički to win50%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Čukarički to win50%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Uroš Nikolić to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Uroš Nikolić to score26%
Igor Ristivojevic to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Mačva Šabac21% probability@9.80BetsafeEV+104%reference odds
2 · Mačva Šabac21% probability@9.80NordicbetEV+104%reference odds
X · Draw29% probability@4.80BetsafeEV+41%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Čukarički	X	2 · Mačva Šabac
Betfair Exchange	1.12	1.13	1.12
Betsafe	1.25	EV+ 41% 4.80	EV+ 104% 9.80
Nordicbet	1.25	EV+ 41% 4.80	EV+ 104% 9.80

Odds updated 4 Oct, 12:36

Odds movement

1-1 %

74 %69 %

1.26 → 1.25

X-3 %

21 %16 %

4.95 → 4.80

2+4 %

12 %7 %

9.40 → 9.80

Over 2,5-2 %

56 %51 %

1.75 → 1.72

Nordicbet · 8 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Čukarički

Mačva Šabac

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Čukarički (12–18)

Mačva Šabac (6–17)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Čukarički

Mačva Šabac

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Čukarički

Mačva Šabac

The teams in numbers

Performance	Čukarički	Mačva Šabac
Points	11	8
xPoints	14	10.5
xG per match	1.2	0.74
xGA per match	1.6	2.1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.34	0.14
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.3	0.29

Playing style	Čukarički	Mačva Šabac
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.23
Field tilt	0.35	0.25
xT per match	0.84	0.61
xTA per match	1.3	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	26	17
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.18
Entries into the box per match	10	7
Entries into the box against	14	16
Pass completion %	0.67	0.66
Pass completion % under pressure	0.61	0.63
Passes per match	238	216
Passes against per match	377	360
Switches of play per match	18.9	15.6
Long balls per match	26	22

Set pieces	Čukarički	Mačva Šabac
xG from free kicks	0.01	0.02
Corners per match	3.6	2.6
Corners against per match	5.7	5.6
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.04	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.36	0.54
First touch, defensive corners %	0.42	0.52

Other	Čukarički	Mačva Šabac
Throw-in control	0.66	0.63

The goalkeepers	Vladan Carapic (Čukarički)	Vukašin Jovanović (Mačva Šabac)
Saves	21	21
Save %	68%	81%
xG prevented	32%	67%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Čukarički

Fixtures, form & tips

Mačva Šabac

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Čukarički vs Mačva Šabac according to our model?

The model gives Čukarički a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Čukarički 50%, draw 29%, Mačva Šabac 21%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.