Serbian Super LeaguePartizans stadion, Belgrad14°7 km/h

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    Partizan BelgradePartizan BelgradePossession & high press
    vs
    Novi PazarNovi PazarPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Partizan Belgrade (50%)Best value by the model: 2 · Novi Pazar @ 4.70 (+15 %)

    Partizan Belgrade vs Novi Pazar · Serbian Super League

    1 · Partizan Belgrade 50%X 25%24% Novi Pazar · 2

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    Analysis: Partizan Belgrade – Novi Pazar

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Novi Pazar's edge in points and xPoints sets an intriguing backdrop against Partizan Belgrade's historical stronghold in this fixture. Despite trailing in the current standings, Partizan's commanding head-to-head record, with five wins out of six since 2023, remains a significant factor. Their dominance is underscored by an average of 4.2 goals per meeting, suggesting a tendency for high-scoring outcomes when these teams clash.

    The model sees Partizan as slight favorites with a 50% win probability, yet the balance is closer than usual, given Novi Pazar's solid form this season. Expected goals suggest a competitive match, with Partizan narrowly leading their visitors, 1.68 to 1.26. The high-scoring history here coincides with a 56% chance of over 2.5 goals, reinforcing the potential for a lively contest, with Partizan's high-press approach meeting Novi Pazar's possession-control style.

    Novi Pazar's better performance metrics this season make them an interesting watch, and a draw or slight win could be on the cards. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 12% supports a tight affair, but if you're eyeing value, Novi Pazar's potential to defy the odds is worth a closer look.

    Partizan BelgradePartizan Belgrade
    Form LWLLD
    League ranking xG #5xGA #7xT #4xP/match #11Points #11
    Key players
    • Zubairu IbrahimLWxG 0.22 · xT -0.04
    • Milan RoganovićRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.22
    • Samson NwuluRBxG 0.05 · xT 0.32
    Novi PazarNovi Pazar
    Form LDWDD
    League ranking xG #6xGA #6xT #8xP/match #4Points #8
    Key players
    • Dominic Wadi SadiRWxG 0.25 · xT 0.11
    • Fejsal MulićFxG 0.37 · xT 0.04
    • Kaheim Anthony DixonLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.14

    Match prediction: Partizan Belgrade – Novi Pazar

    Predicted score matrix

    Novi Pazar →
    Partizan Belgrade →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.6%
    0–16.3%
    0–24.2%
    0–31.8%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–08.6%
    1–111.5%
    1–27.0%
    1–32.9%
    1–4+1.2%
    2
    2–07.5%
    2–19.4%
    2–25.9%
    2–32.5%
    2–4+1.0%
    3
    3–04.2%
    3–15.3%
    3–23.3%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–02.6%
    4+–13.2%
    4+–22.0%
    4+–30.9%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-09%
    4. 4.2-07%
    5. 5.1-27%
    Expected goals
    1,68–1,26
    Both teams to score
    59%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,544%
    @2.38EV+4%
    Over 2,556%
    @1.52

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Partizan Belgrade to win50%
    • Over 1.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    38%

    Fair odds

    2.61

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Partizan Belgrade to win50%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Milan Aleksić to score37%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score59%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Milan Aleksić to score37%
    • Jovan Marinković to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Novi Pazar24% probability@4.70BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
    • 2 · Novi Pazar24% probability@4.70NordicbetEV+15%reference odds
    • Under 2.544% probability@2.38BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · Partizan BelgradeX2 · Novi Pazar
    Betfair Exchange1.121.131.12
    Betsafe1.55
    EV+ 3%
    4.05
    EV+ 15%
    4.70
    Nordicbet1.55
    EV+ 3%
    4.05
    EV+ 15%
    4.70

    Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    6 matches
    Partizan Belgrade 5Draw 0Novi Pazar 1
    Goals: 15–10 (⌀ 4,2)

    Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • FK Partizan Belgrade dominate this fixture historically: 5 wins to 1 in 6 meetings.
    • A high-scoring fixture: 4.2 goals per meeting on average.
    • FK Partizan Belgrade win 57% of their home matches all-time (42 played).
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Partizan Belgrade
    Novi Pazar
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Partizan Belgrade (17–19)
    Novi Pazar (10–11)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Partizan Belgrade
    Samson Nwulu: 214 passningar, xT 1.36NwuluMilan Vukotić: 203 passningar, xT 0.82VukotićStefan Milic: 203 passningar, xT 0.42MilicNikola Simić: 166 passningar, xT 0.37SimićIgor Miladinović: 140 passningar, xT 0.69MiladinovićMiloš Krunić: 123 passningar, xT 0.17KrunićIddrisu Baba Mohammed: 121 passningar, xT 0.09MohammedSidney Alexssander Pena De Lima: 115 passningar, xT 0.14LimaDemba Seck: 92 passningar, xT 0.88SeckStefan Mitrović: 84 passningar, xT 0.17MitrovićStefan Petrović: 81 passningar, xT 0.2Petrović
    Novi Pazar
    Jovan Marinković: 281 passningar, xT 0.42MarinkovićAleksandar Miljković: 190 passningar, xT 0.56MiljkovićTomislav Dadic: 173 passningar, xT 0.84DadicAhmed Hadžimujović: 161 passningar, xT 0.26HadžimujovićIvan Davidović: 137 passningar, xT -0.04DavidovićPapa Amady Gadio: 124 passningar, xT 0.76GadioBogdan Matijašević: 103 passningar, xT 0.1MatijaševićDominic Wadi Sadi: 87 passningar, xT 0.69SadiKaheim Anthony Dixon: 75 passningar, xT 0.77DixonNikola Stanković: 63 passningar, xT 0.31StankovićAdem Bojan Ljajić: 59 passningar, xT 0.28Ljajić
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Partizan Belgrade
    Samson Nwulu: 214 passningar, xT 1.36NwuluMilan Vukotić: 203 passningar, xT 0.82VukotićStefan Milic: 203 passningar, xT 0.42MilicNikola Simić: 166 passningar, xT 0.37SimićIgor Miladinović: 140 passningar, xT 0.69MiladinovićMiloš Krunić: 123 passningar, xT 0.17KrunićIddrisu Baba Mohammed: 121 passningar, xT 0.09MohammedSidney Alexssander Pena De Lima: 115 passningar, xT 0.14LimaDemba Seck: 92 passningar, xT 0.88SeckStefan Mitrović: 84 passningar, xT 0.17MitrovićStefan Petrović: 81 passningar, xT 0.2Petrović
    Novi Pazar
    Jovan Marinković: 281 passningar, xT 0.42MarinkovićAleksandar Miljković: 190 passningar, xT 0.56MiljkovićTomislav Dadic: 173 passningar, xT 0.84DadicAhmed Hadžimujović: 161 passningar, xT 0.26HadžimujovićIvan Davidović: 137 passningar, xT -0.04DavidovićPapa Amady Gadio: 124 passningar, xT 0.76GadioBogdan Matijašević: 103 passningar, xT 0.1MatijaševićDominic Wadi Sadi: 87 passningar, xT 0.69SadiKaheim Anthony Dixon: 75 passningar, xT 0.77DixonNikola Stanković: 63 passningar, xT 0.31StankovićAdem Bojan Ljajić: 59 passningar, xT 0.28Ljajić

    The teams in numbers

    PerformancePartizan BelgradeNovi Pazar
    Points813
    xPoints11.516.1
    xG per match1.61.5
    xGA per match1.31.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.140.43
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.290.23
    Playing stylePartizan BelgradeNovi Pazar
    Build-up efficiency0.30.3
    Field tilt0.660.49
    xT per match1.41.1
    xTA per match1.11.2
    Won balls, offensive half2824
    Pressing intensity0.210.22
    Pressing efficiency0.330.35
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.30.3
    Entries into the box per match1511
    Entries into the box against1112
    Pass completion %0.770.73
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.71
    Passes per match396297
    Passes against per match238303
    Switches of play per match36.228.4
    Long balls per match5240
    Set piecesPartizan BelgradeNovi Pazar
    xG from free kicks0.050.04
    Corners per match5.54.7
    Corners against per match2.44.9
    xG per corner0.030.02
    xGA per corner against0.030.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.440.26
    First touch, defensive corners %0.50.64
    OtherPartizan BelgradeNovi Pazar
    Throw-in control0.720.66
    The goalkeepersMiloš Krunić (Partizan Belgrade)Bogdan Matijašević (Novi Pazar)
    Saves2024
    Save %56%77%
    xG prevented28%65%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Partizan Belgrade
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Novi Pazar
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Partizan Belgrade vs Novi Pazar according to our model?

    The model gives Partizan Belgrade a 50% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Partizan Belgrade 50%, draw 25%, Novi Pazar 24%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.