01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance OFK Beograd or draw (X2)64%
- Under 3.5 goals79%
Serbian Super League10°8 km/h
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Mladost LučaniLow block & directvs
OFK BeogradPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · OFK Beograd (36%)Soft draw
Mladost Lučani vs OFK Beograd · Serbian Super League
1 · Mladost Lučani 33%X 31%36% OFK Beograd · 2
33%
31%
36%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Mladost Lučani – OFK Beograd
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
The tension in this matchup is palpable: Mladost Lučani may have more points, but OFK Beograd holds the edge historically and in several key metrics. Despite trailing in the table, the visitors come into this clash with a slight edge from the model, which gives them a 36% chance of winning compared to the hosts' 33%. This tight spread is mirrored in expected goals, with Lučani at 1.18 and Beograd at 1.16, suggesting a razor-thin margin.
Mladost Lučani might have the points advantage, boasting 16 to Beograd's 9, yet their xPoints and xG per match tell a more competitive story. Their xPoints of 12.8 barely surpass Beograd's 10.1, and their xG per match, sitting at 0.91, is lower than Beograd's 1.0. This suggests that Lučani's current league position may mask vulnerabilities that the visitors could exploit.
In the head-to-head domain, Beograd's dominance is notable, even if the sample size of five matches is modest. They've managed two wins and three draws, leaving Lučani without a victory. While head-to-head records should not be overemphasized, they do add psychological weight. The visitors' possession-oriented style may again trouble a Lučani side that prefers direct play but struggles defensively, as indicated by both teams averaging 1.5 xGA per match.
The tight spread in most likely scorelines—1-1, 1-0, or 0-1—highlights how evenly matched these teams are, pointing towards a low-scoring affair. With the model showing only a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals, the under is a reasonable lean, especially considering both teams' defensive frailties.
In betting terms, the value might lie with OFK Beograd, offering a slight edge in the model's probabilities. At bookmaker odds of 2.80 for an away win, there's an attractive proposition here for those willing to back the visitors to continue their historical edge.
Mladost LučaniForm WLWLW
League ranking xG #13xGA #12xT #14xP/match #10Points #4
Key players
- Mihailo TodosijevićFxG 0.21 · xT 0.03
- Vasil TašovskiRWxG 0.29 · xT -0.01
- Aleksandar VarjačićRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.17
OFK BeogradForm WLDLL
League ranking xG #12xGA #11xT #10xP/match #14Points #10
Key players
- Ethan HoardFxG 0.20 · xT -0.02
- Dognimani Yacouba SiluéFxG 0.41 · xT 0.11
- Miljan MomčilovićCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.06
Match prediction: Mladost Lučani – OFK Beograd
Predicted score matrix
OFK Beograd →
Mladost Lučani →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–010.0%
0–110.8%
0–26.5%
0–32.5%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–011.0%
1–113.6%
1–27.7%
1–33.0%
1–4+1.1%
2
2–06.7%
2–17.8%
2–24.5%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–02.6%
3–13.1%
3–21.8%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.2%
4+–20.7%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-114%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.0-111%
- 4.0-010%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,18–1,16
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,3010%
122%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,559%
@1.25
Over 2,541%
@1.03
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance OFK Beograd or draw (X2)64%
- Under 2.5 goals59%
- Dognimani Yacouba Silué to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals41%
- Dognimani Yacouba Silué to score23%
- Uroš Stojanović to be booked23%
Odds & value
| Bookmaker | 1 · Mladost Lučani | X | 2 · OFK Beograd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 1.12 | 1.13 | 1.12 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:03
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesMladost Lučani 0Draw 3OFK Beograd 2
Goals: 2–4 (⌀ 1,2)
Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- OFK Beograd dominate this fixture historically: 2 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Mladost Lučani
OFK Beograd
Mladost Lučani (10–12)
OFK Beograd (13–21)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Mladost Lučani
OFK Beograd
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Mladost Lučani
OFK Beograd
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Mladost Lučani | OFK Beograd |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16 | 9 |
| xPoints | 12.8 | 10.1 |
| xG per match | 0.91 | 1 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.19 | 0.44 |
| Playing style | Mladost Lučani | OFK Beograd |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.28 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.26 | 0.55 |
| xT per match | 0.65 | 0.88 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 0.93 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.2 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.67 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 241 | 322 |
| Passes against per match | 414 | 252 |
| Switches of play per match | 10.5 | 15.1 |
| Long balls per match | 23 | 26 |
| Set pieces | Mladost Lučani | OFK Beograd |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Corners per match | 3.1 | 3 |
| Corners against per match | 5.9 | 3.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.48 | 0.5 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.57 | 0.76 |
| Other | Mladost Lučani | OFK Beograd |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.63 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Saša Stamenković (Mladost Lučani) | Vuk Draškić (OFK Beograd) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 49 | 22 |
| Save % | 80% | 56% |
| xG prevented | 66% | 35% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Mladost Lučani vs OFK Beograd according to our model?
The model gives OFK Beograd a 36% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Mladost Lučani 33%, draw 31%, OFK Beograd 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.