01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Red Star Belgrade to win53%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Serbian Super League10°11 km/h
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Radnički 1923Possession controlvs
Red Star BelgradePossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Red Star Belgrade (53%)
Radnički 1923 vs Red Star Belgrade · Serbian Super League
1 · Radnički 1923 19%X 28%53% Red Star Belgrade · 2
19%
28%
53%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Radnički 1923 – Red Star Belgrade
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Radnički 1923 will attempt to leverage their possession control against a formidable Red Star Belgrade side known for their high press and dominant possession play. The hosts are riding a 7-match unbeaten streak in the league, providing them with some confidence. However, the visitors arrive with the upper hand, boasting three consecutive victories. The last five encounters between these teams have seen Red Star prevail four times, but it's a small sample; recent form and expected goals matter more here.
The probabilities heavily favor Red Star with a 53% chance of victory, and their attacking potential is emphasized by an expected goals tally of 1.76 compared to Radnički's 1.14. The model suggests the most likely outcomes are narrow wins or a draw, with 1-1 being the top predicted scoreline at 11%. Despite Radnički's unbeaten league run, the visitors' profile as a high-press team could disrupt Radnički’s possession game, pushing the edge towards Red Star.
A high-scoring match could be on the cards, as historically this fixture averages 3.4 goals per game. The over 2.5 goals market ticks in at 55%, with both teams likely to find the net at 57%. Given Red Star's superior xG of 2.4 per match, they are well-positioned to exploit any defensive lapses from the hosts, who concede an xGA of 1.0.
In terms of betting value, the lean here is toward a Red Star win, but the odds might be too short. A sharper angle could be found in the over 2.5 goals market. With past head-to-heads supporting this trend, a bet on over 2.5 goals at 55% probability presents potential value, especially if a bookmaker offers odds implying less than this likelihood.
Radnički 1923Form WDDWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #2xP/match #5Points #3
Key players
- Uroš SremčevićFxG 0.65 · xT 0.02
- Nemanja GlavčićFxG 0.14 · xT 0.15
- Issa BahFxG 0.68 · xT 0.13
Red Star BelgradeForm WDWWW
League ranking xG #1xGA #1xT #1xP/match #1Points #1
Key players
- Aleksandar KataiFxG 0.76 · xT 0.17
- Nayair TiknizyanLWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.33
- Yuta NakayamaRBxG 0.05 · xT 0.14
Match prediction: Radnički 1923 – Red Star Belgrade
Predicted score matrix
Red Star Belgrade →
Radnički 1923 →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.8%
0–19.4%
0–28.5%
0–35.0%
0–4+3.3%
1
1–05.9%
1–111.4%
1–29.7%
1–35.7%
1–4+3.7%
2
2–03.6%
2–16.3%
2–25.5%
2–33.3%
2–4+2.1%
3
3–01.4%
3–12.4%
3–22.1%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–00.5%
4+–10.9%
4+–20.8%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-210%
- 3.0-19%
- 4.0-29%
- 5.2-16%
Expected goals
1,14–1,76
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
115%
223%
322%
416%
5+17%
Under 2,545%
–
Over 2,555%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Red Star Belgrade to win53%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Aleksandar Katai to score35%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Aleksandar Katai to score35%
- Miloš Ristić to be booked25%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesRadnički 1923 1Draw 0Red Star Belgrade 4
Goals: 5–12 (⌀ 3,4)
Head-to-head based on Serbian Super League data since 2023.
Key facts
- Red Star Belgrade dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.4 goals per meeting on average.
- FK Radnicki 1923 are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
- Red Star Belgrade come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Radnički 1923
Red Star Belgrade
Radnički 1923 (17–9)
Red Star Belgrade (24–3)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Radnički 1923
Red Star Belgrade
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Radnički 1923
Red Star Belgrade
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Radnički 1923 | Red Star Belgrade |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 17 | 28 |
| xPoints | 14.4 | 20 |
| xG per match | 1.8 | 2.4 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 0.64 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.3 | 0.32 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.28 | 0.09 |
| Playing style | Radnički 1923 | Red Star Belgrade |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.61 | 0.74 |
| xT per match | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| xTA per match | 0.93 | 0.73 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.38 | 0.33 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.34 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 18 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.84 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.79 |
| Passes per match | 314 | 504 |
| Passes against per match | 218 | 257 |
| Switches of play per match | 20.4 | 43.3 |
| Long balls per match | 25 | 45 |
| Set pieces | Radnički 1923 | Red Star Belgrade |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 6.8 | 5 |
| Corners against per match | 4.4 | 3 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.59 | 0.65 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.63 |
| Other | Radnički 1923 | Red Star Belgrade |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.88 |
| The goalkeepers | Luka Lijeskić (Radnički 1923) | Matheus Lima Magalhães (Red Star Belgrade) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 25 | 25 |
| Save % | 74% | 89% |
| xG prevented | 54% | 67% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Radnički 1923 vs Red Star Belgrade according to our model?
The model gives Red Star Belgrade a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Radnički 1923 19%, draw 28%, Red Star Belgrade 53%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.