Serbian Super League12°13 km/h

    Läs på svenska
    FK IMT BeogradFK IMT BeogradPossession control
    vs
    Radnik SurdulicaRadnik SurdulicaPossession & high press
    The model's lean: 1 · FK IMT Beograd (53%)

    FK IMT Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica · Serbian Super League

    1 · FK IMT Beograd 53%X 27%20% Radnik Surdulica · 2

    Bet on this match

    NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
    BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
    LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

    18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

    Analysis: FK IMT Beograd – Radnik Surdulica

    Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

    FAKTA: Model probabilities: FK IMT Beograd 53%, draw 27%, FK Radnik Surdulica 20%. Model lean: FK IMT Beograd. Most likely scorelines: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (12%), 2-0 (11%). Expected goals: FK IMT Beograd 1.62, FK Radnik Surdulica 0.88. Over 2.5 goals: 46%. Both teams to score: 47%. Playing style: FK IMT Beograd profiles as possession control, FK Radnik Surdulica as possession & high press. Points: FK IMT Beograd 2 vs FK Radnik Surdulica 14 (edge FK Radnik Surdulica) xPoints: FK IMT Beograd 5.2 vs FK Radnik Surdulica 14.8 (edge FK Radnik Surdulica) xG per match: FK IMT Beograd 1.3 vs FK Radnik Surdulica 1.3 (edge FK Radnik Surdulica) xGA per match: FK IMT Beograd 0.7 vs FK Radnik Surdulica 1.5 (edge FK IMT Beograd)

    Corrected TEXT:

    A glance at the head-to-head record between FK IMT Beograd and Radnik Surdulica suggests a modest landscape due to the limited number of matchups. Thus, the focus shifts to form and expected goals. FK IMT Beograd's control-oriented style seems to contrast strikingly with Radnik Surdulica's high pressing game. This could lead to a tactical battle where the hosts’ preference for possession might neutralize the visitors' aggressive approach.

    Delving into the numbers, the model gives the home side a 53% chance of victory. Expected goals back up their edge, with IMT Beograd's defense showing a particularly robust xGA of 0.7 per match, significantly better than Radnik's 1.5. This defensive solidity provides a foundation for the predicted scorelines, with a 1-0 IMT win emerging as the most likely outcome at 13%.

    Points on the board might favor Radnik Surdulica, 14 to IMT’s 2, but the expected points (xPoints) tell a different story. IMT's 5.2 xPoints indicate underperformance on the scoreboard, suggesting they could be due for an uptick. Meanwhile, both teams share identical xG figures at 1.3 per match, which highlights Radnik's relative inefficiency given their more adventurous approach.

    From a betting perspective, FK IMT Beograd's likelihood of a low-scoring win aligns with the model's near-even split on total goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%. The home side's superior defensive metrics and the model's endorsement support their favorite status in this matchup.

    FK IMT BeogradFK IMT Beograd
    Form DLD
    League ranking xG #10xGA #2xT #12xP/match #2Points #15
    Key players
    • Moussa SissakoCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.07
    • Vasilije NovičićCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.03
    • Iván Martos CampilloLBxG 0.07 · xT 0.18
    Radnik SurdulicaRadnik Surdulica
    Form LWDDD
    League ranking xG #8xGA #10xT #7xP/match #8Points #6
    Key players
    • Vukašin BogdanovićFxG 0.64 · xT 0.01
    • Aleksandar PejovićCAMxG 0.04 · xT 0.36
    • Đorđe JovanovićLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.15

    Match prediction: FK IMT Beograd – Radnik Surdulica

    Predicted score matrix

    Radnik Surdulica →
    FK IMT Beograd →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–08.5%
    0–16.9%
    0–23.2%
    0–30.9%
    0–4+0.2%
    1
    1–012.9%
    1–112.0%
    1–25.2%
    1–31.5%
    1–4+0.4%
    2
    2–010.8%
    2–19.5%
    2–24.2%
    2–31.2%
    2–4+0.3%
    3
    3–05.8%
    3–15.1%
    3–22.3%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.2%
    4+
    4+–03.4%
    4+–13.0%
    4+–21.3%
    4+–30.4%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-013%
    2. 2.1-112%
    3. 3.2-011%
    4. 4.2-19%
    5. 5.0-09%
    Expected goals
    1,62–0,88
    Both teams to score
    47%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,554%
    @1.68
    Over 2,546%
    @2.08

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • FK IMT Beograd to win53%
    • Under 3.5 goals76%

    Combined probability

    39%

    Fair odds

    2.56

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • FK IMT Beograd to win53%
    • Under 2.5 goals54%
    • Wendkuuni Josué Tiendrébéogo to score31%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score47%
    • Over 2.5 goals46%
    • Wendkuuni Josué Tiendrébéogo to score31%
    • Darko Stojanović to be booked23%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    Bookmaker1 · FK IMT BeogradX2 · Radnik Surdulica
    Betfair Exchange1.121.131.12
    Betsafe1.753.354.30
    Nordicbet1.753.354.30

    Odds updated 3 Oct, 06:36

    Odds movement

    1+2 %
    55 %50 %

    1.72 → 1.75

    X+2 %
    30 %25 %

    3.30 → 3.35

    2-2 %
    23 %18 %

    4.40 → 4.30

    Over 2,50 %
    47 %42 %

    2.08 → 2.08

    Nordicbet · 2 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    FK IMT Beograd
    Radnik Surdulica
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    FK IMT Beograd (2–3)
    Radnik Surdulica (14–15)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    FK IMT Beograd
    Moussa Sissako: 125 passningar, xT 0.19SissakoIván Martos Campillo: 85 passningar, xT 0.5CampilloJulián Javier Delmás Germán: 77 passningar, xT 0.3GermánVasilije Novičić: 77 passningar, xT 0.07NovičićStefan Šapić: 74 passningar, xT -0.03ŠapićOgnjen Čančarević: 73 passningar, xT 0.19ČančarevićIbrahima Kébé: 53 passningar, xT 0.1KébéAleksandar Sedlar: 46 passningar, xT 0.06SedlarTadija Cojic: 44 passningar, xT -0.09CojicVladimir Radočaj: 29 passningar, xT 0.14RadočajKarl Kezy Fabien: 26 passningar, xT 0.11Fabien
    Radnik Surdulica
    David Stojanovic: 167 passningar, xT 0.29StojanovicSadick Abubakar: 159 passningar, xT 0.14AbubakarAleksandar Pejović: 154 passningar, xT 0.64PejovićUroš Lazić: 139 passningar, xT 0.53LazićMiloš Popović: 137 passningar, xT 0.17PopovićTijan Sonha Drammeh: 133 passningar, xT 0.47DrammehMartin Novaković: 126 passningar, xT 1.06NovakovićLazar Radojicic: 73 passningar, xT 0.03RadojicicVukašin Bogdanović: 62 passningar, xT -0.14BogdanovićEmmanuel Quarshie Jr.: 49 passningar, xT 0.27Jr.Stefan Ranđelović: 39 passningar, xT 0.03Ranđelović
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    FK IMT Beograd
    Moussa Sissako: 125 passningar, xT 0.19SissakoIván Martos Campillo: 85 passningar, xT 0.5CampilloJulián Javier Delmás Germán: 77 passningar, xT 0.3GermánVasilije Novičić: 77 passningar, xT 0.07NovičićStefan Šapić: 74 passningar, xT -0.03ŠapićOgnjen Čančarević: 73 passningar, xT 0.19ČančarevićIbrahima Kébé: 53 passningar, xT 0.1KébéAleksandar Sedlar: 46 passningar, xT 0.06SedlarTadija Cojic: 44 passningar, xT -0.09CojicVladimir Radočaj: 29 passningar, xT 0.14RadočajKarl Kezy Fabien: 26 passningar, xT 0.11Fabien
    Radnik Surdulica
    David Stojanovic: 167 passningar, xT 0.29StojanovicSadick Abubakar: 159 passningar, xT 0.14AbubakarAleksandar Pejović: 154 passningar, xT 0.64PejovićUroš Lazić: 139 passningar, xT 0.53LazićMiloš Popović: 137 passningar, xT 0.17PopovićTijan Sonha Drammeh: 133 passningar, xT 0.47DrammehMartin Novaković: 126 passningar, xT 1.06NovakovićLazar Radojicic: 73 passningar, xT 0.03RadojicicVukašin Bogdanović: 62 passningar, xT -0.14BogdanovićEmmanuel Quarshie Jr.: 49 passningar, xT 0.27Jr.Stefan Ranđelović: 39 passningar, xT 0.03Ranđelović

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceFK IMT BeogradRadnik Surdulica
    Points214
    xPoints5.214.8
    xG per match1.31.3
    xGA per match0.71.5
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.590.29
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.060.29
    Playing styleFK IMT BeogradRadnik Surdulica
    Build-up efficiency0.260.29
    Field tilt0.440.51
    xT per match0.831.1
    xTA per match0.711.4
    Won balls, offensive half2925
    Pressing intensity0.210.22
    Pressing efficiency0.30.3
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.28
    Entries into the box per match814
    Entries into the box against813
    Pass completion %0.690.71
    Pass completion % under pressure0.680.67
    Passes per match267284
    Passes against per match344338
    Switches of play per match14.317.4
    Long balls per match2927
    Set piecesFK IMT BeogradRadnik Surdulica
    xG from free kicks00.02
    Corners per match4.74.2
    Corners against per match1.74.8
    xG per corner0.010.03
    xGA per corner against0.010.02
    First touch, offensive corners %0.290.43
    First touch, defensive corners %0.40.5
    OtherFK IMT BeogradRadnik Surdulica
    Throw-in control0.810.74
    The goalkeepersOgnjen Čančarević (FK IMT Beograd)Stefan Ranđelović (Radnik Surdulica)
    Saves426
    Save %67%74%
    xG prevented55%36%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    FK IMT Beograd
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Radnik Surdulica
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins FK IMT Beograd vs Radnik Surdulica according to our model?

    The model gives FK IMT Beograd a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FK IMT Beograd 53%, draw 27%, Radnik Surdulica 20%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 46% and under at 54%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

    More matches in the league

    ČukaričkiČukarički
    3–0
    Radnički 1923Radnički 1923
    1 32%X 30%2 38%
    The model missed the outcome
    Radnik SurdulicaRadnik Surdulica
    0–0
    Red Star BelgradeRed Star Belgrade
    1 11%X 17%2 72%
    The model missed the outcome
    Novi PazarNovi Pazar
    1–4
    OFK BeogradOFK Beograd
    1 45%X 30%2 25%
    The model missed the outcome
    LeoVegas
    LeoVegas
    100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen

    Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80

    Hämta bonus
    ComeOn
    ComeOn
    Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.

    Se ComeOns villkor

    Hämta bonus
    Hajper
    Hajper
    Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.

    Se Hajpers villkor

    Hämta bonus

    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.