01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Železničar Pančevo to win71%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Serbian Super League14°7 km/h
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ZemunLow block & directvs
Železničar PančevoPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Železničar Pančevo (71%)
Zemun vs Železničar Pančevo · Serbian Super League
1 · Zemun 12%X 17%71% Železničar Pančevo · 2
17%
71%
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Analysis: Zemun – Železničar Pančevo
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: Zemun's struggle with defensive frailties collides starkly with Železničar Pančevo's relentless high-pressing approach in this intriguing Serbian Super League clash. The visitors dominate the probabilities with a 71% chance of victory, an edge underscored further by their commanding lead in expected goals and points. Železničar appears poised to exploit Zemun's vulnerabilities, particularly given Zemun's average xGA of 2.4.
Zemun's direct play style may offer moments of penetration, but their poor defensive record suggests they will likely spend much of the match on the back foot. With Železničar's xG per match at 1.8 and Zemun's at a meager 0.59, the hosts' offensive output has been exceedingly limited. Their three points this season came more from opponent inefficiency than their own merit.
In this lopsided contest, Železničar's high press is expected to suffocate Zemun's attempts to build from the back, likely leading to errors and turnovers in dangerous areas. Despite Zemun's home advantage, their meager three points don’t inspire confidence against a side that not only dominates in points but also in xPoints, with a gap of more than seven in the visitors' favor.
The model leans heavily on a Železničar victory, forecasting scorelines like 0-2 and 0-3, with a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 61%. This suggests that Zemun's defensive lapses will be capitalized upon efficiently. The 12% likelihood of a 0-2 result aligns with Železničar's strategy of controlling possession and dictating play.
For bettors seeking value, Pinnacle offers Železničar Pančevo at 1.50 odds. This valuation seems a fair reflection of the visitors' superiority on paper, providing a plausible avenue for those looking to back the away side in this fixture.
ZemunForm LLLDD
League ranking xG #15xGA #15xT #13xP/match #15Points #14
Key players
- Milan SpremoLWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.16
- Godswill VadzeRWxG 0.10 · xT 0.09
- Đorđe PetrovićFxG 0.05 · xT 0.06
Železničar PančevoForm WLWLW
League ranking xG #4xGA #4xT #5xP/match #7Points #5
Key players
- Mirko MilikićCBxG 0.08 · xT 0.16
- Nikola ĐuričićLBxG 0.10 · xT 0.14
- Nemanja VidojevićCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.09
Match prediction: Zemun – Železničar Pančevo
Predicted score matrix
Železničar Pančevo →
Zemun →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.5%
0–110.0%
0–212.2%
0–39.7%
0–4+10.1%
1
1–03.1%
1–18.1%
1–29.3%
1–37.4%
1–4+7.7%
2
2–01.3%
2–13.0%
2–23.6%
2–32.8%
2–4+3.0%
3
3–00.3%
3–10.8%
3–20.9%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–00.1%
4+–10.2%
4+–20.2%
4+–30.2%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.0-212%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.0-310%
- 4.1-29%
- 5.1-18%
Expected goals
0,76–2,38
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
418%
5+21%
Under 2,539%
@1.95
Over 2,561%
@1.75EV+6%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Železničar Pančevo to win71%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Kristian Šekularac to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals61%
- Kristian Šekularac to score23%
- Ognjen Ilic to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Železničar Pančevo71% probability@1.60BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
- 2 · Železničar Pančevo71% probability@1.60NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
- Over 3.539% probability@2.85BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Zemun | X | 2 · Železničar Pančevo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange | 1.12 | 1.13 | 1.12 |
| Betsafe | 4.70 | 3.70 | EV+ 13% 1.60 |
| Nordicbet | 4.70 | 3.70 | EV+ 13% 1.60 |
Odds updated 2 Oct, 07:36
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Zemun
Železničar Pančevo
Zemun (6–19)
Železničar Pančevo (14–10)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Zemun
Železničar Pančevo
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Zemun
Železničar Pančevo
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Zemun | Železničar Pančevo |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 14 |
| xPoints | 6.4 | 13.7 |
| xG per match | 0.59 | 1.8 |
| xGA per match | 2.4 | 0.87 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.12 | 0.32 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.44 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Zemun | Železničar Pančevo |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| Field tilt | 0.28 | 0.66 |
| xT per match | 0.79 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.18 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 20 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.69 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.67 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 234 | 434 |
| Passes against per match | 447 | 258 |
| Switches of play per match | 13.9 | 22.2 |
| Long balls per match | 26 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Zemun | Železničar Pančevo |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 3.2 | 5.6 |
| Corners against per match | 5.7 | 2.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.31 | 0.41 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| Other | Zemun | Železničar Pančevo |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.64 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Mladen Živković (Zemun) | Zoran Popović (Železničar Pančevo) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 50 | 17 |
| Save % | 76% | 63% |
| xG prevented | 65% | 58% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Zemun vs Železničar Pančevo according to our model?
The model gives Železničar Pančevo a 71% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Zemun 12%, draw 17%, Železničar Pančevo 71%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 0-2 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.