01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Celta Fortuna or draw (1X)67%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Segunda División14°13 km/h
Läs på svenska
Celta FortunaBalanced & physical1–1
CD TenerifePossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Celta Fortuna (40%)Best value by the model: Over 2,5 @ 2.13 (+14 %)
Celta Fortuna vs CD Tenerife · Segunda División
1 · Celta Fortuna 40%X 27%33% CD Tenerife · 2
40%
27%
33%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Celta Fortuna vs CD Tenerife (Segunda División, Monday, 19 October 2026): Celta Fortuna win 40%, draw 27%, CD Tenerife win 33%. Expected goals (xG): Celta Fortuna 1.49, CD Tenerife 1.33. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%. Double chance: Celta Fortuna or draw 67%, CD Tenerife or draw 60%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.
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Analysis: Celta Fortuna – CD Tenerife
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
CD Tenerife's slight edge in points and expected points creates an intriguing dynamic against RC Celta De Vigo B. The model sees Celta as the narrow favourite with a 40% chance of victory. While Tenerife has been efficient in points accumulation, their xG per match of 0.81 shows a side less likely to create high-quality chances compared to Celta's 1.1. This apparent inefficiency in front of goal could be pivotal.
Celta's balanced and physical approach might disrupt Tenerife's possession-based style, but their higher expected goals against (xGA) at 1.5 suggests vulnerability at the back. Tenerife concedes fewer opportunities with an xGA of 1.2, which might make them tougher to break down. However, with the model's most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 12% and expectations of goals, a scenario where neither side dominates seems plausible. The probability of over 2.5 goals at 54%, alongside both teams to score at 57%, aligns with a game that could see both finding the net.
The sharp angle lies in the over 2.5 goals market, where Betsafe, LeoVegas, and Nordicbet offer odds of 2.0, providing a 7% edge. It's a solid value play given the match dynamics and statistical leanings.
Celta FortunaForm LLDLW
League ranking xG #14xGA #19xT #16xP/match #20Points #14
Key players
- Aldrine Kipchirchir KibetRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.15
- Anxo Rodríguez ÁlvarezCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.04
- Enrique Ribes RecajCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.10
CD TenerifeForm WLDLD
League ranking xG #22xGA #11xT #22xP/match #12Points #12
Key players
- Ignacio Gil de Pareja VicentLWxG 0.09 · xT 0.16
- Christian Pierre Louis GomisFxG 0.20 · xT 0.06
- José León BernalCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.04
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Celta Fortuna 40% · Draw 27% · CD Tenerife 33%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - RC Celta de Vigo BBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,35fair 8,48+10 %
MissMatchresultat - TenerifeBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 9,66fair 10,63-9 %
MissMatch prediction: Celta Fortuna – CD Tenerife
Predicted score matrix
CD Tenerife →
Celta Fortuna →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.3%
0–17.5%
0–25.3%
0–32.3%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–08.5%
1–112.1%
1–27.9%
1–33.5%
1–4+1.6%
2
2–06.6%
2–18.8%
2–25.9%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.2%
3
3–03.3%
3–14.4%
3–22.9%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–12.3%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-28%
- 5.0-18%
Expected goals
1,49–1,33
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,546%
@1.76
Over 2,554%
@2.13EV+9%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Celta Fortuna or draw (1X)67%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Andrés Antañón Vieites to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals54%
- Andrés Antañón Vieites to score22%
- Jesus Alvarez Aguado to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Over 2.554% probability@2.13PinnacleEV+14%reference odds
- Over 3.531% probability@3.50BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
- Over 3.531% probability@3.50NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Celta Fortuna | X | 2 · CD Tenerife |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 1% 2.55 | 3.05 | 2.65 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 1% 2.55 | 3.20 | 2.65 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 1% 2.55 | 3.05 | 2.65 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 9% 2.75 | 3.18 | 2.80 |
Odds updated 19 Oct, 13:35
Odds movement
1+4 %
38 %33 %
2.65 → 2.75
X-2 %
32 %27 %
3.24 → 3.18
2+3 %
37 %32 %
2.73 → 2.80
Over 2,5+4 %
48 %43 %
2.05 → 2.13
Pinnacle · 9 recorded price levels · 17/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Celta Fortuna
CD Tenerife
Celta Fortuna (14–15)
CD Tenerife (11–13)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Celta Fortuna
CD Tenerife
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Celta Fortuna
CD Tenerife
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Celta Fortuna | CD Tenerife |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 12 |
| xPoints | 10 | 12.2 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 0.81 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.32 | 0.12 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.43 | 0.3 |
| Playing style | Celta Fortuna | CD Tenerife |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.26 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.49 | 0.44 |
| xT per match | 0.84 | 0.55 |
| xTA per match | 0.92 | 0.93 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 21 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.29 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.19 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 8 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.72 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.75 | 0.65 |
| Passes per match | 368 | 284 |
| Passes against per match | 375 | 444 |
| Switches of play per match | 22.2 | 24.3 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 34 |
| Set pieces | Celta Fortuna | CD Tenerife |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.01 | 0.04 |
| Corners per match | 3.6 | 4.3 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 3.4 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.24 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.6 |
| Other | Celta Fortuna | CD Tenerife |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.69 | 0.68 |
| The goalkeepers | Jorge Carrillo Balea (Celta Fortuna) | Daniel Martín Fernández (CD Tenerife) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 32 | 16 |
| Save % | 68% | 55% |
| xG prevented | 49% | 37% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Leganés – Córdoba16 October 2026
- Real Sociedad B – Almería17 October 2026
- Sporting Gijón – Albacete17 October 2026
- Las Palmas – Castellon17 October 2026
- Eibar – Mallorca17 October 2026
- Granada – Cádiz18 October 2026
- Real Valladolid – Eldense18 October 2026
- Burgos – Sabadell18 October 2026
- Girona – FC Andorra18 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Celta Fortuna vs CD Tenerife according to our model?
The model gives Celta Fortuna a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Celta Fortuna 40%, draw 27%, CD Tenerife 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 54% and under at 46%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Celta Fortuna vs CD Tenerife?
The model expects 1.49 goals (xG) for Celta Fortuna and 1.33 for CD Tenerife, 2.83 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Celta Fortuna or draw (1X) 67%, CD Tenerife or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.