Degerfors vs Kalmar FF Prediction: Away win 40% (19 Oct 2026)

Swedish Allsvenskan19 October 2026 19:00 CESTStora Valla, Örebro2°6 km/h

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DegerforsCounter-attacks & crosses

Kalmar FFPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Kalmar FF (40%)

1 · Degerfors 30%X 30%40% Kalmar FF · 2

30%

40%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Degerfors vs Kalmar FF (Swedish Allsvenskan, Monday, 19 October 2026): Degerfors win 30%, draw 30%, Kalmar FF win 40%. Expected goals (xG): Degerfors 1.27, Kalmar FF 1.23. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. Double chance: Degerfors or draw 60%, Kalmar FF or draw 70%. Prediction updated Monday, 12 October 2026.

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Analysis: Degerfors – Kalmar FF

Erik Lindberg · 19 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

The sharpest play, considering both the model's probabilities and the available odds, points to a fair-priced line on the away side. With both Betsafe and Nordicbet offering Kalmar at odds of 2.48, matching a model probability of 40%, the match is priced accurately with 0% edge rather than a clear value opportunity. Kalmar's losing streak and Degerfors' marginal point advantage add a layer of intrigue, but the numbers put Kalmar below a coin-flip (40%) to win and break their slump here.

Kalmar FF have hit a rough patch with five consecutive losses, yet the underlying numbers hint at something more complex as they face Degerfors. While the visitors currently trail by a single point in the standings, their xPoints of 31.0 starkly contrast with Degerfors' 23.4. This suggests that Kalmar have been performing well below their expected outcomes, possibly due to a run of bad luck or other factors not captured by the raw results.

Despite Kalmar's recent struggles, they have dominated the head-to-head meetings with Degerfors since 2023, winning all three encounters. Granted, this is a small sample size and should be weighed less heavily than current form and underlying metrics. Kalmar's possession-based style will likely clash with Degerfors' counter-attacking approach, possibly leading to a tight contest where small margins could make the difference.

With expected goals indicating a near-even battle—Degerfors at 1.27 and Kalmar at 1.23—the most probable scorelines sit at 1-1 and 0-1, both reflecting the model's lean towards a low-scoring affair. The over/under on 2.5 goals stands at just 45%, suggesting a cautious approach to expecting fireworks. Furthermore, both teams to score is nearly a coin flip at 51%, reinforcing the idea of a closely fought game without a barrage of goals.

Degerfors

Form LWLLD

League ranking xG #16xGA #12xT #11xP/match #15Points #13

Key players

Dijan VukojevicFxG 0.25 · xT 0.21
Nahom Girmai NetabayRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.31
CR Sebastian OhlssonCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.08

Kalmar FF

Form LLLLL

League ranking xG #10xGA #9xT #4xP/match #9Points #14

Key players

Carl GustafssonCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.30
Lars SætraCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.05
Rony JanssonRBxG 0.08 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: Degerfors – Kalmar FF

Predicted score matrix

Kalmar FF →

Degerfors →

0–08.6%

0–19.8%

0–26.2%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.0%

1–010.1%

1–113.2%

1–27.9%

1–33.2%

1–4+1.3%

2–06.6%

2–18.1%

2–25.0%

2–32.0%

2–4+0.8%

3–02.8%

3–13.4%

3–22.1%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.3%

4+–01.2%

4+–11.4%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.1-010%
3.0-110%
4.0-09%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,27–1,23

Both teams to score

51%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,5

09%

120%

226%

321%

413%

5+11%

Under 2,555%

@1.77

Over 2,545%

@2.10

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Kalmar FF or draw (X2)63%
Under 3.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Kalmar FF or draw (X2)63%
Under 2.5 goals55%
Charlie Rosenqvist to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score51%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Ludvig Fritzson to score22%
Nahom Girmai Netabay to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Kalmar FF40% probability@2.48BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
2 · Kalmar FF40% probability@2.48NordicbetEV+0%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Degerfors	X	2 · Kalmar FF
Betsafe	2.97	3.21	EV+ 0% 2.48
LeoVegas	3.00	3.30	2.40
Nordicbet	2.97	3.21	EV+ 0% 2.48
Pinnacle	3.23	3.25	2.35

Odds updated 19 Oct, 18:35

Odds movement

1+8 %

33 %28 %

2.99 → 3.23

X+1 %

32 %27 %

3.23 → 3.25

2-3 %

42 %37 %

2.42 → 2.35

Over 2,5+4 %

49 %44 %

2.01 → 2.10

Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 19/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Degerfors 0Draw 0Kalmar FF 3

Goals: 3–7 (⌀ 3,3)

Head-to-head based on Allsvenskan data since 2023.

Key facts

Kalmar FF have lost 5 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Degerfors

Kalmar FF

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Degerfors (20–35)

Kalmar FF (21–37)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Degerfors

Kalmar FF

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Degerfors

Kalmar FF

The teams in numbers

Performance	Degerfors	Kalmar FF
Points	20	19
xPoints	23.4	31
xG per match	0.89	1.2
xGA per match	1.6	1.3
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.32	0.2

Playing style	Degerfors	Kalmar FF
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.31
Field tilt	0.43	0.49
xT per match	1.4	1.5
xTA per match	1.4	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	32	31
Pressing intensity	0.48	0.52
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.22
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.23
Entries into the box per match	11	16
Entries into the box against	15	14
Pass completion %	0.79	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.77
Passes per match	356	402
Passes against per match	421	444
Switches of play per match	14	13.6
Long balls per match	28	29

Set pieces	Degerfors	Kalmar FF
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.11
Corners per match	4.7	4.8
Corners against per match	5.4	5.5
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.26	0.39
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.62

Other	Degerfors	Kalmar FF
Throw-in control	0.54	0.62

The goalkeepers	Matvei Igonen (Degerfors)	Samuel Brolin (Kalmar FF)
Saves	90	59
Save %	72%	70%
xG prevented	45%	50%
Claims	111 (91%)	86 (89%)

Teams & more matches this round

Degerfors

Fixtures, form & tips

Kalmar FF

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Degerfors vs Kalmar FF according to our model?

The model gives Kalmar FF a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Degerfors 30%, draw 30%, Kalmar FF 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 45% and under at 55%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Degerfors vs Kalmar FF?

The model expects 1.27 goals (xG) for Degerfors and 1.23 for Kalmar FF, 2.49 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Degerfors or draw (1X) 60%, Kalmar FF or draw (X2) 70% and no draw (12) 70%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.