01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Assyriska FF or draw (1X)69%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Swedish Ettan10°9,9 mm39 km/h
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Assyriska FFCounter-attacks & crossesvs
ArlandaCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Assyriska FF (40%)Soft draw
Assyriska FF vs Arlanda · Swedish Ettan
1 · Assyriska FF 40%X 25%35% Arlanda · 2
40%
25%
35%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Assyriska FF vs Arlanda (Swedish Ettan, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Assyriska FF win 40%, draw 25%, Arlanda win 35%. Expected goals (xG): Assyriska FF 1.76, Arlanda 1.42. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%. Double chance: Assyriska FF or draw 65%, Arlanda or draw 60%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.
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Analysis: Assyriska FF – Arlanda
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
With FC Arlanda holding a points advantage of 48 to Assyriska FF's 35, the visitors appear stronger this season. However, the expected goals tilt slightly in favor of the hosts, 1.76 to 1.42, suggesting a more even contest than the points table implies. Assyriska's 40% win probability, as indicated by the model, positions them as slight favorites despite trailing in the head-to-head, with a small sample size of just three recent encounters (0W 1D 2L).
The tactical approach of both teams is strikingly similar, relying on counter attacks and crosses. This symmetry might lead to a congested midfield battle where neither side can establish dominance. The prediction leans towards a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline (11%), closely followed by a possible 2-1 victory for the hosts. Despite the wet conditions, which often suppress goals, the model suggests a 62% chance for over 2.5 goals, indicating that we should still expect a reasonably open game.
Odds of 2.62 on Assyriska at Betsafe and Nordicbet present a 5% edge according to the model’s 40% probability assessment, marking this as the sharper betting angle. While not a guarantee, the home side offers value for those willing to back them against the odds.
Assyriska FFForm WLLWL
League ranking xG #21xGA #16xT #12xP/match #14Points #18
Key players
- Kevin JarrettCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.10
- Victor ÅsbergCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.10
- Sebastian WändinRWBxG 0.03 · xT 0.17
ArlandaForm WWWLL
League ranking xG #19xGA #17xT #16xP/match #13Points #6
Key players
- Mario ButrosCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.26
- Mark GorgosCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.05
- Leonard KleistRBxG 0.09 · xT 0.16
Match prediction: Assyriska FF – Arlanda
Predicted score matrix
Arlanda →
Assyriska FF →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.5%
0–15.6%
0–24.2%
0–32.0%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–07.0%
1–110.7%
1–27.4%
1–33.5%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–06.4%
2–19.1%
2–26.5%
2–33.1%
2–4+1.5%
3
3–03.8%
3–15.3%
3–23.8%
3–31.8%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–02.5%
4+–13.5%
4+–22.5%
4+–31.2%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-27%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.2-26%
Expected goals
1,76–1,42
Both teams to score
63%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
@2.58
Over 2,562%
@1.46
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Assyriska FF or draw (1X)69%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Felix Felder Aaltonen to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score63%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Felix Felder Aaltonen to score24%
- Kevin Jarrett to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Assyriska FF40% probability@2.75BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
- 1 · Assyriska FF40% probability@2.75NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
- 1 · Assyriska FF40% probability@2.70LeoVegasEV+8%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Assyriska FF | X | 2 · Arlanda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 10% 2.75 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 8% 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 10% 2.75 | 3.60 | 2.15 |
Odds updated 25 Oct, 10:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Arlanda win since 21 October — the odds have shortened from 2.35 to 2.15 (−9%).
1+9 %
37 %32 %
2.52 → 2.75
X+3 %
27 %22 %
3.50 → 3.60
2-9 %
43 %38 %
2.35 → 2.15
Nordicbet · 7 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 25/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesAssyriska FF 0Draw 1Arlanda 2
Goals: 1–4 (⌀ 1,7)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Assyriska FF
Arlanda
Assyriska FF (45–48)
Arlanda (47–34)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Assyriska FF
Arlanda
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Assyriska FF
Arlanda
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Assyriska FF | Arlanda |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 35 | 48 |
| xPoints | 37.9 | 38 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.2 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Assyriska FF | Arlanda |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.38 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.43 | 0.42 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.46 | 0.51 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.26 | 0.3 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.68 |
| Passes per match | 307 | 257 |
| Passes against per match | 395 | 334 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.4 | 18 |
| Long balls per match | 33 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Assyriska FF | Arlanda |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Corners per match | 4.8 | 3.7 |
| Corners against per match | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.42 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.7 | 0.57 |
| Other | Assyriska FF | Arlanda |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.56 | 0.44 |
| The goalkeepers | Kingdom Osayi (Assyriska FF) | Adam Smedberg Lagh (Arlanda) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 74 | 104 |
| Save % | 67% | 76% |
| xG prevented | 40% | 58% |
| Claims | 125 (89%) | 149 (93%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Laholm – Olympic24 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Gefle – FBK Karlstad24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Hässleholms IF – Skövde AIK24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- FC Trollhättan – Jönköpings Södra24 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Assyriska FF vs Arlanda according to our model?
The model gives Assyriska FF a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Assyriska FF 40%, draw 25%, Arlanda 35%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 63% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Assyriska FF vs Arlanda?
The model expects 1.76 goals (xG) for Assyriska FF and 1.42 for Arlanda, 3.18 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Assyriska FF or draw (1X) 65%, Arlanda or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.