01 · 2 legs
Safe
- FBK Karlstad to win49%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
Swedish Ettan7°16 km/h
Läs på svenska
FBK KarlstadCounter-attacks & crosses3–1
KarlbergPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · FBK Karlstad (49%)Best value by the model: 2 · Karlberg @ 4.35 (+23 %)
FBK Karlstad vs Karlberg · Swedish Ettan
1 · FBK Karlstad 49%X 23%28% Karlberg · 2
49%
23%
28%
Prediction summary
Final score 3–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for FBK Karlstad vs Karlberg (Swedish Ettan, Saturday, 17 October 2026): FBK Karlstad win 49%, draw 23%, Karlberg win 28%. Expected goals (xG): FBK Karlstad 1.83, Karlberg 1.42. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%. Double chance: FBK Karlstad or draw 72%, Karlberg or draw 51%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: FBK Karlstad – Karlberg
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
With FBK Karlstad sitting on 43 points against Karlberg's 33, the home side appears to have the upper hand. However, their clash in the Ettan is more balanced than it seems. While Karlstad has a slight edge in expected goals per match and expected points, the odds suggest an opportunity for punters willing to back Karlberg. Betsafe and Nordicbet both offer a 3.75 payout for an away victory, which presents a 6% value edge given the model's 28% win probability for the visitors.
Despite Karlstad's preference for counterattacks and crosses, their 49% chance of winning isn't overwhelming, especially against a Karlberg side known for possession control. The head-to-head record is dead even with one win, one draw, and one loss apiece since 2023 — a small sample that doesn't decisively tip the scales either way. But in terms of recent form, Karlstad's slightly superior xG and xGA metrics make them marginal favorites.
Goal projections tell a compelling story. The expected goals tally of 1.83 for the hosts against 1.42 for the visitors suggests a competitive clash with goals likely at both ends. In fact, both teams to score is considered 64%, and the probability of over 2.5 goals sits at 63%. The model's most likely scoreline of 1-1 (10%) edges towards a tight contest, but 2-1 (9%) and 1-2 (7%) are close behind, indicating potential for a more open affair.
In the end, the allure of Karlberg at 3.75 odds can't be ignored, particularly with the 6% value edge identified. While Karlstad may hold slight statistical advantages, backing the visitors presents an enticing opportunity for bettors hunting value. As such, those odds should spark interest among those looking for an unorthodox angle into this matchup.
FBK KarlstadForm DDWDL
League ranking xG #10xGA #10xT #7xP/match #2Points #12
Key players
- Linus FredrikssonRWxG 0.11 · xT 0.21
- Alexander HagelbergCBxG 0.07 · xT 0.14
- Michael Aduragbemi OluwayemiCDMxG 0.10 · xT 0.12
KarlbergForm LLDWD
League ranking xG #14xGA #19xT #19xP/match #14Points #20
Key players
- Nino GeigerCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
- Noah Tesfai NegashLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.25
- Ayo Rupia-EllisRBxG 0.14 · xT 0.12
Final score
3 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: FBK Karlstad 49% · Draw 23% · Karlberg 28%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Karlbergs BKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 11,01fair 9,46+16 %
MissMatchresultat - FBK KarlstadBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,19fair 5,66-26 %
HitMatch prediction: FBK Karlstad – Karlberg
Predicted score matrix
Karlberg →
FBK Karlstad →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.1%
0–15.2%
0–23.9%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–06.8%
1–110.3%
1–27.1%
1–33.4%
1–4+1.6%
2
2–06.5%
2–19.2%
2–26.6%
2–33.1%
2–4+1.5%
3
3–04.0%
3–15.6%
3–24.0%
3–31.9%
3–4+0.9%
4+
4+–02.8%
4+–13.9%
4+–22.8%
4+–31.3%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-27%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.2-27%
Expected goals
1,83–1,42
Both teams to score
64%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+23%
Under 2,537%
@2.40
Over 2,563%
@1.50
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- FBK Karlstad to win49%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Adam Bertilsson to score32%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score64%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Adam Bertilsson to score32%
- Lukas Sietsema to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Karlberg28% probability@4.35LeoVegasEV+23%reference odds
- 2 · Karlberg28% probability@4.20BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
- 2 · Karlberg28% probability@4.20NordicbetEV+19%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · FBK Karlstad | X | 2 · Karlberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.62 | 3.95 | EV+ 19% 4.20 |
| LeoVegas | 1.60 | 3.95 | EV+ 23% 4.35 |
| Nordicbet | 1.62 | 3.95 | EV+ 19% 4.20 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 15:38
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a FBK Karlstad win since 12 October — the odds have shortened from 2.02 to 1.62 (−20%).
1-20 %
60 %40 %
2.02 → 1.62
X+11 %
34 %14 %
3.55 → 3.95
2+40 %
35 %15 %
3.00 → 4.20
Betsafe · 16 recorded price levels · 12/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesFBK Karlstad 1Draw 1Karlberg 1
Goals: 3–5 (⌀ 2,7)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
FBK Karlstad
Karlberg
FBK Karlstad (41–36)
Karlberg (36–44)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
FBK Karlstad
Karlberg
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
FBK Karlstad
Karlberg
The teams in numbers
| Performance | FBK Karlstad | Karlberg |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43 | 33 |
| xPoints | 42.4 | 36.7 |
| xG per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.3 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.33 |
| Playing style | FBK Karlstad | Karlberg |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 36 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.49 | 0.53 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 15 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 12 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.72 | 0.82 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.65 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 285 | 376 |
| Passes against per match | 417 | 374 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.6 | 13.1 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 28 |
| Set pieces | FBK Karlstad | Karlberg |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| Corners per match | 5.3 | 4.5 |
| Corners against per match | 4.3 | 4.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.38 | 0.47 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| Other | FBK Karlstad | Karlberg |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.5 | 0.62 |
| The goalkeepers | Vincent Johansson (FBK Karlstad) | Argyrios Gkoulios (Karlberg) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 70 | 62 |
| Save % | 69% | 70% |
| xG prevented | 56% | 50% |
| Claims | 105 (91%) | 77 (90%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Lunds BK – Trelleborgs FF16 October 2026 19:00 CEST
- IFK Stocksund – Enköpings SK16 October 2026 19:30 CEST
- Ängelholm – Laholm17 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Tvååker – Rosengård17 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Arlanda – Järfälla17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Jönköpings Södra – AFC Malmö17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Skövde AIK – Eskilsminne17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Åtvidaberg – Hässleholms IF17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Stockholm Internazionale – Gefle17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins FBK Karlstad vs Karlberg according to our model?
The model gives FBK Karlstad a 49% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FBK Karlstad 49%, draw 23%, Karlberg 28%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in FBK Karlstad vs Karlberg?
The model expects 1.83 goals (xG) for FBK Karlstad and 1.42 for Karlberg, 3.26 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
FBK Karlstad or draw (1X) 72%, Karlberg or draw (X2) 51% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.