01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Rosengård or draw (X2)66%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Swedish Ettan9°19 km/h
Läs på svenska
TvååkerCounter-attacks & crosses1–1
RosengårdPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 2 · Rosengård (44%)Best value by the model: 1 · Tvååker @ 3.20 (+2 %)
Tvååker vs Rosengård · Swedish Ettan
1 · Tvååker 32%X 24%44% Rosengård · 2
32%
24%
44%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Tvååker vs Rosengård (Swedish Ettan, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Tvååker win 32%, draw 24%, Rosengård win 44%. Expected goals (xG): Tvååker 1.40, Rosengård 1.55. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Tvååker or draw 56%, Rosengård or draw 68%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
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Analysis: Tvååker – Rosengård
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: A close look at the matchup between Tvååker and Rosengård reveals a clash of contrasting styles that could shape the outcome. While the hosts lean heavily on counterattacks and crossing, Rosengård's preference for possession and high pressing is likely to dictate the tempo. The numbers suggest Rosengård's superior overall quality and tactical approach might edge them ahead.
Despite having only a single head-to-head encounter in 2023, which Tvååker won, this small sample size offers little predictive power against Rosengård's more consistent form this season. With Rosengård at 39 points and Tvååker at 34, and expected points (xPoints) further skewing towards the visitors (42.2 to 33.6), there's a clear indication of Rosengård's edge. They average 1.6 xG per match compared to Tvååker's 1.2, coupled with a tighter defense allowing just 1.0 xGA per match to Tvååker’s 1.6.
The model leans towards a Rosengård victory with a 44% win probability, compared to Tvååker’s 32%. The most probable scorelines, such as 1-1 and 1-2, suggest a competitive but slightly tilted battle in favor of the visitors. Expected goals at 1.55 for Rosengård and 1.40 for Tvååker indicate a likely hard-fought contest on both ends.
For punters, the game holds value on a couple of fronts. The over 2.5 goals market is intriguing with a 57% likelihood, and the model's lean toward Rosengård, supported by the expected goals metrics, frames them as the side more likely to capitalize on their possession and press.
TvååkerForm LLLLD
League ranking xG #25xGA #25xT #13xP/match #21Points #17
Key players
- Melvin SjölandRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.32
- Isak WimanCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.02
- Gabriel GustavssonLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.19
RosengårdForm LDWLD
League ranking xG #8xGA #5xT #11xP/match #4Points #13
Key players
- Kalle LarssonCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.10
- Jens LynardRBxG 0.03 · xT 0.13
- Emmanuel OnotuLWxG 0.19 · xT 0.16
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Tvååker 32% · Draw 24% · Rosengård 44%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Tvååkers IFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,76fair 9,56-8 %
MissMatchresultat - FC RosengårdBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,46fair 7,78-30 %
MissMatch prediction: Tvååker – Rosengård
Predicted score matrix
Rosengård →
Tvååker →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.5%
0–17.8%
0–26.3%
0–33.3%
0–4+1.8%
1
1–07.0%
1–111.7%
1–28.8%
1–34.6%
1–4+2.5%
2
2–05.1%
2–17.9%
2–26.2%
2–33.2%
2–4+1.8%
3
3–02.4%
3–13.7%
3–22.9%
3–31.5%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.8%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.4%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,40–1,55
Both teams to score
60%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
@2.18
Over 2,557%
@1.60
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Rosengård or draw (X2)66%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Argjend Malaj to score26%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score60%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Alfred Ajdarevic to score29%
- Frederik Lesley Schmidt Petersen to be booked18%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Tvååker32% probability@3.20BetsafeEV+2%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Tvååker | X | 2 · Rosengård |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 2% 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.00 |
| LeoVegas | 3.05 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
| Nordicbet | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.05 |
Odds updated 17 Oct, 12:37
Odds movement
1-7 %
34 %24 %
3.35 → 3.10
X-7 %
31 %21 %
3.65 → 3.40
2+9 %
50 %40 %
1.88 → 2.05
Nordicbet · 10 recorded price levels · 12/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesTvååker 1Draw 0Rosengård 0
Goals: 1–0 (⌀ 1)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Tvååker
Rosengård
Tvååker (34–40)
Rosengård (42–38)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Tvååker
Rosengård
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Tvååker
Rosengård
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Tvååker | Rosengård |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 34 | 39 |
| xPoints | 33.6 | 42.2 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.22 | 0.37 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.18 |
| Playing style | Tvååker | Rosengård |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.4 |
| Field tilt | 0.41 | 0.6 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 33 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.28 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 17 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.73 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 348 | 387 |
| Passes against per match | 396 | 353 |
| Switches of play per match | 18.6 | 16.4 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Tvååker | Rosengård |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| Corners per match | 3.7 | 5.9 |
| Corners against per match | 6.7 | 3.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.42 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.6 | 0.65 |
| Other | Tvååker | Rosengård |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| The goalkeepers | Alexander Capocci Nielsen (Tvååker) | Alexander Cederfelt (Rosengård) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 105 | 56 |
| Save % | 73% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 62% | 72% |
| Claims | 109 (89%) | 105 (91%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Ängelholm – Laholm17 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Arlanda – Järfälla17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- FBK Karlstad – Karlberg17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Jönköpings Södra – AFC Malmö17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Skövde AIK – Eskilsminne17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Åtvidaberg – Hässleholms IF17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Stockholm Internazionale – Gefle17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Tvååker vs Rosengård according to our model?
The model gives Rosengård a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Tvååker 32%, draw 24%, Rosengård 44%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Tvååker vs Rosengård?
The model expects 1.40 goals (xG) for Tvååker and 1.55 for Rosengård, 2.96 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Tvååker or draw (1X) 56%, Rosengård or draw (X2) 68% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.