01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Lunds BK or draw (1X)67%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Swedish Ettan14°1,8 mm18 km/h
Läs på svenska
Lunds BKPossession control2–4
Trelleborgs FFPossession & high pressThe model's lean: 1 · Lunds BK (37%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.12 (+3 %)
Lunds BK vs Trelleborgs FF · Swedish Ettan
1 · Lunds BK 37%X 27%36% Trelleborgs FF · 2
37%
27%
36%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–4. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Lunds BK vs Trelleborgs FF (Swedish Ettan, Friday, 16 October 2026): Lunds BK win 37%, draw 27%, Trelleborgs FF win 36%. Expected goals (xG): Lunds BK 1.46, Trelleborgs FF 1.29. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. Double chance: Lunds BK or draw 64%, Trelleborgs FF or draw 63%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Lunds BK – Trelleborgs FF
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
The head-to-head record between Lunds BK and Trelleborgs FF is practically nonexistent, with just a single draw in their only meeting since 2023. This means past encounters offer little insight into tomorrow's clash. Instead, the focus shifts to their current form and underlying numbers, which paint a compelling picture. Trelleborgs arrive in stellar form, riding a wave of six consecutive victories and having found the net in the last 12 league games. This scoring spree contrasts with Lunds BK's solid but less flashy form.
The model gives a slight edge to Lunds BK with a 37% win probability, just edging out Trelleborgs' 36%. This is despite the visitors holding a significant points advantage in the standings (57 vs. 44). However, when it comes to expected points (xPoints), Lunds BK and Trelleborgs sit neck-and-neck, with the hosts having a slight edge. Lunds BK's possession-based style could just tip the scales, especially given their historical 60% win rate at home.
Expected goals suggest a tight contest, with Lunds BK predicted to score 1.46 and Trelleborgs 1.29. The most likely scoreline, 1-1 (12%), aligns closely with this. Yet, the market somewhat favors goals, hinting at over 2.5 goals just over half the time (52%), while both teams are expected to score 56% of the time.
The sharpest angle here lies in exploiting the betting market's skew on goals. Despite the model's lean towards a moderate scoring game, value emerges on the under. With Betsafe offering odds of 2.18 for under 2.5 goals—5% above the model's rated probability—this presents a calculated opportunity. Both Betsafe and Nordicbet price this the same, allowing savvy bettors to capitalize on what the numbers suggest: a game that may not exceed 2.5 goals.
Lunds BKForm WLLLW
League ranking xG #1xGA #9xT #14xP/match #6Points #9
Key players
- Bozidar VelickovicCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
- Alexander NilssonLWxG 0.33 · xT 0.20
- Gustav SågängerLBxG 0.04 · xT 0.11
Trelleborgs FFForm WWWWW
League ranking xG #3xGA #6xT #6xP/match #5Points #2
Key players
- Jesper ModigCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.14
- Ammar AsaniCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
- Kofi Fosuhene AsareFxG 0.39 · xT 0.07
Final score
2 – 4
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Lunds BK 37% · Draw 27% · Trelleborgs FF 36%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Lunds BKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,76fair 9,01-25 %
MissMatchresultat - Trelleborgs FFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,18fair 11,51-38 %
HitMatch prediction: Lunds BK – Trelleborgs FF
Predicted score matrix
Trelleborgs FF →
Lunds BK →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.8%
0–17.9%
0–25.3%
0–32.3%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–09.0%
1–112.4%
1–27.8%
1–33.3%
1–4+1.4%
2
2–06.8%
2–18.8%
2–25.6%
2–32.4%
2–4+1.0%
3
3–03.3%
3–14.3%
3–22.7%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.7%
4+–12.1%
4+–21.4%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-09%
- 3.2-19%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-28%
Expected goals
1,46–1,29
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,70
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,548%
@2.12EV+3%
Over 2,552%
@1.65
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Lunds BK or draw (1X)67%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Emil Lindman to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- Emil Lindman to score25%
- Isak Orajärvi to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.548% probability@2.12BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
- Under 2.548% probability@2.12LeoVegasEV+3%reference odds
- Under 2.548% probability@2.12NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Lunds BK | X | 2 · Trelleborgs FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.42 | 3.40 | 2.52 |
| LeoVegas | 2.40 | 3.35 | 2.55 |
| Nordicbet | 2.42 | 3.40 | 2.52 |
Odds updated 16 Oct, 18:37
Odds movement
1-1 %
41 %36 %
2.45 → 2.42
X-1 %
29 %24 %
3.45 → 3.40
2+3 %
38 %33 %
2.45 → 2.52
Nordicbet · 12 recorded price levels · 11/10/2026 → 16/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesLunds BK 0Draw 1Trelleborgs FF 0
Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Key facts
- Trelleborgs FF come into this round on 6 straight wins.
- Trelleborgs FF have scored in 12 consecutive league matches.
- Lunds BK win 60% of their home matches all-time (58 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Lunds BK
Trelleborgs FF
Lunds BK (50–32)
Trelleborgs FF (57–28)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Lunds BK
Trelleborgs FF
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Lunds BK
Trelleborgs FF
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Lunds BK | Trelleborgs FF |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44 | 57 |
| xPoints | 41.2 | 41.1 |
| xG per match | 1.7 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.2 | 1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.42 | 0.35 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.11 |
| Playing style | Lunds BK | Trelleborgs FF |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.58 | 0.6 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 39 | 37 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.52 | 0.58 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.31 | 0.32 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.76 | 0.76 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 369 | 351 |
| Passes against per match | 308 | 298 |
| Switches of play per match | 21.1 | 16.9 |
| Long balls per match | 39 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Lunds BK | Trelleborgs FF |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.16 | 0.18 |
| Corners per match | 5.7 | 5.6 |
| Corners against per match | 4.4 | 4.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.51 | 0.37 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.69 |
| Other | Lunds BK | Trelleborgs FF |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| The goalkeepers | Andreas Alexandersson (Lunds BK) | Malte Påhlsson (Trelleborgs FF) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 78 | 73 |
| Save % | 71% | 74% |
| xG prevented | 42% | 40% |
| Claims | 151 (92%) | 165 (92%) |
Teams & more matches this round
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- Jönköpings Södra – AFC Malmö17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Skövde AIK – Eskilsminne17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Åtvidaberg – Hässleholms IF17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Stockholm Internazionale – Gefle17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Lunds BK vs Trelleborgs FF according to our model?
The model gives Lunds BK a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Lunds BK 37%, draw 27%, Trelleborgs FF 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Lunds BK vs Trelleborgs FF?
The model expects 1.46 goals (xG) for Lunds BK and 1.29 for Trelleborgs FF, 2.74 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Lunds BK or draw (1X) 64%, Trelleborgs FF or draw (X2) 63% and no draw (12) 73%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.