Arlanda vs Järfälla: Prediction & Odds (17 Oct 2026)

Swedish Ettan17 October 2026 16:00 CEST

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ArlandaCounter-attacks & crosses

1–3

JärfällaCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Arlanda (61%)Best value by the model: 2 · Järfälla @ 7.80 (+43 %)

1 · Arlanda 61%X 21%18% Järfälla · 2

61%

21%

18%

Prediction summary

Final score 1–3. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Arlanda vs Järfälla (Swedish Ettan, Saturday, 17 October 2026): Arlanda win 61%, draw 21%, Järfälla win 18%. Expected goals (xG): Arlanda 2.23, Järfälla 1.13. Most likely score: 2-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 61%. Double chance: Arlanda or draw 82%, Järfälla or draw 39%. Prediction updated Friday, 9 October 2026.

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Analysis: Arlanda – Järfälla

Erik Lindberg · 16 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

With a solid 61% probability, Arlanda holds the upper hand in this match. Their consistent form is bolstered by a commanding points total of 48 compared to Järfälla's 19. The expected goals model further supports the hosts, predicting 2.23 goals for Arlanda against 1.13 for the visitors. These numbers suggest a tight, yet decisive victory for the home side, with the 2-1 scoreline being most probable.

Despite both teams sharing a counter-attacking style with a reliance on crosses, Arlanda's superior xGA of 1.4 compared to Järfälla's 1.8 underscores their defensive edge. While head-to-head data shows only one prior meeting — where Arlanda triumphed — that single match carries limited predictive weight. However, the home side's current form and expected goals advantage should see them through.

Given the 65% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams finding the net, the numbers lean towards a match with multiple goals. The model's lean toward Arlanda, supported by their points, xPoints, and expected goals edge, makes them the more reliable side to back in this encounter.

Arlanda

Form WWWWL

League ranking xG #18xGA #17xT #17xP/match #13Points #4

Key players

Mario ButrosCAMxG 0.11 · xT 0.25
Mark GorgosCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.05
Leonard KleistRBxG 0.08 · xT 0.17

Järfälla

Form WLLDL

League ranking xG #23xGA #29xT #28xP/match #29Points #30

Key players

Yosef AksoyCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.09
Anthony PortillaCDMxG 0.01 · xT 0.09
Ossian OgestadLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.09

Final score

1 – 3

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Arlanda 61% · Draw 21% · Järfälla 18%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - FC JärfällaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 19,72fair 16,74+18 %

Hit

Matchresultat - FC ArlandaBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 2,98fair 4,27-30 %

Miss

Match prediction: Arlanda – Järfälla

Predicted score matrix

Järfälla →

Arlanda →

0–03.7%

0–13.7%

0–22.2%

0–30.8%

0–4+0.3%

1–07.5%

1–19.0%

1–25.0%

1–31.9%

1–4+0.7%

2–08.6%

2–19.8%

2–25.5%

2–32.1%

2–4+0.8%

3–06.4%

3–17.2%

3–24.1%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.6%

4+–06.0%

4+–16.8%

4+–23.8%

4+–31.5%

4+–4+0.5%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-110%
2.1-19%
3.2-09%
4.1-07%
5.3-17%

Expected goals

2,23–1,13

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

418%

5+25%

Under 2,535%

@3.00EV+4%

Over 2,565%

@1.34

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Arlanda to win61%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Arlanda to win61%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Samuel Dawid Rydz to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals65%
Abdulmannan Khalil to score30%
Adrian Hamidi to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Järfälla18% probability@7.80BetsafeEV+43%reference odds
2 · Järfälla18% probability@7.80NordicbetEV+43%reference odds
2 · Järfälla18% probability@7.40LeoVegasEV+36%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Arlanda	X	2 · Järfälla
Betsafe	1.25	EV+ 15% 5.55	EV+ 43% 7.80
LeoVegas	1.26	EV+ 12% 5.40	EV+ 36% 7.40
Nordicbet	1.25	EV+ 15% 5.55	EV+ 43% 7.80

Odds updated 17 Oct, 15:38

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Arlanda win since 13 October — the odds have shortened from 1.55 to 1.25 (−19%).

1-19 %

75 %55 %

1.55 → 1.25

X+34 %

29 %9 %

4.15 → 5.55

2+73 %

26 %6 %

4.50 → 7.80

Betsafe · 18 recorded price levels · 13/10/2026 → 17/10/2026 · fixed scale 20 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Arlanda 1Draw 0Järfälla 0

Goals: 3–2 (⌀ 5)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Arlanda

Järfälla

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Arlanda (46–31)

Järfälla (34–57)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Arlanda

Järfälla

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Arlanda

Järfälla

The teams in numbers

Performance	Arlanda	Järfälla
Points	48	19
xPoints	36.9	29.3
xG per match	1.3	1.2
xGA per match	1.4	1.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.23	0.26
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.24	0.3

Playing style	Arlanda	Järfälla
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.33
Field tilt	0.41	0.39
xT per match	1.4	1.2
xTA per match	1.5	1.6
Won balls, offensive half	32	23
Pressing intensity	0.52	0.48
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.23
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.3	0.23
Entries into the box per match	11	11
Entries into the box against	15	16
Pass completion %	0.74	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.68	0.76
Passes per match	258	367
Passes against per match	337	375
Switches of play per match	18.1	16.2
Long balls per match	32	30

Set pieces	Arlanda	Järfälla
xG from free kicks	0.16	0.22
Corners per match	3.6	4.4
Corners against per match	4.9	5
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.34
First touch, defensive corners %	0.58	0.52

Other	Arlanda	Järfälla
Throw-in control	0.44	0.56

The goalkeepers	Adam Smedberg Lagh (Arlanda)	Erik von Feilitzen (Järfälla)
Saves	100	76
Save %	77%	64%
xG prevented	60%	35%
Claims	142 (94%)	97 (89%)

Teams & more matches this round

Arlanda

Fixtures, form & tips

Järfälla

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Arlanda vs Järfälla according to our model?

The model gives Arlanda a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Arlanda 61%, draw 21%, Järfälla 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Arlanda vs Järfälla?

The model expects 2.23 goals (xG) for Arlanda and 1.13 for Järfälla, 3.36 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Arlanda or draw (1X) 82%, Järfälla or draw (X2) 39% and no draw (12) 79%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.