01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Umeå FC or draw (X2)63%
- Over 1.5 goals84%
Swedish Ettan
Läs på svenska
JärfällaCounter-attacks & crossesvs
Umeå FCPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Umeå FC (44%)
Järfälla vs Umeå FC · Swedish Ettan
1 · Järfälla 31%X 25%44% Umeå FC · 2
31%
25%
44%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Järfälla – Umeå FC
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: With a 44% win probability, Umeå FC enters the clash with Järfälla as the model's preferred side. This match-up pits Järfälla's counter-attacking style against Umeå's possession-based approach. Although Järfälla claimed victory in their sole head-to-head meeting since 2023, that single encounter carries little weight against the broader backdrop of form and expected goals data. Umeå's superior xG per match of 1.6 compared to Järfälla's 1.2 highlights their attacking edge, while a marginally better defensive record also favors the visitors.
Projected scorelines show a tight battle, with 1-1 and 1-2 both sitting at 8-10% likelihoods. These forecasts reflect the balanced nature of the encounter, despite Umeå's overall statistical superiority. The expected goals tally — Järfälla at 1.61 and Umeå at 1.66 — further underscores a potentially close contest. Yet, with a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, the metrics suggest an open game where defenses could be breached multiple times.
In terms of betting, the standout value may lie with the over 2.5 goals market, given the offensive profiles and expected high goal count. Umeå FC's slight advantage nudges the expected outcome towards a 1-2 win for the visitors.
JärfällaForm LLWLL
League ranking xG #24xGA #29xT #28xP/match #29Points #30
Key players
- Adhavan RajamohanFxG 0.08 · xT 0.29
- Kahin DahirFxG 0.36 · xT 0.07
- Adam WürtzFxG 0.20 · xT 0.22
Umeå FCForm WLWWL
League ranking xG #4xGA #26xT #26xP/match #12Points #22
Key players
- Stefan LindmarkCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.30
- Emmanuel OlaworeRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.35
- Robin HadadFxG 0.66 · xT -0.02
Match prediction: Järfälla – Umeå FC
Predicted score matrix
Umeå FC →
Järfälla →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.1%
0–16.0%
0–25.2%
0–32.9%
0–4+1.7%
1
1–05.8%
1–110.5%
1–28.4%
1–34.7%
1–4+2.8%
2
2–04.9%
2–18.2%
2–26.8%
2–33.8%
2–4+2.3%
3
3–02.6%
3–14.4%
3–23.6%
3–32.0%
3–4+1.2%
4+
4+–01.5%
4+–12.5%
4+–22.1%
4+–31.2%
4+–4+0.7%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-110%
- 2.1-28%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.0-16%
Expected goals
1,61–1,66
Both teams to score
65%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,30
112%
221%
322%
418%
5+23%
Under 2,537%
–
Over 2,563%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Umeå FC or draw (X2)63%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Robin Hadad to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score65%
- Over 2.5 goals63%
- Abdulmannan Khalil to score32%
- Fredrick Udoh Godwin to be booked20%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesJärfälla 1Draw 0Umeå FC 0
Goals: 3–1 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Järfälla
Umeå FC
Järfälla (32–54)
Umeå FC (32–40)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Järfälla
Umeå FC
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Järfälla
Umeå FC
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Järfälla | Umeå FC |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 18 | 29 |
| xPoints | 27.7 | 34.6 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.31 | 0.26 |
| Playing style | Järfälla | Umeå FC |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 22 | 28 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.47 | 0.44 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.71 |
| Passes per match | 371 | 321 |
| Passes against per match | 385 | 359 |
| Switches of play per match | 15.9 | 17.2 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Järfälla | Umeå FC |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.21 | 0.15 |
| Corners per match | 4.2 | 5.8 |
| Corners against per match | 5.1 | 5.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.34 | 0.25 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.51 |
| Other | Järfälla | Umeå FC |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.56 | 0.55 |
| The goalkeepers | Erik von Feilitzen (Järfälla) | Pontus Eriksson (Umeå FC) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 69 | 54 |
| Save % | 64% | 67% |
| xG prevented | 38% | 45% |
| Claims | 83 (88%) | 71 (92%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Järfälla vs Umeå FC according to our model?
The model gives Umeå FC a 44% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Järfälla 31%, draw 25%, Umeå FC 44%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 63% and under at 37%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 65% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.