01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Gefle to win51%
- Over 1.5 goals80%
Swedish Ettan7°16 km/h
Läs på svenska
GeflePossession controlvs
PiteåLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Gefle (51%)
Gefle vs Piteå · Swedish Ettan
1 · Gefle 51%X 26%23% Piteå · 2
51%
26%
23%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Gefle – Piteå
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
TEXT: Gefle took the only meeting between these sides since the start of 2023. With just one game played, the head-to-head record offers limited insight, but it does align with the broader patterns shaping this clash. The home side has shown better form throughout the season, sitting nine points clear of Piteå in the standings. The model gives Gefle a 51% chance of winning, a nod to their consistent performances and superior squad depth.
The expected goals model reveals a clearer picture. Gefle's 1.86 expected goals per game suggest they should trouble the Piteå defence regularly, while the visitors' expected goals of 1.11 hint at a more sporadic threat. The contrasting styles—Gefle's possession-based approach against Piteå's defensive, direct play—suggest a tactical battle where the hosts should control much of the game. Gefle's ability to convert possession into meaningful chances could be key, especially given Piteå's vulnerability at the back with an average of 1.8 expected goals against per match.
Betting on this matchup leans toward a home victory, although it's not a foregone conclusion. The most likely outcomes are tightly contested: 1-1 at 11% and a narrow 2-1 win for Gefle at 10%. The model suggests a 57% likelihood of more than 2.5 goals and the same percentage for both teams to find the net. These figures reflect the potential for goals, particularly given Piteå's defensive frailties, despite Gefle's positional strength.
There's a sharp betting angle in the market. The over 2.5 goals market offers value given the model's 57% estimation. With both teams likely to score and Gefle's attacking edge, this market stands out as the opportunity to exploit.
GefleForm LWLWL
League ranking xG #28xGA #17xT #23xP/match #18Points #20
Key players
- Adem SipicFxG 0.29 · xT 0.08
- Måns BerggrenFxG 0.18 · xT 0.04
- Lukas VikgrenLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.29
PiteåForm WLLWW
League ranking xG #31xGA #30xT #30xP/match #31Points #28
Key players
- Bekir KavurLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.27
- Fredrik JohanssonCMxG 0.15 · xT 0.30
- Jonathan LundbäckFxG 0.23 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: Gefle – Piteå
Predicted score matrix
Piteå →
Gefle →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.4%
0–15.4%
0–23.1%
0–31.2%
0–4+0.4%
1
1–09.2%
1–110.9%
1–25.9%
1–32.2%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.9%
2–19.9%
2–25.5%
2–32.0%
2–4+0.7%
3
3–05.5%
3–16.1%
3–23.4%
3–31.3%
3–4+0.4%
4+
4+–03.9%
4+–14.3%
4+–22.4%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-110%
- 3.1-09%
- 4.2-09%
- 5.3-16%
Expected goals
1,86–1,11
Both teams to score
57%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,00
115%
223%
322%
417%
5+18%
Under 2,543%
–
Over 2,557%
–
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Gefle to win51%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Lukas Vikgren to score34%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score57%
- Over 2.5 goals57%
- Lukas Vikgren to score34%
- Mamadou Kouyate to be booked19%
Odds & value
No odds available yet.
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesGefle 1Draw 0Piteå 0
Goals: 2–0 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Gefle
Piteå
Gefle (29–42)
Piteå (29–45)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Gefle
Piteå
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Gefle
Piteå
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Gefle | Piteå |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 30 | 21 |
| xPoints | 32.5 | 23.6 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 0.98 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.8 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.23 | 0.34 |
| Playing style | Gefle | Piteå |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 11 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.74 |
| Passes per match | 332 | 335 |
| Passes against per match | 430 | 409 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.7 | 17.1 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 29 |
| Set pieces | Gefle | Piteå |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.15 | 0.11 |
| Corners per match | 4.2 | 3.6 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 5.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.44 | 0.28 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.55 |
| Other | Gefle | Piteå |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.59 | 0.6 |
| The goalkeepers | Max Croon (Gefle) | Filip Eriksson (Piteå) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 81 | 102 |
| Save % | 66% | 69% |
| xG prevented | 43% | 49% |
| Claims | 115 (96%) | 127 (91%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Gefle vs Piteå according to our model?
The model gives Gefle a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gefle 51%, draw 26%, Piteå 23%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.