01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Hammarby TFF to win51%
- Over 1.5 goals77%
Swedish Ettan6°11 km/h
Läs på svenska
Hammarby TFFPossession & high press2–1
Karlstad FotbollPossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Hammarby TFF (51%)
Hammarby TFF vs Karlstad Fotboll · Swedish Ettan
1 · Hammarby TFF 51%X 23%25% Karlstad Fotboll · 2
51%
23%
25%
Prediction summary
Final score 2–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Hammarby TFF vs Karlstad Fotboll (Swedish Ettan, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Hammarby TFF win 51%, draw 23%, Karlstad Fotboll win 25%. Expected goals (xG): Hammarby TFF 1.79, Karlstad Fotboll 1.01. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Hammarby TFF or draw 75%, Karlstad Fotboll or draw 49%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Hammarby TFF – Karlstad Fotboll
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Hammarby TFF's tactical setup of possession and high pressing could prove decisive in their clash against Karlstad Fotboll. Despite Karlstad's impressive unbeaten streak in the last five league matches, the model heavily favors the hosts, underscoring their slight advantage in this tightly contested matchup. The predicted probabilities give Hammarby a 51% chance of victory, a stark contrast to Karlstad's 25%, which suggests that home advantage might tip the scales in this encounter.
The statistical backdrop shows Hammarby with a marginal edge in xG per match (1.6) compared to Karlstad's 1.3, indicating their slightly more potent attack. However, defensively, there's little to separate the two, with Karlstad boasting a marginally lower xGA of 0.75 against Hammarby's 0.8. This defensive solidity on both sides contributes to the model's assessment of a modest scoring affair, where a 1-1 or 1-0 result appears equally plausible.
While the head-to-head record since 2023 has only seen one face-off, which ended in favor of Hammarby, this small sample size should not overshadow the meticulous analysis of form and expected goals. Both teams' playing styles, centered around possession, suggest a tactical battle rather than a free-scoring game, reinforcing the model's modest expectation of goals despite the 53% probability leaning towards over 2.5 goals.
The sharpest angle here lies in identifying value in the betting market. With Betsafe and Nordicbet both offering odds of 2.05 for a Hammarby win, there is an attractive edge. The model rates their win probability at 51%, translating to a notable 5% value, making this bet a potential opportunity for those seeking to capitalize on the home side's slight statistical edge.
Hammarby TFFForm DLWLL
League ranking xG #4xGA #3xT #1xP/match #8Points #7
Key players
- Jesper LindahlCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.20
- Casper EklundCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.16
- Oskar MoczarnyLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.24
Karlstad FotbollForm DDDDW
League ranking xG #17xGA #1xT #23xP/match #7Points #10
Key players
- Elliot Nilsson KingCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.09
- Johan BengtssonFxG 0.12 · xT 0.04
- Armin ĐerlekFxG 0.19 · xT 0.10
Final score
2 – 1
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Hammarby TFF 51% · Draw 23% · Karlstad Fotboll 25%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Hammarby TFFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 6,66fair 6,45+3 %
MissMatchresultat - IF Karlstad FotbollBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 10,42fair 20,14-48 %
MissMatch prediction: Hammarby TFF – Karlstad Fotboll
Predicted score matrix
Karlstad Fotboll →
Hammarby TFF →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.4%
0–15.8%
0–23.1%
0–31.0%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–010.5%
1–111.3%
1–25.5%
1–31.9%
1–4+0.6%
2
2–09.7%
2–19.8%
2–25.0%
2–31.7%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–05.8%
3–15.9%
3–23.0%
3–31.0%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–03.9%
4+–14.0%
4+–22.0%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.2-010%
- 5.0-06%
Expected goals
1,79–1,01
Both teams to score
53%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+15%
Under 2,547%
@1.88
Over 2,553%
@1.82
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Hammarby TFF to win51%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Gustav Andrén to score37%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score53%
- Over 2.5 goals53%
- Gustav Andrén to score37%
- Konrad Gustafsson to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Hammarby TFF51% probability@2.05BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Hammarby TFF51% probability@2.05LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
- 1 · Hammarby TFF51% probability@2.05NordicbetEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Hammarby TFF | X | 2 · Karlstad Fotboll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 5% 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.15 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 5% 2.05 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 5% 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.15 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 14:35
Odds movement
1+5 %
48 %43 %
1.95 → 2.05
X-4 %
29 %24 %
3.45 → 3.30
2-6 %
30 %25 %
3.35 → 3.15
Nordicbet · 6 recorded price levels · 13/10/2026 → 15/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesHammarby TFF 1Draw 0Karlstad Fotboll 0
Goals: 2–0 (⌀ 2)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Key facts
- IF Karlstad Fotboll are unbeaten in their last 5 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Hammarby TFF
Karlstad Fotboll
Hammarby TFF (51–26)
Karlstad Fotboll (40–25)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Hammarby TFF
Karlstad Fotboll
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Hammarby TFF
Karlstad Fotboll
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Hammarby TFF | Karlstad Fotboll |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45 | 44 |
| xPoints | 40.1 | 40.5 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 0.8 | 0.75 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.29 | 0.24 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.17 |
| Playing style | Hammarby TFF | Karlstad Fotboll |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.4 | 0.35 |
| Field tilt | 0.77 | 0.63 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 0.76 | 0.97 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 33 | 34 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.59 | 0.51 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.3 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 22 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 8 |
| Pass completion % | 0.85 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.82 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 481 | 391 |
| Passes against per match | 287 | 301 |
| Switches of play per match | 13.8 | 16.3 |
| Long balls per match | 26 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Hammarby TFF | Karlstad Fotboll |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.21 | 0.13 |
| Corners per match | 5.8 | 5.4 |
| Corners against per match | 3.5 | 3.6 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.38 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.64 | 0.62 |
| Other | Hammarby TFF | Karlstad Fotboll |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.56 |
| The goalkeepers | Elton Fischerström Opancar (Hammarby TFF) | Mathias Karlsson (Karlstad Fotboll) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 61 | 54 |
| Save % | 72% | 72% |
| xG prevented | 46% | 41% |
| Claims | 95 (92%) | 120 (88%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Lunds BK – Trelleborgs FF16 October 2026 19:00 CEST
- IFK Stocksund – Enköpings SK16 October 2026 19:30 CEST
- Ängelholm – Laholm17 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Tvååker – Rosengård17 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Arlanda – Järfälla17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- FBK Karlstad – Karlberg17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Jönköpings Södra – AFC Malmö17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Skövde AIK – Eskilsminne17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Åtvidaberg – Hässleholms IF17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Hammarby TFF vs Karlstad Fotboll according to our model?
The model gives Hammarby TFF a 51% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Hammarby TFF 51%, draw 23%, Karlstad Fotboll 25%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Hammarby TFF vs Karlstad Fotboll?
The model expects 1.79 goals (xG) for Hammarby TFF and 1.01 for Karlstad Fotboll, 2.80 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Hammarby TFF or draw (1X) 75%, Karlstad Fotboll or draw (X2) 49% and no draw (12) 77%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.