Karlstad Fotboll vs Assyriska FF: Prediction & Odds (15 Aug 2026)

Swedish Ettan15 August 2026 16:00 CEST21°20 km/h

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Karlstad FotbollBalanced & physical

0–2

Assyriska FFCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Karlstad Fotboll (60%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.58 (+20 %)

1 · Karlstad Fotboll 60%X 22%18% Assyriska FF · 2

60%

22%

18%

Analysis: Karlstad Fotboll – Assyriska FF

Marcus Johansson · 14 August 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The odds paint a compelling picture as IF Karlstad Fotboll enters this fixture with a 60% chance of victory, significantly outpacing Assyriska FF's modest 18% win probability. The numbers underscore an expected edge for Karlstad, driven by their higher expected goals tally of 2.00 against Assyriska's 0.81. The narrative here is one of contrasting fortunes: Karlstad, with a superior points tally (36 vs 20) and a better expected goals against (xGA) per match, appears poised to assert their dominance at home.

Assyriska FF, fresh off the momentum of three consecutive wins, might fancy their chances. Yet, the weight of their recent form seems to tip the balance only slightly. Their style—reliant on counter attacks and crosses—might struggle against a Karlstad side that is both balanced and physical. Despite a high-scoring nature in their recent encounters—averaging 3.0 goals per match—the head-to-head sample size remains small with just five games since 2023, suggesting it holds less sway compared to the more robust indicators of current form and expected goals.

One cannot ignore the betting value in this match. The under 2.5 goals market stands out with a significant edge, priced at 2.48 across Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. The model rates the under at 47%, providing a 16% value edge. While the probability of over 2.5 goals is slightly higher at 53%, the value hunters would be remiss not to consider the potential for a tighter, more controlled game.

Given these dynamics, a 2-0 victory for IF Karlstad Fotboll seems a plausible scoreline, aligning with the most likely outcomes. The model suggests a lean towards the under 2.5 goals market, presenting an attractive betting proposition for those looking to capitalize on the statistical value in this Ettan clash.

Karlstad Fotboll

Form WDLWW

League ranking xG #15xGA #1xT #28xP/match #1Points #3

Key players

Jesper CarströmFxG 0.19 · xT 0.13
Lukas RhöseLBxG 0.03 · xT 0.18
Oskar AlversLWBxG 0.31 · xT 0.23

Assyriska FF

Form LDWWW

League ranking xG #19xGA #22xT #23xP/match #16Points #19

Key players

Elias Ländin SjöblomLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.46
Martín Ignacio Larraín GuzmánFxG 0.06 · xT 0.19
Felix Felder AaltonenRWxG 0.33 · xT 0.26

Final score

0 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Karlstad Fotboll 60% · Draw 22% · Assyriska FF 18%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - IF Karlstad FotbollBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 3,64fair 5,89-38 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Assyriska FFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 12,80fair 35,35-64 %

Miss

Match prediction: Karlstad Fotboll – Assyriska FF

Predicted score matrix

Assyriska FF →

Karlstad Fotboll →

0–06.3%

0–14.6%

0–22.0%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.1%

1–011.7%

1–110.0%

1–24.0%

1–31.1%

1–4+0.3%

2–012.0%

2–19.8%

2–24.0%

2–31.1%

2–4+0.3%

3–08.0%

3–16.5%

3–22.6%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–06.4%

4+–15.2%

4+–22.1%

4+–30.6%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-012%
2.1-012%
3.1-110%
4.2-110%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,00–0,81

Both teams to score

48%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.58EV+20%

Over 2,553%

@1.46

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Karlstad Fotboll to win60%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Karlstad Fotboll to win60%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Adam Bark to score36%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score48%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Adam Bark to score36%
Elias Ländin Sjöblom to be booked17%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 2.547% probability@2.58BetsafeEV+20%reference odds
Under 2.547% probability@2.58BetssonEV+20%reference odds
Under 2.547% probability@2.58NordicbetEV+20%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Karlstad Fotboll	X	2 · Assyriska FF
Betsafe	1.50	4.25	4.90
Betsson	1.50	4.25	4.90
Nordicbet	1.50	4.25	4.90

Odds updated 15 Aug, 05:35

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Assyriska FF win since 10 August — the odds have shortened from 6.10 to 4.90 (−20%).

1+6 %

65 %60 %

1.41 → 1.50

X-7 %

24 %19 %

4.55 → 4.25

2-20 %

19 %14 %

6.10 → 4.90

Betsson · 10 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Karlstad Fotboll 1Draw 3Assyriska FF 1

Goals: 8–7 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

Key facts

A high-scoring fixture: 3.0 goals per meeting on average.
Assyriska FF come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Karlstad Fotboll

Assyriska FF

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Karlstad Fotboll (28–11)

Assyriska FF (27–29)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Karlstad Fotboll

Assyriska FF

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Karlstad Fotboll

Assyriska FF

The teams in numbers

Performance	Karlstad Fotboll	Assyriska FF
Points	36	20
xPoints	27.1	22.8
xG per match	1.4	1.3
xGA per match	0.61	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.26	0.31
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.13	0.24

Playing style	Karlstad Fotboll	Assyriska FF
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.38
Field tilt	0.61	0.38
xT per match	1.2	1.3
xTA per match	0.97	1.7
Won balls, offensive half	32	22
Pressing intensity	0.5	0.42
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.27	0.25
Entries into the box per match	11	13
Entries into the box against	7	15
Pass completion %	0.79	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.74	0.71
Passes per match	376	283
Passes against per match	308	392
Switches of play per match	17	17.1
Long balls per match	32	33

Set pieces	Karlstad Fotboll	Assyriska FF
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.12
Corners per match	5.2	4.4
Corners against per match	3.3	5.6
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.43
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.71

Other	Karlstad Fotboll	Assyriska FF
Throw-in control	0.55	0.5

The goalkeepers	Mathias Karlsson (Karlstad Fotboll)	Kingdom Osayi (Assyriska FF)
Saves	25	44
Save %	69%	67%
xG prevented	52%	40%
Claims	68 (87%)	81 (91%)

Teams & more matches this round

Karlstad Fotboll

Fixtures, form & tips

Assyriska FF

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Karlstad Fotboll vs Assyriska FF according to our model?

The model gives Karlstad Fotboll a 60% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Karlstad Fotboll 60%, draw 22%, Assyriska FF 18%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.