Swedish Ettan

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    KarlbergKarlbergBalanced & physical
    2–0
    IFK StocksundIFK StocksundBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 1 · Karlberg (57%)Best value by the model: Over 4,5 @ 2.95 (+21 %)

    Karlberg – IFK Stocksund · Swedish Ettan

    1 · Karlberg 57%X 21%22% IFK Stocksund · 2

    Analysis: Karlberg – IFK Stocksund

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    The numbers don't lie: Karlbergs BK enters this matchup with a strong statistical edge, evident in their 57% probability of victory over IFK Stocksund's 22%. Historically, Karlbergs BK have had the upper hand, winning four out of the five times these teams have faced each other since 2023. But with just five matches on record, this head-to-head sample is too small to overshadow the current form and metrics.

    Karlbergs BK leads in both expected points and goals, boasting 26.4 xPoints and an xG of 1.7 per match. IFK Stocksund lags behind with 16.3 xPoints and an xG of 1.6 per match. The expected goals against (xGA) further tips the scale towards Karlbergs BK, with a 1.3 to 2.0 advantage. These metrics point towards a likely home win, with a 2-1 or even 3-1 scoreline appearing most probable.

    IFK Stocksund, though balanced and physical like their opponents, has struggled defensively, allowing an average of 2.0 goals per match. This, combined with Karlbergs BK's ability to find the net, suggests a high-scoring affair. The model gives a 79% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 75% chance both teams find the back of the net.

    A standout betting opportunity in this matchup is the over 4.5 goals market. With odds of 2.85 offered by Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's a 17% edge as the model rates this outcome at 41%. While it’s a riskier bet, the potential payout justifies the gamble given the attacking profiles and defensive frailties on display. If you're looking for an angle that combines statistical backing and value, this is your play.

    KarlbergKarlberg
    Form LWWWL
    League ranking xG #5xGA #12xT #9xP/match #4Points #17
    Key players
    • Noah Tesfai NegashLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.29
    • Adam JemalFxG 0.50 · xT 0.20
    • Mattias MitkuFxG 0.31 · xT 0.15
    IFK StocksundIFK Stocksund
    Form DLLLW
    League ranking xG #9xGA #30xT #2xP/match #30Points #30
    Key players
    • Yosef RaufFxG 0.37 · xT 0.08
    • Alexander JohanssonCMxG 0.16 · xT 0.57
    • Langston Jasper WennerlindLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.28
    Final score
    2 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Karlberg 57% · Draw 21% · IFK Stocksund 22%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Karlbergs BKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,59fair 3,28+9 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - IFK StocksundBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,67fair 8,01-4 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Karlberg – IFK Stocksund

    Predicted score matrix

    IFK Stocksund →
    Karlberg →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–01.7%
    0–12.3%
    0–22.1%
    0–31.2%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–03.6%
    1–16.5%
    1–25.3%
    1–32.9%
    1–4+1.8%
    2
    2–04.8%
    2–18.0%
    2–26.7%
    2–33.7%
    2–4+2.2%
    3
    3–04.1%
    3–16.8%
    3–25.6%
    3–33.1%
    3–4+1.9%
    4+
    4+–04.7%
    4+–17.9%
    4+–26.5%
    4+–33.6%
    4+–4+2.2%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.2-18%
    2. 2.3-17%
    3. 3.2-27%
    4. 4.1-17%
    5. 5.3-26%
    Expected goals
    2,53–1,66
    Both teams to score
    75%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 4,2
    Under 2,521%
    @2.92
    Over 2,579%
    @1.36EV+7%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Karlberg to win57%
    • Over 1.5 goals92%

    Combined probability

    52%

    Fair odds

    1.92

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Karlberg to win57%
    • Over 2.5 goals79%
    • Adam Jemal to score35%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score75%
    • Over 2.5 goals79%
    • Adam Jemal to score35%
    • Dary Izia Boto to be booked17%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Over 4.541% probability@2.95BetsafeEV+21%reference odds
    • Over 4.541% probability@2.95BetssonEV+21%reference odds
    • Over 4.541% probability@2.95NordicbetEV+21%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · KarlbergX2 · IFK Stocksund
    Betsafe1.704.053.75
    Betsson1.704.053.75
    Nordicbet1.704.053.75

    Odds updated 15 Aug, 10:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards an IFK Stocksund win since 10 August — the odds have shortened from 4.45 to 3.75 (−16%).

    1+8 %
    60 %50 %

    1.58 → 1.70

    X-5 %
    27 %17 %

    4.25 → 4.05

    2-16 %
    28 %18 %

    4.45 → 3.75

    Betsson · 11 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 15/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    5 matches
    Karlberg 4Draw 1IFK Stocksund 0
    Goals: 9–3 (⌀ 2,4)

    Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Karlbergs BK dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 0 in 5 meetings.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Karlberg
    IFK Stocksund
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Karlberg (26–25)
    IFK Stocksund (33–38)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Karlberg
    Robin Sundgren: 214 passningar, xT 0.22SundgrenViktor Steen: 207 passningar, xT 0.18SteenNoah Tesfai Negash: 146 passningar, xT 1.16NegashFilip Nieminen Eriksson: 144 passningar, xT 0.37ErikssonHugo Åslund: 109 passningar, xT 0.03ÅslundLukas Sietsema: 108 passningar, xT 0.12SietsemaNino Geiger: 96 passningar, xT 0.04GeigerHugo Fernández: 86 passningar, xT 0.99FernándezMattias Mitku: 79 passningar, xT 0.08MitkuAbiel Sequar: 76 passningar, xT 0.21SequarNicholas Vainio: 67 passningar, xT -0.06Vainio
    IFK Stocksund
    Sebastian Lager: 255 passningar, xT 0.38LagerLuka Daniel Mihajlovic: 190 passningar, xT 0.31MihajlovicAxel Floric: 168 passningar, xT 0.96FloricAlexander Johansson: 167 passningar, xT 2.39JohanssonDary Izia Boto: 161 passningar, xT 0.19BotoClaus Emilio Royo: 147 passningar, xT 0.21RoyoMax Vogele: 115 passningar, xT 0.08VogeleLangston Jasper Wennerlind: 99 passningar, xT 0.73WennerlindBen Magnusson: 96 passningar, xT 0.08MagnussonEskil Bodvik: 94 passningar, xT 0.22BodvikJakob Rhawi: 85 passningar, xT -0.05Rhawi
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Karlberg
    Robin Sundgren: 214 passningar, xT 0.22SundgrenViktor Steen: 207 passningar, xT 0.18SteenNoah Tesfai Negash: 146 passningar, xT 1.16NegashFilip Nieminen Eriksson: 144 passningar, xT 0.37ErikssonHugo Åslund: 109 passningar, xT 0.03ÅslundLukas Sietsema: 108 passningar, xT 0.12SietsemaNino Geiger: 96 passningar, xT 0.04GeigerHugo Fernández: 86 passningar, xT 0.99FernándezMattias Mitku: 79 passningar, xT 0.08MitkuAbiel Sequar: 76 passningar, xT 0.21SequarNicholas Vainio: 67 passningar, xT -0.06Vainio
    IFK Stocksund
    Sebastian Lager: 255 passningar, xT 0.38LagerLuka Daniel Mihajlovic: 190 passningar, xT 0.31MihajlovicAxel Floric: 168 passningar, xT 0.96FloricAlexander Johansson: 167 passningar, xT 2.39JohanssonDary Izia Boto: 161 passningar, xT 0.19BotoClaus Emilio Royo: 147 passningar, xT 0.21RoyoMax Vogele: 115 passningar, xT 0.08VogeleLangston Jasper Wennerlind: 99 passningar, xT 0.73WennerlindBen Magnusson: 96 passningar, xT 0.08MagnussonEskil Bodvik: 94 passningar, xT 0.22BodvikJakob Rhawi: 85 passningar, xT -0.05Rhawi

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceKarlbergIFK Stocksund
    Points2111
    xPoints26.416.3
    xG per match1.71.6
    xGA per match1.32
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.270.35
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.390.31
    Playing styleKarlbergIFK Stocksund
    Build-up efficiency0.350.34
    Field tilt0.490.52
    xT per match1.51.6
    xTA per match1.41.4
    Won balls, offensive half3025
    Pressing intensity0.50.52
    Pressing efficiency0.250.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.250.25
    Entries into the box per match1313
    Entries into the box against1315
    Pass completion %0.810.81
    Pass completion % under pressure0.770.77
    Passes per match358377
    Passes against per match379337
    Switches of play per match12.613.4
    Long balls per match2628
    Set piecesKarlbergIFK Stocksund
    xG from free kicks0.230.27
    Corners per match4.63.7
    Corners against per match4.14.2
    xG per corner0.040.01
    xGA per corner against0.010.05
    First touch, offensive corners %0.450.49
    First touch, defensive corners %0.690.49
    OtherKarlbergIFK Stocksund
    Throw-in control0.60.55
    The goalkeepersArgyrios Gkoulios (Karlberg)Jakob Rhawi (IFK Stocksund)
    Saves3258
    Save %67%62%
    xG prevented44%37%
    Claims53 (95%)78 (86%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Karlberg
    Fixtures, form & tips
    IFK Stocksund
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Karlberg vs IFK Stocksund according to our model?

    The model gives Karlberg a 57% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Karlberg 57%, draw 21%, IFK Stocksund 22%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 2-1 at 8% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 79% and under at 21%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 75% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.