Swedish Ettan22°10 km/h

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    GefleGeflePossession control
    2–0
    Umeå FCUmeå FCPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Gefle (37%)Best value by the model: 2 · Umeå FC @ 2.90 (+4 %)

    Gefle – Umeå FC · Swedish Ettan

    1 · Gefle 37%X 27%36% Umeå FC · 2

    Analysis: Gefle – Umeå FC

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    Umeå FC have hit a rough patch, stumbling through four consecutive losses, leaving their confidence a bit battered. The tension of this matchup is palpable, with Gefle IF FF holding a slight edge according to the model probabilities, pegged at 37% compared to Umeå FC's 36%. This razor-thin margin, coupled with a draw probability of 27%, suggests a tightly contested affair. Yet, it's the small head-to-head sample of just one match that skews lightly in Gefle IF FF's favor with a draw, but historical form provides scant comfort in the face of Umeå's current struggles.

    Gefle IF FF might not be lighting up the league, but with 17 points against Umeå FC's 16, they’ve just managed to keep their noses ahead. Their possession control style mirrors that of Umeå FC, setting the stage for a tactical chess match rather than a barnburner. Despite their similar strategic inclinations, it’s the expected goals that hint at potential outcomes: Gefle IF FF are estimated at 1.61 compared to Umeå FC's 1.32. This subtle edge is echoed in the most likely scorelines, with a 1-1 deadlock leading at 12%, but a 2-1 win for Gefle IF FF not far behind at 9%.

    While the model leans towards Gefle IF FF, suggesting a possible 2-1 home victory, the over 2.5 goals probability at 56% indicates this might not be the low-scoring affair underpinned by the teams' possession-heavy approaches. Yet, it's the defensive vulnerabilities that might open up the game: Gefle IF FF concede an xGA of 1.5 per match, slightly edging Umeå’s 1.8.

    For bettors, the sharp angle lies in the under 2.5 goals market, where there's a 5% value edge at odds of 2.38 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Although the model rates it at 44%, the potential for a tightly fought, low-scoring match in a game dominated by possession control strategies makes this an enticing proposition.

    GefleGefle
    Form LLWWL
    League ranking xG #24xGA #19xT #21xP/match #18Points #24
    Key players
    • Deniz YaldirLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.32
    • Lukas VikgrenLWxG 0.21 · xT 0.34
    • Mirza HasanbegovicFxG 0.30 · xT -0.02
    Umeå FCUmeå FC
    Form WLLLL
    League ranking xG #3xGA #28xT #25xP/match #17Points #25
    Key players
    • Robin HadadFxG 0.76 · xT -0.03
    • Stefan LindmarkCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.32
    • Emmanuel OlaworeRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.34
    Final score
    2 – 0
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Gefle 37% · Draw 27% · Umeå FC 36%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Gefle IFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,47fair 7,33-25 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Umeå FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 7,59fair 10,87-30 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Gefle – Umeå FC

    Predicted score matrix

    Umeå FC →
    Gefle →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.7%
    0–16.7%
    0–24.7%
    0–32.0%
    0–4+0.9%
    1
    1–08.3%
    1–111.7%
    1–27.5%
    1–33.3%
    1–4+1.5%
    2
    2–06.9%
    2–19.1%
    2–26.0%
    2–32.7%
    2–4+1.2%
    3
    3–03.7%
    3–14.9%
    3–23.2%
    3–31.4%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–02.1%
    4+–12.8%
    4+–21.9%
    4+–30.8%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-08%
    4. 4.1-27%
    5. 5.2-07%
    Expected goals
    1,61–1,32
    Both teams to score
    59%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,9
    Under 2,544%
    @2.22
    Over 2,556%
    @1.58

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Gefle or draw (1X)69%
    • Over 1.5 goals79%

    Combined probability

    55%

    Fair odds

    1.82

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Gefle or draw (1X)69%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Adem Sipic to score24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score59%
    • Over 2.5 goals56%
    • Robin Hadad to score25%
    • Mamadou Kouyate to be booked21%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Umeå FC36% probability@2.90BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
    • 2 · Umeå FC36% probability@2.90BetssonEV+4%reference odds
    • 2 · Umeå FC36% probability@2.90NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · GefleX2 · Umeå FC
    Betsafe2.123.45
    EV+ 4%
    2.90
    Betsson2.123.45
    EV+ 4%
    2.90
    Nordicbet2.123.45
    EV+ 4%
    2.90

    Odds updated 14 Aug, 14:36

    Odds movement

    1-1 %
    45 %40 %

    2.15 → 2.12

    X-5 %
    28 %23 %

    3.65 → 3.45

    2+3 %
    35 %30 %

    2.82 → 2.90

    Betsson · 7 recorded price levels · 10/08/2026 → 14/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    1 matches
    Gefle 0Draw 1Umeå FC 0
    Goals: 2–2 (⌀ 4)

    Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Umeå FC have lost 4 in a row.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Gefle
    Umeå FC
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Gefle (19–34)
    Umeå FC (21–28)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Gefle
    Dillan Ismail: 152 passningar, xT -0.05IsmailDeniz Yaldir: 146 passningar, xT 1.1YaldirEric Larsson: 130 passningar, xT 0.62LarssonMamadou Kouyate: 127 passningar, xT 0.05KouyateKevin Persson: 104 passningar, xT 0.29PerssonTheodor Hansemon: 103 passningar, xT 0.22HansemonSemin Zulum: 94 passningar, xT 0.15ZulumMax Croon: 91 passningar, xT 0.32CroonRasmus Nehrman: 88 passningar, xT 0.23NehrmanLukas Vikgren: 83 passningar, xT 0.89VikgrenAlem Nezirevic: 73 passningar, xT 0.21Nezirevic
    Umeå FC
    David Ekman: 292 passningar, xT 0.22EkmanStefan Lindmark: 268 passningar, xT 1.56LindmarkJerry Essombe Mambingo: 246 passningar, xT 0.77MambingoDjoseph Bangala: 198 passningar, xT 0.28BangalaFredrick Udoh Godwin: 152 passningar, xT -0.05GodwinNeo Lindén: 133 passningar, xT 0.61LindénEmmanuel Olawore: 121 passningar, xT 2.33OlaworeSteve Zishim Bawa: 88 passningar, xT 0.95BawaHassan Abdi Hassan: 60 passningar, xT 0.69HassanRasmus Andersson: 59 passningar, xT 0.07AnderssonLukas Pihlblad: 56 passningar, xT 0.04Pihlblad
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Gefle
    Dillan Ismail: 152 passningar, xT -0.05IsmailDeniz Yaldir: 146 passningar, xT 1.1YaldirEric Larsson: 130 passningar, xT 0.62LarssonMamadou Kouyate: 127 passningar, xT 0.05KouyateKevin Persson: 104 passningar, xT 0.29PerssonTheodor Hansemon: 103 passningar, xT 0.22HansemonSemin Zulum: 94 passningar, xT 0.15ZulumMax Croon: 91 passningar, xT 0.32CroonRasmus Nehrman: 88 passningar, xT 0.23NehrmanLukas Vikgren: 83 passningar, xT 0.89VikgrenAlem Nezirevic: 73 passningar, xT 0.21Nezirevic
    Umeå FC
    David Ekman: 292 passningar, xT 0.22EkmanStefan Lindmark: 268 passningar, xT 1.56LindmarkJerry Essombe Mambingo: 246 passningar, xT 0.77MambingoDjoseph Bangala: 198 passningar, xT 0.28BangalaFredrick Udoh Godwin: 152 passningar, xT -0.05GodwinNeo Lindén: 133 passningar, xT 0.61LindénEmmanuel Olawore: 121 passningar, xT 2.33OlaworeSteve Zishim Bawa: 88 passningar, xT 0.95BawaHassan Abdi Hassan: 60 passningar, xT 0.69HassanRasmus Andersson: 59 passningar, xT 0.07AnderssonLukas Pihlblad: 56 passningar, xT 0.04Pihlblad

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceGefleUmeå FC
    Points1716
    xPoints21.922.4
    xG per match1.21.8
    xGA per match1.51.8
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.220.38
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.270.29
    Playing styleGefleUmeå FC
    Build-up efficiency0.350.33
    Field tilt0.40.39
    xT per match1.41.3
    xTA per match1.41.6
    Won balls, offensive half3027
    Pressing intensity0.490.41
    Pressing efficiency0.230.28
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.3
    Entries into the box per match1013
    Entries into the box against1416
    Pass completion %0.790.77
    Pass completion % under pressure0.740.71
    Passes per match329315
    Passes against per match439351
    Switches of play per match16.117
    Long balls per match2831
    Set piecesGefleUmeå FC
    xG from free kicks0.140.14
    Corners per match3.96.2
    Corners against per match5.16.2
    xG per corner0.040.06
    xGA per corner against0.040.03
    First touch, offensive corners %0.480.27
    First touch, defensive corners %0.560.57
    OtherGefleUmeå FC
    Throw-in control0.570.53
    The goalkeepersMax Croon (Gefle)Pontus Eriksson (Umeå FC)
    Saves5036
    Save %60%71%
    xG prevented35%54%
    Claims58 (97%)39 (93%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Gefle
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Umeå FC
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Gefle vs Umeå FC according to our model?

    The model gives Gefle a 37% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gefle 37%, draw 27%, Umeå FC 36%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.