Karlberg vs Umeå FC Prediction: Home win 41% (25 Oct 2026)

Swedish Ettan25 October 2026 15:00 CET

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KarlbergBalanced & physical

Umeå FCPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Karlberg (41%)Soft drawBest value by the model: Over 3,5 @ 2.35 (+4 %)

1 · Karlberg 41%X 23%36% Umeå FC · 2

41%

23%

36%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Karlberg vs Umeå FC (Swedish Ettan, Sunday, 25 October 2026): Karlberg win 41%, draw 23%, Umeå FC win 36%. Expected goals (xG): Karlberg 1.84, Umeå FC 1.56. Most likely score: 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 67%. Double chance: Karlberg or draw 64%, Umeå FC or draw 59%. Prediction updated Saturday, 17 October 2026.

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Analysis: Karlberg – Umeå FC

Anna Karlsson · 24 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

The recent head-to-head record between Karlberg and Umeå FC is intriguing, albeit limited, with just three matches since 2023. Umeå FC has had the upper hand, claiming two wins and a draw. However, with such a small sample size, this record should be weighed less than current form and expected goals. Karlberg enters this clash with a solid home advantage and a physical style that could disrupt Umeå's possession-oriented game, especially given Karlberg's slight edge in defensive metrics.

Umeå FC, meanwhile, is riding a wave of momentum with three consecutive wins, boosting their confidence even as they travel to face the hosts. Their superior points tally and expected points reflect a team in good form. Yet, the model sees value in Karlberg's chances at home, assigning them a 41% likelihood of victory compared to Umeå's 36%. The expected goals also suggest a close contest, with Karlberg's 1.84 slightly outpacing the visitors' 1.56.

Goals are likely to flow in this fixture. The probability of over 2.5 goals stands at 66%, and both teams are expected to score. These figures, coupled with Karlberg's balanced approach and Umeå's offensive edge, hint at an open game. A 1-1 or 2-1 scoreline seems plausible, with the model's most likely outcome being a 1-1 draw, narrowly ahead of a 2-1 win for the hosts.

For bettors, the standout opportunity lies in the goal markets. Betsafe and Nordicbet both offer value on over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.35, with the model suggesting a 44% probability—translating to a 4% edge. This aligns well with the expectation of a high-scoring affair, making it a compelling option for those looking to capitalize on the evening's action.

Karlberg

Form LDWDL

League ranking xG #16xGA #19xT #20xP/match #17Points #22

Key players

Nino GeigerCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.06
Noah Tesfai NegashLWxG 0.18 · xT 0.24
Ayo Rupia-EllisRBxG 0.14 · xT 0.12

Umeå FC

Form WLWWW

League ranking xG #6xGA #23xT #26xP/match #9Points #15

Key players

Rasmus AnderssonCBxG 0.10 · xT 0.09
Stefan LindmarkCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.30
Fredrick Udoh GodwinCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Karlberg – Umeå FC

Predicted score matrix

Umeå FC →

Karlberg →

0–03.6%

0–14.9%

0–24.0%

0–32.1%

0–4+1.2%

1–05.9%

1–19.9%

1–27.5%

1–33.9%

1–4+2.1%

2–05.7%

2–18.8%

2–26.9%

2–33.6%

2–4+2.0%

3–03.5%

3–15.4%

3–24.2%

3–32.2%

3–4+1.2%

4+–02.4%

4+–13.8%

4+–23.0%

4+–31.5%

4+–4+0.8%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.2-19%
3.1-27%
4.2-27%
5.1-06%

Expected goals

1,84–1,56

Both teams to score

67%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

419%

5+26%

Under 2,534%

@2.25

Over 2,566%

@1.55EV+2%

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Karlberg or draw (1X)68%
Over 1.5 goals86%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Karlberg or draw (1X)68%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Adam Jemal to score39%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score67%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Adam Jemal to score39%
Fredrick Udoh Godwin to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Over 3.544% probability@2.35BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
Over 3.544% probability@2.35NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
Over 2.566% probability@1.55BetsafeEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Karlberg	X	2 · Umeå FC
Betsafe	2.28	3.40	2.72
LeoVegas	2.25	3.35	2.65
Nordicbet	2.28	3.40	2.72

Odds updated 25 Oct, 00:36

Odds movement

10 %

41 %36 %

2.28 → 2.28

X-4 %

29 %24 %

3.55 → 3.40

2+4 %

37 %32 %

2.62 → 2.72

Nordicbet · 6 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 23/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

3 matches

Karlberg 0Draw 1Umeå FC 2

Goals: 4–7 (⌀ 3,7)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

Key facts

Umeå FC come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Karlberg

Umeå FC

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Karlberg (37–47)

Umeå FC (39–43)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Karlberg

Umeå FC

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Karlberg

Umeå FC

The teams in numbers

Performance	Karlberg	Umeå FC
Points	33	38
xPoints	37	40.2
xG per match	1.4	1.6
xGA per match	1.4	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.28
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.34	0.24

Playing style	Karlberg	Umeå FC
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.33
Field tilt	0.48	0.4
xT per match	1.4	1.3
xTA per match	1.5	1.5
Won balls, offensive half	27	27
Pressing intensity	0.54	0.45
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.28
Entries into the box per match	13	13
Entries into the box against	14	16
Pass completion %	0.82	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.71
Passes per match	379	311
Passes against per match	376	364
Switches of play per match	13.1	17.2
Long balls per match	28	31

Set pieces	Karlberg	Umeå FC
xG from free kicks	0.18	0.16
Corners per match	4.5	5.6
Corners against per match	4.8	5.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.06
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.26
First touch, defensive corners %	0.63	0.5

Other	Karlberg	Umeå FC
Throw-in control	0.61	0.56

The goalkeepers	Argyrios Gkoulios (Karlberg)	Pontus Eriksson (Umeå FC)
Saves	62	67
Save %	70%	69%
xG prevented	50%	48%
Claims	77 (90%)	81 (93%)

Teams & more matches this round

Karlberg

Fixtures, form & tips

Umeå FC

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Karlberg vs Umeå FC according to our model?

The model gives Karlberg a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Karlberg 41%, draw 23%, Umeå FC 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 67% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Karlberg vs Umeå FC?

The model expects 1.84 goals (xG) for Karlberg and 1.56 for Umeå FC, 3.40 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Karlberg or draw (1X) 64%, Umeå FC or draw (X2) 59% and no draw (12) 77%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.