01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Laholm or draw (1X)69%
- Over 1.5 goals82%
Swedish Ettan8°16 km/h
Läs på svenska
LaholmPossession control1–1
TvååkerCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Laholm (41%)Best value by the model: 2 · Tvååker @ 3.10 (+0 %)
Laholm vs Tvååker · Swedish Ettan
1 · Laholm 41%X 26%32% Tvååker · 2
41%
26%
32%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Laholm vs Tvååker (Swedish Ettan, Monday, 12 October 2026): Laholm win 41%, draw 26%, Tvååker win 32%. Expected goals (xG): Laholm 1.71, Tvååker 1.40. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Laholm or draw 68%, Tvååker or draw 59%. Prediction updated Monday, 5 October 2026.
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Analysis: Laholm – Tvååker
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
Tvååker has been on a troubling slide, losing four matches consecutively, which makes their upcoming clash with Laholm intriguing. Despite their slump, the visitors hold a slight advantage in points this season with 33 compared to Laholm's 25. However, expected points tell a different story, with Tvååker barely edging out Laholm, 32.3 to 32.2. This minor difference suggests that the hosts have been unlucky and perhaps undervalued in their performances.
Laholm's possession-based style contrasts sharply with Tvååker's reliance on counter-attacks and crosses. The single head-to-head match between these sides since 2023 ended in Laholm's favor, but with such a small sample, it weighs less than form and expected goals. Notably, Laholm has a slight edge defensively, with an xGA of 1.4 compared to Tvååker's 1.6, which may prove crucial in a tight contest. The most likely scorelines reflect a narrow game, with 1-1 being the top prediction at 11%.
Despite Laholm being the model's lean, savvy bettors might find value in the away win at odds of 3.4 with Betsafe or Nordicbet, as the implied probability presents a 10% edge. This clash could be a rare opportunity where backing the struggling visitors pays off.
LaholmForm WDLLW
League ranking xG #25xGA #18xT #26xP/match #21Points #27
Key players
- Gentrit IbishiCBxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
- Nils HedströmLBxG 0.11 · xT 0.36
- Olle JohanssonCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.09
TvååkerForm DLLLL
League ranking xG #24xGA #27xT #13xP/match #20Points #15
Key players
- Melvin SjölandRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.28
- Felix GustafssonRBxG 0.01 · xT 0.22
- Isak WimanCMxG 0.09 · xT 0.02
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Laholm 41% · Draw 26% · Tvååker 32%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Tvååkers IFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,67fair 9,64-20 %
MissMatchresultat - Laholms FKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 5,06fair 6,49-22 %
MissMatch prediction: Laholm – Tvååker
Predicted score matrix
Tvååker →
Laholm →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.8%
0–16.0%
0–24.4%
0–32.0%
0–4+1.0%
1
1–07.3%
1–111.0%
1–27.5%
1–33.5%
1–4+1.7%
2
2–06.5%
2–19.1%
2–26.4%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.4%
3
3–03.7%
3–15.2%
3–23.6%
3–31.7%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–02.3%
4+–13.3%
4+–22.3%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-27%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.2-07%
Expected goals
1,71–1,40
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
113%
222%
322%
417%
5+20%
Under 2,540%
@2.32
Over 2,560%
@1.55
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Laholm or draw (1X)69%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Måns Andersson to score33%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals60%
- Måns Andersson to score33%
- Olle Johansson to be booked18%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Tvååker32% probability@3.10BetsafeEV+0%reference odds
- 2 · Tvååker32% probability@3.10NordicbetEV+0%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Laholm | X | 2 · Tvååker |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.02 | 3.45 | EV+ 0% 3.10 |
| LeoVegas | 2.02 | 3.45 | 3.05 |
| Nordicbet | 2.02 | 3.45 | EV+ 0% 3.10 |
Odds updated 12 Oct, 18:35
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards an Tvååker win since 6 October — the odds have shortened from 3.60 to 3.10 (−14%).
1+13 %
53 %43 %
1.78 → 2.02
X-8 %
30 %20 %
3.75 → 3.45
2-14 %
33 %23 %
3.60 → 3.10
Over 2,5+3 %
65 %55 %
1.50 → 1.55
Nordicbet · 12 recorded price levels · 06/10/2026 → 12/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesLaholm 1Draw 0Tvååker 0
Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 3)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Key facts
- Tvååkers IF have lost 4 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Laholm
Tvååker
Laholm (32–43)
Tvååker (33–39)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Laholm
Tvååker
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Laholm
Tvååker
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Laholm | Tvååker |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 25 | 33 |
| xPoints | 32.2 | 32.3 |
| xG per match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| xGA per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.4 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | Laholm | Tvååker |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.34 |
| Field tilt | 0.43 | 0.4 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 26 | 23 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.47 | 0.52 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 16 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.73 |
| Passes per match | 353 | 343 |
| Passes against per match | 384 | 395 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.2 | 18.6 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 31 |
| Set pieces | Laholm | Tvååker |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| Corners per match | 4.2 | 3.7 |
| Corners against per match | 4.8 | 6.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.36 | 0.47 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.52 | 0.62 |
| Other | Laholm | Tvååker |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.54 | 0.57 |
| The goalkeepers | Max Johnsson (Laholm) | Alexander Capocci Nielsen (Tvååker) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 67 | 104 |
| Save % | 61% | 73% |
| xG prevented | 38% | 63% |
| Claims | 183 (93%) | 105 (89%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Sollentuna – IFK Stocksund9 October 2026 19:00 CEST
- Trelleborgs FF – Kristianstad FC10 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Hässleholms IF – Jönköpings Södra10 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Eskilsminne – Olympic10 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Karlberg – Vasalund10 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- AFC Eskilstuna – Stockholm Internazionale10 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- AFC Malmö – Skövde AIK10 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Rosengård – Åtvidaberg10 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Lunds BK – FC Trollhättan10 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Laholm vs Tvååker according to our model?
The model gives Laholm a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Laholm 41%, draw 26%, Tvååker 32%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Laholm vs Tvååker?
The model expects 1.71 goals (xG) for Laholm and 1.40 for Tvååker, 3.11 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Laholm or draw (1X) 68%, Tvååker or draw (X2) 59% and no draw (12) 74%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.