01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Sollentuna or draw (X2)59%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Swedish Ettan3°12 km/h
Läs på svenska
PiteåLow block & direct1–1
SollentunaPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Sollentuna (41%)
Piteå vs Sollentuna · Swedish Ettan
1 · Piteå 34%X 25%41% Sollentuna · 2
34%
25%
41%
Prediction summary
Final score 1–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Piteå vs Sollentuna (Swedish Ettan, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Piteå win 34%, draw 25%, Sollentuna win 41%. Expected goals (xG): Piteå 1.60, Sollentuna 1.45. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. Double chance: Piteå or draw 59%, Sollentuna or draw 66%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Piteå – Sollentuna
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Sollentuna FK enters this clash with Piteå as slight favorites, backed by model probabilities and a consistent edge in expected points and goals. The tension pivots on Sollentuna's ability to harness their possession-based style against a Piteå side that relies on direct play and a low defensive block. This stylistic clash could decide the outcome in a match where Sollentuna holds a 41% chance of victory compared to Piteå's 34%.
Despite the small head-to-head sample between these teams—just five encounters since 2023—the historical data shows an evenly balanced record with two wins each and one draw. However, form and expected goals favor the visitors, who boast superior xPoints (33.2) and a tighter defense, conceding just 1.2 xGA per match compared to Piteå's leaky 1.8. The visitors' tactical approach may well exploit these defensive vulnerabilities.
In terms of potential scorelines, the model suggests a 1-1 draw is most probable, but a narrow 2-1 win for either side is also on the cards. The expected goals indicate a closely contested battle, with Piteå slightly ahead at 1.60 compared to Sollentuna's 1.45. Yet, Sollentuna's marginally better xG per match and defense could prove pivotal in converting opportunities into goals.
Bettors might find value leaning towards Sollentuna, especially given their 4% edge at odds of 2.55 available with both Betsafe and Nordicbet. Meanwhile, the historical goal-scoring average of 3.4 per game and an over 2.5 goals likelihood of 59% suggest the potential for a lively encounter. Betsafe's offering of 1.75 for over 2.5 goals presents a tempting prospect.
Ultimately, the betting angles point towards a tight affair with Sollentuna edging it out, perhaps 2-1, and a strong lean towards over 2.5 goals. The away victory at 2.55 odds stands as the sharpest angle, capturing both form and value in this intriguing matchup.
PiteåForm LWWDD
League ranking xG #31xGA #30xT #30xP/match #31Points #29
Key players
- Henrik MillbertCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.18
- Fredrik JohanssonCMxG 0.14 · xT 0.30
- Bekir KavurLWxG 0.02 · xT 0.27
SollentunaForm LDLLW
League ranking xG #28xGA #11xT #24xP/match #23Points #25
Key players
- Oskar KäckRBxG 0.15 · xT 0.12
- Jonathan ZebergaCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
- Ludvig EnnartCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.27
Final score
1 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Piteå 34% · Draw 25% · Sollentuna 41%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Piteå IFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,17fair 7,29-2 %
MissMatchresultat - Sollentuna FFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,56fair 8,87-15 %
MissMatch prediction: Piteå – Sollentuna
Predicted score matrix
Sollentuna →
Piteå →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.0%
0–16.5%
0–25.0%
0–32.4%
0–4+1.2%
1
1–07.2%
1–111.3%
1–28.0%
1–33.9%
1–4+1.9%
2
2–06.0%
2–18.8%
2–26.4%
2–33.1%
2–4+1.6%
3
3–03.2%
3–14.7%
3–23.4%
3–31.7%
3–4+0.8%
4+
4+–01.9%
4+–12.7%
4+–22.0%
4+–30.9%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.1-07%
- 5.0-17%
Expected goals
1,60–1,45
Both teams to score
62%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
@2.02
Over 2,559%
@1.70EV+0%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Sollentuna or draw (X2)59%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Filip Rosenquist to score19%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score62%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Siavash Jamehdar to score31%
- Erik Lundell to be booked19%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Sollentuna41% probability@2.55BetsafeEV+4%reference odds
- 2 · Sollentuna41% probability@2.55LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds
- 2 · Sollentuna41% probability@2.55NordicbetEV+4%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Piteå | X | 2 · Sollentuna |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.45 | 3.30 | EV+ 4% 2.55 |
| LeoVegas | 2.40 | 3.25 | EV+ 4% 2.55 |
| Nordicbet | 2.45 | 3.30 | EV+ 4% 2.55 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 12:36
Odds movement
1-6 %
39 %34 %
2.62 → 2.45
X0 %
30 %25 %
3.30 → 3.30
2+5 %
39 %34 %
2.42 → 2.55
Over 2,5-6 %
55 %50 %
1.80 → 1.70
Nordicbet · 6 recorded price levels · 13/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesPiteå 2Draw 1Sollentuna 2
Goals: 8–9 (⌀ 3,4)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Key facts
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.4 goals per meeting on average.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Piteå
Sollentuna
Piteå (33–49)
Sollentuna (27–36)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Piteå
Sollentuna
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Piteå
Sollentuna
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Piteå | Sollentuna |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 23 | 27 |
| xPoints | 26.1 | 33.2 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.22 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.36 | 0.22 |
| Playing style | Piteå | Sollentuna |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.34 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.37 | 0.48 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 23 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.5 | 0.47 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.24 | 0.23 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 12 |
| Pass completion % | 0.79 | 0.83 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 337 | 387 |
| Passes against per match | 406 | 400 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.4 | 13 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Piteå | Sollentuna |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 3.7 | 4.3 |
| Corners against per match | 5.8 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.33 | 0.46 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.56 | 0.63 |
| Other | Piteå | Sollentuna |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.6 | 0.59 |
| The goalkeepers | Filip Eriksson (Piteå) | Oscar Franck (Sollentuna) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 110 | 52 |
| Save % | 69% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 50% | 44% |
| Claims | 139 (91%) | 81 (92%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Lunds BK – Trelleborgs FF16 October 2026 19:00 CEST
- IFK Stocksund – Enköpings SK16 October 2026 19:30 CEST
- Ängelholm – Laholm17 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Tvååker – Rosengård17 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Arlanda – Järfälla17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- FBK Karlstad – Karlberg17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Jönköpings Södra – AFC Malmö17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Skövde AIK – Eskilsminne17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Åtvidaberg – Hässleholms IF17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Piteå vs Sollentuna according to our model?
The model gives Sollentuna a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Piteå 34%, draw 25%, Sollentuna 41%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Piteå vs Sollentuna?
The model expects 1.60 goals (xG) for Piteå and 1.45 for Sollentuna, 3.06 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Piteå or draw (1X) 59%, Sollentuna or draw (X2) 66% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.