Sollentuna vs Vasalund: Prediction & Odds (24 Oct 2026)

Swedish Ettan24 October 2026 16:00 CEST10°24 km/h

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SollentunaPossession control

2–0

VasalundPossession control

The model's lean: 1 · Sollentuna (42%)

1 · Sollentuna 42%X 23%35% Vasalund · 2

42%

23%

35%

Prediction summary

Final score 2–0. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Sollentuna vs Vasalund (Swedish Ettan, Saturday, 24 October 2026): Sollentuna win 42%, draw 23%, Vasalund win 35%. Expected goals (xG): Sollentuna 1.52, Vasalund 1.43. Most likely score: 1-1 (12%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. Double chance: Sollentuna or draw 65%, Vasalund or draw 58%. Prediction updated Friday, 16 October 2026.

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Analysis: Sollentuna – Vasalund

Oscar Nilsson · 23 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

TEXT: Sollentuna and Vasalund square off with a rich, albeit brief, history between them: Vasalund has dominated this fixture, securing four wins out of seven meetings since 2023. Despite this past advantage, the balance might be tipping towards the hosts this time. The model gives a slight edge to Sollentuna with a 42% win probability compared to Vasalund's 35%. Sollentuna's control-oriented style could play a pivotal role in disrupting Vasalund's usual dominance.

Sollentuna has the upper hand when it comes to expected points and defensive resilience, with an xGA of 1.2 compared to Vasalund's more leaky 1.6. This defensive edge might prove crucial, especially in a matchup where both teams tend to control possession. Moreover, Sollentuna has been more effective in generating xG within quick transitions, which adds another dimension to their tactical setup.

The expected goals for this encounter are close, with Sollentuna at 1.52 and Vasalund at 1.43. A high-scoring game sits within the realm of possibility, as these two sides have averaged 3.4 goals per clash historically. However, the betting value lies in the under markets, which might catch some by surprise. Despite the 57% probability for over 2.5 goals, the model's pricing suggests value in the under 2.5 market, with odds of 2.35 from Betsafe and Nordicbet offering a slight edge.

Given the numbers, a 1-1 draw appears to be the most likely outcome, but don't discount a narrow 2-1 win for Sollentuna if they capitalize on their defensive strengths. While the over 2.5 goals market seems tempting, the true value lies in the under 2.5 line at 2.35 odds, a hidden gem for those eyeing a tighter affair.

Sollentuna

Form DLLWD

League ranking xG #28xGA #12xT #25xP/match #23Points #26

Key players

Oskar KäckRBxG 0.14 · xT 0.11
Jonathan ZebergaCMxG 0.05 · xT 0.11
Ludvig EnnartCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.28

Vasalund

Form LWLDL

League ranking xG #24xGA #25xT #21xP/match #28Points #27

Key players

Marko NikolicFxG 0.17 · xT 0.19
Esaias TorppaCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
Prince AmosRWxG 0.23 · xT 0.11

Final score

2 – 0

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Sollentuna 42% · Draw 23% · Vasalund 35%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - Sollentuna FFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,76fair 8,11-29 %

Miss

Matchresultat - Vasalunds IFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 6,44fair 9,15-30 %

Miss

Match prediction: Sollentuna – Vasalund

Predicted score matrix

Vasalund →

Sollentuna →

0–05.6%

0–17.1%

0–25.4%

0–32.6%

0–4+1.3%

1–07.6%

1–111.7%

1–28.1%

1–33.9%

1–4+1.9%

2–06.0%

2–18.6%

2–26.2%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.4%

3–03.1%

3–14.4%

3–23.1%

3–31.5%

3–4+0.7%

4+–01.6%

4+–12.3%

4+–21.7%

4+–30.8%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-08%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,52–1,43

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

115%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.30

Over 2,557%

@1.55

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Sollentuna or draw (1X)65%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Sollentuna or draw (1X)65%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Filip Rosenquist to score33%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Filip Rosenquist to score33%
Ludvig Lundvall to be booked19%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Sollentuna	X	2 · Vasalund
Betsafe	2.28	3.45	2.65
LeoVegas	2.30	3.45	2.60
Nordicbet	2.28	3.45	2.65

Odds updated 24 Oct, 15:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Sollentuna win since 21 October — the odds have shortened from 2.52 to 2.28 (−10%).

1-10 %

44 %34 %

2.52 → 2.28

X+1 %

31 %21 %

3.40 → 3.45

2+10 %

40 %30 %

2.42 → 2.65

Betsafe · 13 recorded price levels · 21/10/2026 → 24/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

7 matches

Sollentuna 2Draw 1Vasalund 4

Goals: 9–15 (⌀ 3,4)

Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.

Key facts

Vasalund dominate this fixture historically: 4 wins to 2 in 7 meetings.
A high-scoring fixture: 3.4 goals per meeting on average.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Sollentuna

Vasalund

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Sollentuna (28–37)

Vasalund (39–59)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Sollentuna

Vasalund

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Sollentuna

Vasalund

The teams in numbers

Performance	Sollentuna	Vasalund
Points	28	28
xPoints	34.2	30.9
xG per match	1.1	1.2
xGA per match	1.2	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.17
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.22	0.33

Playing style	Sollentuna	Vasalund
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.36
Field tilt	0.48	0.53
xT per match	1.3	1.4
xTA per match	1.4	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	27	29
Pressing intensity	0.48	0.52
Pressing efficiency	0.22	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.23	0.27
Entries into the box per match	11	14
Entries into the box against	12	14
Pass completion %	0.82	0.8
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.75
Passes per match	381	372
Passes against per match	400	333
Switches of play per match	13	17.9
Long balls per match	33	32

Set pieces	Sollentuna	Vasalund
xG from free kicks	0.12	0.14
Corners per match	4.3	4.5
Corners against per match	4.9	5
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.46	0.51
First touch, defensive corners %	0.62	0.61

Other	Sollentuna	Vasalund
Throw-in control	0.59	0.6

The goalkeepers	Oscar Franck (Sollentuna)	Sindri Olafsson (Vasalund)
Saves	58	72
Save %	73%	64%
xG prevented	50%	45%
Claims	89 (93%)	123 (93%)

Teams & more matches this round

Sollentuna

Fixtures, form & tips

Vasalund

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Sollentuna vs Vasalund according to our model?

The model gives Sollentuna a 42% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Sollentuna 42%, draw 23%, Vasalund 35%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Sollentuna vs Vasalund?

The model expects 1.52 goals (xG) for Sollentuna and 1.43 for Vasalund, 2.95 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Sollentuna or draw (1X) 65%, Vasalund or draw (X2) 58% and no draw (12) 77%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.