01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Assyriska FF or draw (X2)60%
- Over 1.5 goals83%
Swedish Ettan3°13 km/h
Läs på svenska
Umeå FCPossession control3–1
Assyriska FFCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 2 · Assyriska FF (39%)
Umeå FC vs Assyriska FF · Swedish Ettan
1 · Umeå FC 36%X 25%39% Assyriska FF · 2
36%
25%
39%
Prediction summary
Final score 3–1. Before kick-off the model's prediction was as follows. BetBuilders AI model prediction for Umeå FC vs Assyriska FF (Swedish Ettan, Sunday, 18 October 2026): Umeå FC win 36%, draw 25%, Assyriska FF win 39%. Expected goals (xG): Umeå FC 1.65, Assyriska FF 1.54. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%. Double chance: Umeå FC or draw 61%, Assyriska FF or draw 64%. Prediction updated Saturday, 10 October 2026.
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Analysis: Umeå FC – Assyriska FF
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The head-to-head record shows Umeå FC with a perfect streak, having won all three encounters against Assyriska FF since 2023. However, this small sample size doesn't carry much weight compared to current form and expected goals. While Umeå holds the historical upper hand, the model leans toward Assyriska as the more likely victor in this matchup.
Assyriska's counter-attacking style could pose problems for Umeå's possession-based control, especially given their edge in defensive metrics — Assyriska's expected goals against per match are slightly lower than Umeå's. Yet, Umeå seems marginally stronger in offensive metrics, with a slight lead in expected goals and goals within eight seconds of winning the ball.
The model suggests a close contest with probabilities almost evenly split: 36% for Umeå, 39% for Assyriska, and 25% for a draw. Expected goals data imply a tight scoreline, with 1-1 being the most likely outcome at 11%. The odds favor an open game with over 2.5 goals hitting 62%. Given the attacking profiles and goal probabilities, both teams finding the net stands at a strong 64%.
For those seeking value, Assyriska's victory at odds of 3.0 with Betsafe and Nordicbet presents a compelling case. The model's estimation gives them a 39% chance, translating into a significant edge of 16%. While Umeå's home form and past success might deter some, the value bet lies with the visitors, as the model's lean toward Assyriska reflects the dynamics of this clash.
Umeå FCForm WWLWW
League ranking xG #6xGA #26xT #26xP/match #10Points #16
Key players
- Rasmus AnderssonCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.09
- Stefan LindmarkCMxG 0.06 · xT 0.30
- Fredrick Udoh GodwinCDMxG 0.05 · xT 0.04
Assyriska FFForm LWLLW
League ranking xG #19xGA #14xT #12xP/match #12Points #15
Key players
- Kevin JarrettCAMxG 0.16 · xT 0.10
- Victor ÅsbergCDMxG 0.06 · xT 0.10
- Sebastian WändinRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.14
Final score
3 – 1
The model missed the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Umeå FC 36% · Draw 25% · Assyriska FF 39%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Assyriska FFBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 7,44fair 7,93-6 %
MissMatchresultat - Umeå FCBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 4,61fair 6,89-33 %
HitMatch prediction: Umeå FC – Assyriska FF
Predicted score matrix
Assyriska FF →
Umeå FC →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–04.4%
0–16.0%
0–24.9%
0–32.5%
0–4+1.4%
1
1–06.5%
1–110.8%
1–28.1%
1–34.1%
1–4+2.2%
2
2–05.6%
2–18.6%
2–26.6%
2–33.4%
2–4+1.8%
3
3–03.1%
3–14.7%
3–23.6%
3–31.9%
3–4+1.0%
4+
4+–01.8%
4+–12.8%
4+–22.2%
4+–31.1%
4+–4+0.6%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-28%
- 4.2-27%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,65–1,54
Both teams to score
64%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,20
113%
221%
322%
418%
5+22%
Under 2,538%
@2.45
Over 2,562%
@1.49
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Assyriska FF or draw (X2)60%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Felix Felder Aaltonen to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score64%
- Over 2.5 goals62%
- Felix Felder Aaltonen to score28%
- Stefan Lindmark to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Assyriska FF39% probability@3.30BetsafeEV+28%reference odds
- 2 · Assyriska FF39% probability@3.30NordicbetEV+28%reference odds
- 2 · Assyriska FF39% probability@3.20LeoVegasEV+24%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Umeå FC | X | 2 · Assyriska FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.95 | 3.50 | EV+ 28% 3.30 |
| LeoVegas | 1.93 | 3.50 | EV+ 24% 3.20 |
| Nordicbet | 1.95 | 3.50 | EV+ 28% 3.30 |
Odds updated 18 Oct, 03:36
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards a Umeå FC win since 13 October — the odds have shortened from 2.20 to 1.95 (−11%).
1-11 %
49 %39 %
2.20 → 1.95
X-5 %
30 %20 %
3.70 → 3.50
2+25 %
36 %26 %
2.65 → 3.30
Over 2,5+6 %
69 %59 %
1.40 → 1.49
Nordicbet · 10 recorded price levels · 13/10/2026 → 18/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
3 matchesUmeå FC 3Draw 0Assyriska FF 0
Goals: 10–3 (⌀ 4,3)
Head-to-head based on Ettan data since 2023.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Umeå FC
Assyriska FF
Umeå FC (36–42)
Assyriska FF (44–45)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Umeå FC
Assyriska FF
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Umeå FC
Assyriska FF
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Umeå FC | Assyriska FF |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 35 | 35 |
| xPoints | 38 | 37.3 |
| xG per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.28 | 0.25 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.25 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Umeå FC | Assyriska FF |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.38 |
| Field tilt | 0.4 | 0.42 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 27 | 26 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.45 | 0.46 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 13 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 16 | 13 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.78 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.71 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 311 | 302 |
| Passes against per match | 362 | 399 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.3 | 16.6 |
| Long balls per match | 30 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Umeå FC | Assyriska FF |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.17 | 0.12 |
| Corners per match | 5.7 | 4.8 |
| Corners against per match | 5.7 | 4.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.25 | 0.44 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.72 |
| Other | Umeå FC | Assyriska FF |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.57 | 0.56 |
| The goalkeepers | Pontus Eriksson (Umeå FC) | Kingdom Osayi (Assyriska FF) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 62 | 71 |
| Save % | 68% | 68% |
| xG prevented | 47% | 41% |
| Claims | 79 (93%) | 120 (89%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Lunds BK – Trelleborgs FF16 October 2026 19:00 CEST
- IFK Stocksund – Enköpings SK16 October 2026 19:30 CEST
- Ängelholm – Laholm17 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Tvååker – Rosengård17 October 2026 13:00 CEST
- Arlanda – Järfälla17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- FBK Karlstad – Karlberg17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Jönköpings Södra – AFC Malmö17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Skövde AIK – Eskilsminne17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
- Åtvidaberg – Hässleholms IF17 October 2026 16:00 CEST
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Umeå FC vs Assyriska FF according to our model?
The model gives Assyriska FF a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Umeå FC 36%, draw 25%, Assyriska FF 39%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 62% and under at 38%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Umeå FC vs Assyriska FF?
The model expects 1.65 goals (xG) for Umeå FC and 1.54 for Assyriska FF, 3.19 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Umeå FC or draw (1X) 61%, Assyriska FF or draw (X2) 64% and no draw (12) 75%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.