01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Falkenberg or draw (X2)67%
- Over 1.5 goals78%
Swedish SuperettanFinnvedsvallen, Värnamo9°1,2 mm24 km/h
Läs på svenska
IFK VärnamoPossession controlvs
FalkenbergPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Falkenberg (43%)
IFK Värnamo vs Falkenberg · Swedish Superettan
1 · IFK Värnamo 34%X 23%43% Falkenberg · 2
34%
23%
43%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: IFK Värnamo – Falkenberg
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
The tension in this matchup between Värnamo and Falkenberg is palpable, underscored by the model probabilities favoring the visitors at 43% to the hosts' 34%. Despite Värnamo's impressive streak of scoring in nine consecutive league matches, the numbers suggest Falkenberg holds the upper hand. Their superior points tally of 45 over Värnamo's 29, along with a slight edge in expected goals and xPoints, supports this view.
Both teams share a possession control style, which might lead to a tactical deadlock. However, the expected goals — Värnamo at 1.35 and Falkenberg at 1.52 — indicate a match where both sides will likely find the net. The model leans towards a 1-1 draw as the most probable scoreline at 12%, but a narrow Falkenberg win at 1-2 (9%) or 0-1 (8%) also sits prominently in the forecast.
The head-to-head data is sparse, with only one match played since 2024 where Falkenberg came out on top. This small sample doesn't weigh heavily in the analysis, but it hints at Falkenberg's ability to edge out Värnamo. Furthermore, both teams' defensive metrics are identical at an xGA of 1.3, which slightly favors Värnamo's chances to contain Falkenberg's attack.
The over 2.5 goals market is a coin flip at 55%, with both teams to score at 58%, suggesting a tightly contested affair rather than a high-scoring one. But with the odds at LeoVegas offering 2.65 for a Falkenberg win, there's a value play here, boasting a significant 14% edge over the model's probability assessment. This makes backing the visitors a compelling option for those seeking a calculated risk.
IFK VärnamoForm WDWLW
League ranking xG #14xGA #6xT #13xP/match #13Points #11
Key players
- Axel BjörnströmLWxG 0.08 · xT 0.39
- Kai MeriluotoFxG 0.26 · xT 0.01
- Carl JohanssonRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.13
FalkenbergForm WLWWD
League ranking xG #8xGA #7xT #12xP/match #7Points #2
Key players
- Hampus KällströmFxG 0.48 · xT 0.17
- Albin AnderssonFxG 0.45 · xT 0.07
- Linus BorgströmRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.19
Match prediction: IFK Värnamo – Falkenberg
Predicted score matrix
Falkenberg →
IFK Värnamo →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.0%
0–18.3%
0–26.6%
0–33.3%
0–4+1.8%
1
1–07.3%
1–112.0%
1–28.8%
1–34.5%
1–4+2.4%
2
2–05.2%
2–17.8%
2–26.0%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.6%
3
3–02.3%
3–13.5%
3–22.7%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–01.1%
4+–11.6%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.0-18%
- 4.2-18%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,35–1,52
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,545%
@2.02
Over 2,555%
@1.72
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Falkenberg or draw (X2)67%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Hampus Källström to score31%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Hampus Källström to score31%
- Logi Hrafn Robertsson to be booked23%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Falkenberg43% probability@2.75BetsafeEV+18%reference odds
- 2 · Falkenberg43% probability@2.75NordicbetEV+18%reference odds
- 2 · Falkenberg43% probability@2.65LeoVegasEV+14%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · IFK Värnamo | X | 2 · Falkenberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.43 | 3.48 | EV+ 18% 2.75 |
| LeoVegas | 2.35 | 3.35 | EV+ 14% 2.65 |
| Nordicbet | 2.43 | 3.48 | EV+ 18% 2.75 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 15:36
Odds movement
10 %
41 %36 %
2.35 → 2.35
X0 %
30 %25 %
3.35 → 3.35
20 %
37 %32 %
2.65 → 2.65
Over 2,50 %
56 %51 %
1.70 → 1.70
LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesIFK Värnamo 0Draw 0Falkenberg 1
Goals: 1–3 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.
Key facts
- IFK Värnamo have scored in 9 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
IFK Värnamo
Falkenberg
IFK Värnamo (33–45)
Falkenberg (46–33)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
IFK Värnamo
Falkenberg
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
IFK Värnamo
Falkenberg
The teams in numbers
| Performance | IFK Värnamo | Falkenberg |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 29 | 45 |
| xPoints | 30 | 34.7 |
| xG per match | 1.1 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.21 | 0.18 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| Playing style | IFK Värnamo | Falkenberg |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.32 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.5 | 0.42 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| xTA per match | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 33 | 27 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.55 | 0.55 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 16 | 12 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.77 | 0.79 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.72 | 0.72 |
| Passes per match | 378 | 401 |
| Passes against per match | 381 | 393 |
| Switches of play per match | 15.3 | 18.8 |
| Long balls per match | 32 | 33 |
| Set pieces | IFK Värnamo | Falkenberg |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 4.1 |
| Corners against per match | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.42 | 0.42 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.58 | 0.49 |
| Other | IFK Värnamo | Falkenberg |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.47 | 0.56 |
| The goalkeepers | Hugo Keto (IFK Värnamo) | Anton Andersson (Falkenberg) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 81 | 38 |
| Save % | 68% | 64% |
| xG prevented | 47% | 45% |
| Claims | 130 (89%) | 117 (97%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins IFK Värnamo vs Falkenberg according to our model?
The model gives Falkenberg a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: IFK Värnamo 34%, draw 23%, Falkenberg 43%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.