Brage vs Helsingborgs IF Prediction: Away win 39% (11 Oct 2026)

Swedish Superettan11 October 2026 17:00 CESTDomnarvsvallen, Borlänge6°11 km/h

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BragePossession control

Helsingborgs IFPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Helsingborgs IF (39%)Soft draw

1 · Brage 35%X 27%39% Helsingborgs IF · 2

35%

27%

39%

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Analysis: Brage – Helsingborgs IF

Marcus Johansson · 3 October 2026 · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

The matchup between Brage and Helsingborgs IF stands on the knife's edge, as both teams are built around possession control, setting the stage for a tactical battle. Despite the visitors' slight historical dominance with three wins in their last five encounters, the sample size is small and Brage's recent form suggests that this head-to-head record may weigh less than current dynamics. The model leans slightly towards Helsingborgs, giving them a 39% chance of victory, but the expected goals (xG) are remarkably close, suggesting a tight contest.

Brage's approach focuses heavily on retaining the ball, which could be their best weapon against Helsingborgs' similar style. With expected goals aligning closely at 1.55 for the hosts and 1.44 for the visitors, the match is poised to be a game of fine margins. Brage's xPoints of 33.3 compared to Helsingborgs' 27.7 indicate that they might be performing slightly better than their actual points tally suggests, hinting at potential underperformance in converting chances.

The expected goals for both teams underscore the likelihood of a closely contested match, with the most probable scoreline being 1-1 at 12%. The probability of over 2.5 goals is 57%, bolstered by both teams' offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities, yet the rain might suppress scoring opportunities. While the weather is integrated into the model's numbers, a damp pitch could slow down the game and make precision key.

Considering the odds from LeoVegas, the value bet appears to be on Helsingborgs at 2.65, reflecting a 2% edge over the model's predicted 39% probability. This assessment highlights the inherent volatility of the matchup, with both teams having pathways to victory. However, the slight edge in historical outcomes and current market odds positions Helsingborgs as the more tempting option for bettors.

Brage

Form LLDDL

League ranking xG #11xGA #9xT #9xP/match #11Points #15

Key players

Filip TrpcevskiFxG 0.26 · xT 0.08
Gustav NordhLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.64
Alex MortensenFxG 0.27 · xT 0.14

Helsingborgs IF

Form DLWLD

League ranking xG #13xGA #13xT #6xP/match #16Points #10

Key players

Julian LarssonFxG 0.14 · xT 0.13
Max SvenssonLWxG 0.24 · xT 0.48
Alexander JohanssonFxG 0.42 · xT 0.04

Match prediction: Brage – Helsingborgs IF

Predicted score matrix

Helsingborgs IF →

Brage →

0–05.4%

0–16.9%

0–25.2%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.2%

1–07.5%

1–111.5%

1–28.1%

1–33.9%

1–4+1.9%

2–06.0%

2–18.7%

2–26.3%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.5%

3–03.1%

3–14.5%

3–23.2%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.8%

4+–01.7%

4+–12.5%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,55–1,44

Both teams to score

60%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+18%

Under 2,543%

@2.18

Over 2,557%

@1.62

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Helsingborgs IF or draw (X2)60%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Helsingborgs IF or draw (X2)60%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Kevin Appiah Nyarko to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score60%
Over 2.5 goals57%
Kevin Appiah Nyarko to score26%
Daouda Amadou to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Helsingborgs IF39% probability@2.77BetsafeEV+7%reference odds
2 · Helsingborgs IF39% probability@2.77NordicbetEV+7%reference odds
2 · Helsingborgs IF39% probability@2.70LeoVegasEV+4%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Brage	X	2 · Helsingborgs IF
Betsafe	2.37	3.56	EV+ 7% 2.77
LeoVegas	2.30	3.50	EV+ 4% 2.70
Nordicbet	2.37	3.56	EV+ 7% 2.77

Odds updated 4 Oct, 17:36

Odds movement

10 %

42 %37 %

2.30 → 2.30

X+1 %

29 %24 %

3.45 → 3.50

2+2 %

37 %32 %

2.65 → 2.70

Over 2,50 %

60 %55 %

1.60 → 1.60

LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

5 matches

Brage 1Draw 1Helsingborgs IF 3

Goals: 4–9 (⌀ 2,6)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

Key facts

Helsingborgs IF dominate this fixture historically: 3 wins to 1 in 5 meetings.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Brage

Helsingborgs IF

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Brage (39–48)

Helsingborgs IF (36–45)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Brage

Helsingborgs IF

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Brage

Helsingborgs IF

The teams in numbers

Performance	Brage	Helsingborgs IF
Points	23	30
xPoints	33.3	27.7
xG per match	1.2	1.2
xGA per match	1.4	1.4
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.31	0.25
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.24

Playing style	Brage	Helsingborgs IF
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.33
Field tilt	0.44	0.53
xT per match	1.5	1.5
xTA per match	1.6	1.4
Won balls, offensive half	31	33
Pressing intensity	0.54	0.53
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.28	0.29
Entries into the box per match	14	14
Entries into the box against	18	13
Pass completion %	0.77	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.7	0.73
Passes per match	332	411
Passes against per match	383	355
Switches of play per match	19.1	13.5
Long balls per match	34	27

Set pieces	Brage	Helsingborgs IF
xG from free kicks	0.14	0.07
Corners per match	4.7	5.3
Corners against per match	6.1	4.9
xG per corner	0.04	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.05
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.32
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.55

Other	Brage	Helsingborgs IF
Throw-in control	0.55	0.55

The goalkeepers	Viktor Frodig (Brage)	Johan Brattberg (Helsingborgs IF)
Saves	70	78
Save %	64%	68%
xG prevented	44%	45%
Claims	149 (97%)	148 (93%)

Teams & more matches this round

Brage

Fixtures, form & tips

Helsingborgs IF

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Brage vs Helsingborgs IF according to our model?

The model gives Helsingborgs IF a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Brage 35%, draw 27%, Helsingborgs IF 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 60% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.