01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Oddevold or draw (1X)69%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Swedish SuperettanRimnersvallen, Uddevalla7°2,4 mm13 km/h
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OddevoldLow block & directvs
Nordic UnitedCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Oddevold (40%)Best value by the model: 2 · Nordic United @ 3.40 (+13 %)
Oddevold vs Nordic United · Swedish Superettan
1 · Oddevold 40%X 26%33% Nordic United · 2
40%
26%
33%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Oddevold – Nordic United
Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work
Forty percent: that’s the model’s likelihood of an Oddevold victory as they host Nordic United. The statistical edge lies with the hosts, particularly in expected points and goals against. Oddevold's defensive solidity coupled with a direct approach positions them well, despite Nordic United’s capability on the break. With 59% favoring over 2.5 goals, the anticipation isn't misplaced, though the 3.4°C forecast and 2.4 mm of rain might temper player sharpness slightly.
One match is a slim sample, but the lone head-to-head ended in a draw, hinting at a closely fought contest. Both teams sport identical expected goals per match at 1.4, yet Oddevold concedes less, a potential decider in a tight game. The model leans Oddevold's way with the most likely outcomes being 1-1 and 2-1. However, their xG from quick transitions is equally matched, indicating Nordic's threat on counters can’t be overlooked.
Yet, the sharp angle here is betting value. Nordic United at odds of 3.2 with LeoVegas presents a 7% value edge, given the model rates their win probability at 33%. If you're hunting for a market oversight, this might just be it.
OddevoldForm LWWDL
League ranking xG #6xGA #3xT #8xP/match #2Points #6
Key players
- Gustav ForssellFxG 0.20 · xT 0.07
- Vincent SundbergRWxG 0.29 · xT 0.16
- Leonardo Farah ShahinFxG 0.45 · xT 0.05
Nordic UnitedForm LWLDL
League ranking xG #5xGA #12xT #2xP/match #5Points #8
Key players
- Elias DurmazLWxG 0.37 · xT 0.35
- Kalipha JawlaFxG 0.60 · xT 0.00
- Aziz HarabiLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.33
Match prediction: Oddevold – Nordic United
Predicted score matrix
Nordic United →
Oddevold →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.0%
0–16.1%
0–24.4%
0–32.0%
0–4+0.9%
1
1–07.6%
1–111.2%
1–27.5%
1–33.4%
1–4+1.6%
2
2–06.7%
2–19.2%
2–26.3%
2–32.9%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–03.8%
3–15.1%
3–23.5%
3–31.6%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–02.3%
4+–13.2%
4+–22.2%
4+–31.0%
4+–4+0.5%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-111%
- 2.2-19%
- 3.1-08%
- 4.1-27%
- 5.2-07%
Expected goals
1,68–1,37
Both teams to score
61%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
@2.15
Over 2,559%
@1.65
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Oddevold or draw (1X)69%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Leonardo Farah Shahin to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score61%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Leonardo Farah Shahin to score28%
- Teo Grönborg to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Nordic United33% probability@3.40BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
- 2 · Nordic United33% probability@3.40NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
- 2 · Nordic United33% probability@3.25LeoVegasEV+8%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Oddevold | X | 2 · Nordic United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.03 | 3.63 | EV+ 13% 3.40 |
| LeoVegas | 2.00 | 3.60 | EV+ 8% 3.25 |
| Nordicbet | 2.03 | 3.63 | EV+ 13% 3.40 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 00:36
Odds movement
1+1 %
48 %43 %
1.98 → 2.00
X+3 %
28 %23 %
3.50 → 3.60
2+2 %
31 %26 %
3.20 → 3.25
Over 2,50 %
59 %54 %
1.62 → 1.61
LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesOddevold 0Draw 1Nordic United 0
Goals: 3–3 (⌀ 6)
Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Oddevold
Nordic United
Oddevold (38–34)
Nordic United (38–40)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Oddevold
Nordic United
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Oddevold
Nordic United
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Oddevold | Nordic United |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 36 | 36 |
| xPoints | 40.3 | 35.5 |
| xG per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| xGA per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| Playing style | Oddevold | Nordic United |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.37 | 0.37 |
| Field tilt | 0.44 | 0.53 |
| xT per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 40 | 29 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.55 | 0.53 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.28 | 0.26 |
| Entries into the box per match | 14 | 19 |
| Entries into the box against | 14 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.74 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.7 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 328 | 379 |
| Passes against per match | 454 | 406 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.1 | 17 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 32 |
| Set pieces | Oddevold | Nordic United |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| Corners per match | 5.6 | 4.9 |
| Corners against per match | 4.4 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.28 | 0.59 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.54 | 0.58 |
| Other | Oddevold | Nordic United |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.44 | 0.56 |
| The goalkeepers | Morten Sætra (Oddevold) | William Eskelinen (Nordic United) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 71 | 36 |
| Save % | 70% | 63% |
| xG prevented | 50% | 42% |
| Claims | 156 (93%) | 86 (95%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Oddevold vs Nordic United according to our model?
The model gives Oddevold a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Oddevold 40%, draw 26%, Nordic United 33%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.