01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Östersund to win53%
- Under 3.5 goals74%
Swedish SuperettanJämtkraft Arena, Östersund3°24,0 mm20 km/h
Läs på svenska
ÖstersundPossession & high pressvs
Varbergs BoISCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Östersund (53%)
Östersund vs Varbergs BoIS · Swedish Superettan
1 · Östersund 53%X 26%21% Varbergs BoIS · 2
53%
26%
21%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Östersund – Varbergs BoIS
Erik Lindberg · · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work
The head-to-head record since 2024 between Östersund and Varbergs BoIS is finely balanced, with Östersund taking two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five encounters. This small sample suggests a relatively even matchup historically, but the current form and statistical projections tell a different story. Östersund's 12-match unbeaten streak in the league cannot be overlooked, and they enter this clash with a solid 53% probability of victory according to the model.
Östersund's defensive stability is likely to play a crucial role. Their expected goals against per match stands at a tidy 1.0, significantly better than Varbergs BoIS's 1.4. While the visitors thrive on counter-attacking, their defensive vulnerabilities could be exposed by the hosts' possession-heavy, high-pressing approach. The expected goals forecast of 1.63 for Östersund versus 0.96 for the visitors further underscores the likelihood of a home win.
Weather conditions, with rain and a chilly temperature of 1.1°C, could dampen the attacking prospects, suggesting a subdued affair. This is reflected in the model's numbers, with even chances of both teams scoring and a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals. The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 1-0, each stand at 12%, indicating a low-scoring game may be on the cards.
For those intrigued by value, the betting angle here is clear. Östersund's outright win at odds of 2.08 with LeoVegas presents a compelling opportunity, given the model's 53% likelihood of a home victory, offering a substantial 9% edge. In this balanced matchup, backing Östersund to secure a narrow win appears to be the shrewdest play.
ÖstersundForm DWDWD
League ranking xG #10xGA #2xT #3xP/match #10Points #4
Key players
- Simon MarklundRWxG 0.21 · xT 0.20
- Daniel MiljanovicRWxG 0.02 · xT 0.23
- Assiedou Yannick Armel AdjoumaniLWxG 0.14 · xT 0.17
Varbergs BoISForm WDLWW
League ranking xG #7xGA #10xT #10xP/match #9Points #3
Key players
- Shanyder BorgelinFxG 0.37 · xT 0.03
- Albin WinboCAMxG 0.12 · xT 0.40
- Noah JohanssonRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.07
Match prediction: Östersund – Varbergs BoIS
Predicted score matrix
Varbergs BoIS →
Östersund →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.9%
0–16.9%
0–23.4%
0–31.1%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–011.9%
1–112.1%
1–25.6%
1–31.8%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–010.0%
2–19.6%
2–24.6%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–05.4%
3–15.2%
3–22.5%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–03.2%
4+–13.0%
4+–21.5%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.0-08%
Expected goals
1,63–0,96
Both teams to score
50%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,608%
119%
226%
322%
414%
5+12%
Under 2,552%
@1.80
Over 2,548%
@1.95
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Östersund to win53%
- Under 2.5 goals52%
- Amar Begic to score28%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score50%
- Over 2.5 goals48%
- Amar Begic to score28%
- Erion Sadiku to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Östersund53% probability@2.14BetsafeEV+13%reference odds
- 1 · Östersund53% probability@2.14NordicbetEV+13%reference odds
- 1 · Östersund53% probability@2.10LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Östersund | X | 2 · Varbergs BoIS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 13% 2.14 | 3.36 | 3.36 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 10% 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.25 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 13% 2.14 | 3.36 | 3.36 |
Odds updated 3 Oct, 15:36
Odds movement
1+1 %
46 %41 %
2.08 → 2.10
X+2 %
30 %25 %
3.25 → 3.30
2+2 %
31 %26 %
3.20 → 3.25
Over 2,5+1 %
51 %46 %
1.88 → 1.90
LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
5 matchesÖstersund 2Draw 1Varbergs BoIS 2
Goals: 5–6 (⌀ 2,2)
Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.
Key facts
- Östersund are unbeaten in their last 12 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Östersund
Varbergs BoIS
Östersund (33–24)
Varbergs BoIS (44–33)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Östersund
Varbergs BoIS
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Östersund
Varbergs BoIS
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Östersund | Varbergs BoIS |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43 | 44 |
| xPoints | 34 | 34 |
| xG per match | 1.3 | 1.3 |
| xGA per match | 1 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.25 | 0.37 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.18 | 0.21 |
| Playing style | Östersund | Varbergs BoIS |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.36 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.65 | 0.45 |
| xT per match | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| xTA per match | 1.1 | 1.4 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 37 | 36 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.55 | 0.58 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.3 | 0.26 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.3 | 0.27 |
| Entries into the box per match | 17 | 15 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.74 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 454 | 307 |
| Passes against per match | 342 | 370 |
| Switches of play per match | 17.8 | 19.8 |
| Long balls per match | 42 | 35 |
| Set pieces | Östersund | Varbergs BoIS |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Corners per match | 6.1 | 5.3 |
| Corners against per match | 3.7 | 4.7 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.35 | 0.36 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.66 |
| Other | Östersund | Varbergs BoIS |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.58 | 0.45 |
| The goalkeepers | Melker Uppenberg (Östersund) | Oscar Ekman (Varbergs BoIS) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 30 | 41 |
| Save % | 64% | 65% |
| xG prevented | 31% | 40% |
| Claims | 77 (90%) | 84 (94%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Östersund vs Varbergs BoIS according to our model?
The model gives Östersund a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Östersund 53%, draw 26%, Varbergs BoIS 21%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 48% and under at 52%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 50% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.