01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Örebro SK or draw (1X)61%
- Over 1.5 goals79%
Swedish SuperettanBehrn Arena, Örebro9°21 km/h
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Örebro SKPossession controlvs
LjungskilePossession controlThe model's lean: 1 · Örebro SK (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Ljungskile @ 3.21 (+22 %)
Örebro SK vs Ljungskile · Swedish Superettan
1 · Örebro SK 38%X 24%38% Ljungskile · 2
38%
24%
38%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Örebro SK – Ljungskile
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
TEXT: A dead heat on model probabilities, with both sides at 38%, sets the stage for a tense encounter in Superettan between Örebro and Ljungskile. Despite equal betting odds, the underlying stats paint a slightly different picture. Ljungskile holds an edge in expected goals per match, averaging 1.5 compared to the hosts' 1.0, suggesting that the visitors may find sharper attacking opportunities.
The expected goals tally, Örebro at 1.39 and Ljungskile at 1.49, reflects closely contested match expectations. While both teams focus on controlling possession, Ljungskile's marginally higher attacking xG underscores their potential threat. Örebro’s slight advantage in expected goals against (xGA), 1.3 to Ljungskile's 1.4, hints at a marginally more robust defense, but will that be enough to keep Ljungskile's attack at bay?
The numbers align with a lean towards the over 2.5 goals market, which stands at 55%, and both sides finding the net at 58%. Given the small head-to-head sample, historical results weigh less here. The sharp edge lies in betting Ljungskile at odds of 3.05 with LeoVegas, presenting a 16% value according to the model. The most likely scoreline is a tight 1-1 draw, though a narrow Ljungskile win such as 1-2 remains a live possibility given their slight xG edge.
Örebro SKForm DLWDL
League ranking xG #15xGA #8xT #15xP/match #15Points #14
Key players
- Antonio YakoubFxG 0.24 · xT 0.05
- Christopher RedenstrandLWxG 0.05 · xT 0.43
- Karl HolmbergFxG 0.33 · xT 0.00
LjungskileForm LDWLL
League ranking xG #4xGA #11xT #4xP/match #8Points #12
Key players
- Issaka SeiduLWxG 0.13 · xT 0.20
- Lukas Lindholm CornerFxG 0.23 · xT 0.01
- Filip AmbrozCDMxG 0.04 · xT 0.32
Match prediction: Örebro SK – Ljungskile
Predicted score matrix
Ljungskile →
Örebro SK →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.0%
0–18.0%
0–26.2%
0–33.1%
0–4+1.6%
1
1–07.5%
1–112.0%
1–28.7%
1–34.3%
1–4+2.2%
2
2–05.4%
2–18.1%
2–26.0%
2–33.0%
2–4+1.5%
3
3–02.5%
3–13.7%
3–22.8%
3–31.4%
3–4+0.7%
4+
4+–01.2%
4+–11.8%
4+–21.3%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-29%
- 3.2-18%
- 4.0-18%
- 5.1-07%
Expected goals
1,39–1,49
Both teams to score
58%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,90
116%
224%
322%
416%
5+16%
Under 2,545%
@2.20
Over 2,555%
@1.62
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Örebro SK or draw (1X)61%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Antonio Yakoub to score24%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score58%
- Over 2.5 goals55%
- Antonio Yakoub to score24%
- Jacob Ouro Ortmark to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Ljungskile38% probability@3.21BetsafeEV+22%reference odds
- 2 · Ljungskile38% probability@3.21NordicbetEV+22%reference odds
- 2 · Ljungskile38% probability@3.10LeoVegasEV+18%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Örebro SK | X | 2 · Ljungskile |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 2.13 | 3.54 | EV+ 22% 3.21 |
| LeoVegas | 2.10 | 3.45 | EV+ 18% 3.10 |
| Nordicbet | 2.13 | 3.54 | EV+ 22% 3.21 |
Odds updated 4 Oct, 13:36
Odds movement
10 %
46 %41 %
2.10 → 2.10
X0 %
29 %24 %
3.45 → 3.45
2+2 %
32 %27 %
3.05 → 3.10
Over 2,5-1 %
60 %55 %
1.60 → 1.58
LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 04/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
1 matchesÖrebro SK 0Draw 0Ljungskile 1
Goals: 2–3 (⌀ 5)
Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Örebro SK
Ljungskile
Örebro SK (27–39)
Ljungskile (33–36)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Örebro SK
Ljungskile
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Örebro SK
Ljungskile
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Örebro SK | Ljungskile |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 24 | 28 |
| xPoints | 29.4 | 34.7 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.22 | 0.3 |
| Playing style | Örebro SK | Ljungskile |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.37 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.52 | 0.47 |
| xT per match | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| xTA per match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 29 | 32 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.56 | 0.56 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.26 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.29 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 16 |
| Entries into the box against | 15 | 15 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.75 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.69 |
| Passes per match | 421 | 337 |
| Passes against per match | 379 | 349 |
| Switches of play per match | 16.1 | 19.6 |
| Long balls per match | 29 | 37 |
| Set pieces | Örebro SK | Ljungskile |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| Corners per match | 5 | 5.7 |
| Corners against per match | 4.9 | 5.1 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.46 | 0.39 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| Other | Örebro SK | Ljungskile |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.52 | 0.54 |
| The goalkeepers | Jakub Ojrzynski (Örebro SK) | Lukas Eriksson (Ljungskile) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 96 | 86 |
| Save % | 71% | 71% |
| xG prevented | 56% | 54% |
| Claims | 144 (91%) | 154 (95%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Örebro SK vs Ljungskile according to our model?
The model gives Örebro SK a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Örebro SK 38%, draw 24%, Ljungskile 38%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 55% and under at 45%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 58% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.