Norrby vs Öster Prediction: Home win 40% (10 Oct 2026)

Swedish Superettan10 October 2026 17:00 CESTBorås Arena, Borås7°1,8 mm16 km/h

Läs på svenska

NorrbyCounter-attacks & crosses

ÖsterCounter-attacks & crosses

The model's lean: 1 · Norrby (40%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Öster @ 3.05 (+10 %)

1 · Norrby 40%X 24%36% Öster · 2

40%

24%

36%

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Norrby – Öster

Sofia Andersson · 2 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

TEXT: Norrby's recent form at home suggests they're poised for a promising performance against Öster. With an expected goals tally of 1.55, the home side edges ahead slightly offensively, despite the more conventional table points favoring the visitors. Norrby’s style of play—focused on counter-attacks and crosses—aligns with that of their opponents, setting up an intriguing tactical battle. The match is tight on paper, but Norrby’s ability to create high-quality chances might be the tipping point.

The single past encounter between these sides, resulting in a win for Öster, is a slim sample and holds less weight than current form and expected goals data. Interestingly, while Öster has outperformed in terms of points, their underlying metrics tell a different story. With xPoints significantly lower than their current tally (29.8 against Norrby's 37.3), they might be riding a wave of unsustainable finishing or favorable variance.

The expected goals against (xGA) figures give an edge to Norrby as well, with 1.4 compared to Öster’s 1.7. The model's probabilities mark Norrby as slight favorites at 40%, with a draw at 24% and an Öster win at 36%. The probability of both teams finding the net is high at 61%, suggesting the game could be closely contested, with both defenses being breached.

The likelihood of a scoreline like 1-1 or 2-1 reflects the balanced nature of the matchup, but the probability of over 2.5 goals is notable at 58%. This could hint at a game with more action than the cautious model scorelines suggest. Despite the home side's favorable metrics, the strongest betting angle lies with the visitors. There's clear value in betting on an Öster win at odds of 2.95 with LeoVegas, as highlighted by a 36% model probability against a roughly 34% bookmaker implied probability — a 7% edge for the calculated punter.

Norrby

Form LLLLD

League ranking xG #9xGA #14xT #14xP/match #3Points #13

Key players

Julius JohanssonFxG 0.21 · xT 0.16
Azeez Temitope YusufFxG 0.26 · xT 0.01
Olle BacklundRWxG 0.06 · xT 0.21

Öster

Form DLLWL

League ranking xG #12xGA #16xT #11xP/match #14Points #7

Key players

Dennis OlssonLWxG 0.04 · xT 0.50
Linus CarlstrandFxG 0.45 · xT -0.02
Oscar UddenäsRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.12

Match prediction: Norrby – Öster

Predicted score matrix

Öster →

Norrby →

0–05.3%

0–16.9%

0–25.2%

0–32.5%

0–4+1.3%

1–07.4%

1–111.5%

1–28.1%

1–33.9%

1–4+2.0%

2–06.0%

2–18.7%

2–26.3%

2–33.0%

2–4+1.5%

3–03.1%

3–14.5%

3–23.3%

3–31.6%

3–4+0.8%

4+–01.7%

4+–12.5%

4+–21.8%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.2-19%
3.1-28%
4.1-07%
5.0-17%

Expected goals

1,55–1,45

Both teams to score

61%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,0

114%

223%

322%

417%

5+19%

Under 2,542%

@2.35

Over 2,558%

@1.55

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Norrby or draw (1X)65%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Norrby or draw (1X)65%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Julius Johansson to score25%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score61%
Over 2.5 goals58%
Julius Johansson to score25%
Charlie Axede to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Öster36% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
2 · Öster36% probability@3.05NordicbetEV+10%reference odds
2 · Öster36% probability@3.00LeoVegasEV+8%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Norrby	X	2 · Öster
Betsafe	2.15	3.69	EV+ 10% 3.05
LeoVegas	2.10	3.60	EV+ 8% 3.00
Nordicbet	2.15	3.69	EV+ 10% 3.05

Odds updated 3 Oct, 17:36

Odds movement

10 %

46 %41 %

2.10 → 2.10

X+1 %

28 %23 %

3.55 → 3.60

2+2 %

33 %28 %

2.95 → 3.00

LeoVegas · 3 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

1 matches

Norrby 0Draw 0Öster 1

Goals: 1–2 (⌀ 3)

Head-to-head based on Superettan data since 2024.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Norrby

Öster

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Norrby (28–35)

Öster (38–38)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Norrby

Öster

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Norrby

Öster

The teams in numbers

Performance	Norrby	Öster
Points	24	36
xPoints	37.3	29.8
xG per match	1.3	1.2
xGA per match	1.4	1.7
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.21	0.23
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.29

Playing style	Norrby	Öster
Build-up efficiency	0.35	0.35
Field tilt	0.38	0.45
xT per match	1.3	1.4
xTA per match	1.7	1.8
Won balls, offensive half	31	28
Pressing intensity	0.54	0.54
Pressing efficiency	0.26	0.26
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.26	0.27
Entries into the box per match	12	13
Entries into the box against	17	20
Pass completion %	0.73	0.79
Pass completion % under pressure	0.67	0.74
Passes per match	297	375
Passes against per match	450	389
Switches of play per match	19.3	14
Long balls per match	32	29

Set pieces	Norrby	Öster
xG from free kicks	0.16	0.2
Corners per match	5.3	5.1
Corners against per match	5.9	6.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.31	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.5	0.55

Other	Norrby	Öster
Throw-in control	0.45	0.57

The goalkeepers	Sebastian Banozic (Norrby)	Carl Lundahl Persson (Öster)
Saves	78	104
Save %	69%	75%
xG prevented	52%	55%
Claims	158 (92%)	142 (87%)

Teams & more matches this round

Norrby

Fixtures, form & tips

Öster

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Norrby vs Öster according to our model?

The model gives Norrby a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Norrby 40%, draw 24%, Öster 36%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 58% and under at 42%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 61% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.