01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Alanyaspor or draw (1X)71%
- Under 3.5 goals79%
Süper Lig23°3,0 mm19 km/h
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AlanyasporLow block & directvs
ErzurumsporBalanced & physicalThe model's lean: 1 · Alanyaspor (43%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.25 (+6 %)
Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor · Süper Lig
1 · Alanyaspor 43%X 33%24% Erzurumspor · 2
43%
33%
24%
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Analysis: Alanyaspor – Erzurumspor
Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work
Alanyaspor enters this clash with a clear edge, holding a 43% win probability according to the model, while Erzurumspor lags behind at just 24%. The numbers suggest a cautious approach from the visitors is likely, as they will need to counter Alanyaspor's direct play with physical resilience. Both teams have struggled in terms of expected goals, with Alanyaspor slightly outperforming Erzurumspor at 0.96 xG per match compared to 0.69. While the hosts are likely stronger, their advantage appears modest rather than decisive.
Alanyaspor’s propensity to find the net in their last eight league outings enhances their chances further, especially given their direct style. However, their defensive vulnerabilities, reflected in a 1.3 xGA per match, mean that they are far from impenetrable. Erzurumspor, with a balanced setup, might exploit this, despite their own challenges in front of goal. The model leans towards a low-scoring affair, supported by the sub-50% probability for both teams to score (48%) and over 2.5 goals (42%).
Alanyaspor's narrow edge in xPoints (7.7 vs 6.4) and actual points (11 vs 7) further underscores a slight advantage, but nothing that suggests a runaway performance. Given these tight margins, a 1-1 draw seems the most plausible scenario, aligning with the model's 13% suggestion of this scoreline.
Interestingly, the model identifies value in the draw at odds of 3.2 with LeoVegas, offering a 5% edge over the calculated 33% probability. With rain expected, which could further suppress goal opportunities, this draw bet emerges as a sharp angle for those looking to capitalize on the evening's action.
AlanyasporForm WLWDW
League ranking xG #16xGA #9xT #13xP/match #9Points #5
Key players
- Florent HadergjonajRWxG 0.00 · xT 0.29
- Gaius MakoutaCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.06
- Paolo Fernandes CantinRWxG 0.22 · xT 0.36
ErzurumsporForm LDWLW
League ranking xG #18xGA #13xT #16xP/match #15Points #14
Key players
- Eren TozluFxG 0.32 · xT -0.03
- Brandon BaiyeCDMxG 0.02 · xT -0.01
- Guram GiorbelidzeLWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.17
Match prediction: Alanyaspor – Erzurumspor
Predicted score matrix
Erzurumspor →
Alanyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–09.8%
0–19.5%
0–25.1%
0–31.8%
0–4+0.6%
1
1–012.0%
1–113.4%
1–26.8%
1–32.4%
1–4+0.8%
2
2–08.2%
2–18.5%
2–24.5%
2–31.6%
2–4+0.5%
3
3–03.6%
3–13.7%
3–22.0%
3–30.7%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–01.6%
4+–11.6%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.3%
4+–4+0.1%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.1-012%
- 3.0-010%
- 4.0-19%
- 5.2-19%
Expected goals
1,32–1,04
Both teams to score
48%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,4010%
122%
227%
321%
412%
5+9%
Under 2,558%
@1.61
Over 2,542%
@2.19
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Alanyaspor or draw (1X)71%
- Under 2.5 goals58%
- Arda Usluoğlu to score27%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score48%
- Over 2.5 goals42%
- Arda Usluoğlu to score27%
- Eren Tozlu to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- X · Draw33% probability@3.25BetsafeEV+6%reference odds
- X · Draw33% probability@3.25NordicbetEV+6%reference odds
- X · Draw33% probability@3.20LeoVegasEV+5%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Alanyaspor | X | 2 · Erzurumspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.92 | EV+ 6% 3.25 | 4.05 |
| LeoVegas | 1.95 | EV+ 5% 3.20 | 3.65 |
| Nordicbet | 1.92 | EV+ 6% 3.25 | 4.05 |
Odds updated 3 Oct, 07:37
Statistics
Key facts
- Alanyaspor have scored in 8 consecutive league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Alanyaspor
Erzurumspor
Alanyaspor (8–6)
Erzurumspor (3–11)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Alanyaspor
Erzurumspor
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Alanyaspor
Erzurumspor
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Alanyaspor | Erzurumspor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 11 | 7 |
| xPoints | 7.7 | 6.4 |
| xG per match | 0.96 | 0.69 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.5 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.1 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.13 | 0.2 |
| Playing style | Alanyaspor | Erzurumspor |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.42 | 0.44 |
| xT per match | 0.83 | 0.63 |
| xTA per match | 0.97 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 20 | 19 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.22 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.14 | 0.17 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 11 | 11 |
| Pass completion % | 0.73 | 0.77 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.69 | 0.7 |
| Passes per match | 263 | 341 |
| Passes against per match | 432 | 472 |
| Switches of play per match | 19.8 | 29.3 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Alanyaspor | Erzurumspor |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 5.4 | 3.2 |
| Corners against per match | 3.7 | 4.5 |
| xG per corner | 0.03 | 0.02 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.31 | 0.53 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.48 |
| Other | Alanyaspor | Erzurumspor |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.67 | 0.74 |
| The goalkeepers | Paulo Victor de Mileo Vidotti (Alanyaspor) | Ertugrul Taskiran (Erzurumspor) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 23 | 10 |
| Save % | 79% | 77% |
| xG prevented | 56% | 75% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Alanyaspor vs Erzurumspor according to our model?
The model gives Alanyaspor a 43% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Alanyaspor 43%, draw 33%, Erzurumspor 24%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 42% and under at 58%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 48% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.