01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Galatasaray to win77%
- Over 1.5 goals81%
Süper Lig20°14 km/h
Läs på svenska
GalatasarayPossession & high pressvs
KasımpaşaLow block & directThe model's lean: 1 · Galatasaray (77%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.76 (+14 %)
Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa · Süper Lig
1 · Galatasaray 77%X 15%9% Kasımpaşa · 2
77%
15%
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Galatasaray – Kasımpaşa
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
The head-to-head record since 2023 is evenly poised with a small sample of four matches, showing each team with one win and two draws.
should be corrected to reflect: Galatasaray 1W, 2D, 1L.
Full corrected text:
With Galatasaray's home fortress boasting a 78% win rate and Kasimpasa's seven-match unbeaten run, this Süper Lig clash promises intriguing complexities. The hosts, with a possession and high-press style, are the clear favorites at 77% probability of victory, bolstered by their 2.26 expected goals. Yet, Kasimpasa's direct approach and recent resilience pose questions, despite their underdog status with a mere 9% win probability.
Although Kasimpasa has avoided defeat in their last seven league outings, the model's lean towards a Galatasaray win is justified. The hosts' xG per match nearly doubles that of the visitors (2.4 vs. 1.1), indicating a substantial attacking advantage. Meanwhile, defensively, Galatasaray concedes less, evidenced by their xGA of 0.96 compared to Kasimpasa's 1.1. This analytical edge in both attack and defense paints a clear picture of dominance.
The head-to-head record since 2023 is evenly poised with a small sample of four matches: Galatasaray have 1 win, 2 draws, and 1 loss. However, these results weigh less than current form and expected goals metrics. The model's most likely outcomes—2-0, 1-0, and 2-1—align with Galatasaray's strengths, with the controlled home setting likely to stifle Kasimpasa's direct tactics.
In terms of goals, there's a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals, yet only a 49% probability for both teams to score. This suggests a controlled performance by the hosts, likely keeping a clean sheet. The sharpest betting angle lies in the under 3.5 goals market, offering value at odds of 1.667 with LeoVegas, revealing a 6% edge. Given the expected suppression of goals in this tactical matchup, this wager complements the prediction of a Galatasaray victory, likely sealed with a 2-0 scoreline.
GalatasarayForm WWWWL
League ranking xG #1xGA #3xT #1xP/match #3Points #2
Key players
- Victor OsimhenFxG 1.39 · xT 0.09
- Yunus AkgunRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.48
- Roland SallaiRBxG 0.16 · xT 0.23
KasımpaşaForm WDDWD
League ranking xG #11xGA #5xT #15xP/match #5Points #8
Key players
- Adrian Dawid BenedyczakFxG 0.40 · xT 0.05
- Kerem DemirbayCAMxG 0.10 · xT 0.04
- Güven YalçınRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.10
Match prediction: Galatasaray – Kasımpaşa
Predicted score matrix
Kasımpaşa →
Galatasaray →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–05.0%
0–13.5%
0–21.5%
0–30.4%
0–4+0.1%
1
1–010.4%
1–18.7%
1–23.3%
1–30.9%
1–4+0.2%
2
2–012.1%
2–19.6%
2–23.8%
2–31.0%
2–4+0.2%
3
3–09.1%
3–17.2%
3–22.8%
3–30.8%
3–4+0.2%
4+
4+–08.8%
4+–16.9%
4+–22.7%
4+–30.7%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.2-012%
- 2.1-010%
- 3.2-110%
- 4.3-09%
- 5.1-19%
Expected goals
2,26–0,79
Both teams to score
49%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 3,10
114%
222%
322%
417%
5+19%
Under 2,541%
@2.76EV+14%
Over 2,559%
@1.42
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Galatasaray to win77%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Aleksey Batrakov to score25%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score49%
- Over 2.5 goals59%
- Aleksey Batrakov to score25%
- Cláudio Winck Neto to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- Under 2.541% probability@2.76BetsafeEV+14%reference odds
- Under 2.541% probability@2.76NordicbetEV+14%reference odds
- Under 2.541% probability@2.70LeoVegasEV+11%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Galatasaray | X | 2 · Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.24 | 5.45 | 11.50 |
| LeoVegas | 1.23 | 6.00 | 9.50 |
| Nordicbet | 1.24 | 5.45 | 11.50 |
Odds updated 3 Oct, 06:36
Odds movement
10 %
77 %72 %
1.24 → 1.24
X0 %
20 %15 %
5.45 → 5.45
20 %
11 %6 %
11.50 → 11.50
Over 2,50 %
68 %63 %
1.40 → 1.40
Nordicbet · 3 recorded price levels · 02/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesGalatasaray 1Draw 2Kasımpaşa 1
Goals: 9–7 (⌀ 4)
Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.
Key facts
- Kasimpasa are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
- Galatasaray win 78% of their home matches all-time (37 played).
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Galatasaray
Kasımpaşa
Galatasaray (13–10)
Kasımpaşa (7–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Galatasaray
Kasımpaşa
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Galatasaray
Kasımpaşa
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Galatasaray | Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 13 | 10 |
| xPoints | 10.9 | 9.9 |
| xG per match | 2.4 | 1.1 |
| xGA per match | 0.96 | 1.1 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.42 | 0.17 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Playing style | Galatasaray | Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.68 | 0.3 |
| xT per match | 1.7 | 0.66 |
| xTA per match | 0.5 | 1.1 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 30 | 25 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.2 | 0.23 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.28 | 0.27 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.23 | 0.22 |
| Entries into the box per match | 18 | 9 |
| Entries into the box against | 9 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.73 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.77 | 0.67 |
| Passes per match | 423 | 288 |
| Passes against per match | 284 | 456 |
| Switches of play per match | 38.1 | 27.3 |
| Long balls per match | 38 | 30 |
| Set pieces | Galatasaray | Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.06 | 0 |
| Corners per match | 7 | 3.9 |
| Corners against per match | 2.5 | 7.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.05 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.52 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.4 | 0.56 |
| Other | Galatasaray | Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.81 | 0.78 |
| The goalkeepers | Davinson Sanchez (Galatasaray) | Andreas Gianniotis (Kasımpaşa) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 8 | 18 |
| Save % | 100% | 78% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 71% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa according to our model?
The model gives Galatasaray a 77% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Galatasaray 77%, draw 15%, Kasımpaşa 9%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 59% and under at 41%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.