Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe Prediction: Away win 61% (10 Oct 2026)

Süper Lig10 October 202619°7 km/h

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RizesporPossession control

FenerbahçePossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Fenerbahçe (61%)

1 · Rizespor 19%X 20%61% Fenerbahçe · 2

19%

20%

61%

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Analysis: Rizespor – Fenerbahçe

Anna Karlsson · 3 October 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

Fenerbahçe steps into the spotlight with a commanding 61% chance of victory against Rizespor, according to the model. This is a matchup where the visitors' high press and possession style could prove decisive. Despite Rizespor's attempts to control possession, their expected goals (xG) at 1.14 fall short of Fenerbahçe's significant 1.99, indicating the likely pressure the home side will face.

The modest head-to-head record since 2023 shows a small sample, yet it leans heavily towards Fenerbahçe with three wins out of four encounters. Rizespor's xPoints of 7.8 versus 12.1 for their opponents further highlights the gulf in performance metrics. Fenerbahçe's xG per match stands at 2.3, dwarfing Rizespor's 1.3, illustrating a more potent attacking threat. Coupled with their superior defense, conceding an xGA of 0.8 compared to the hosts' 1.2, the visitors look set to control the game.

The model finds value in betting on Fenerbahçe at odds of 1.667 with LeoVegas, rated at 61% probability of winning, offering a 2% edge. Expect a 1-2 or 0-2 scoreline, with a 61% lean towards over 2.5 goals, aligning with the attacking prowess on display.

Rizespor

Form LWLWD

League ranking xG #8xGA #6xT #5xP/match #8Points #9

Key players

Ali SoweFxG 0.21 · xT -0.03
Attila MocsiCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.19
Mithat PalaRWBxG 0.07 · xT 0.16

Fenerbahçe

Form WWLDW

League ranking xG #2xGA #2xT #3xP/match #1Points #6

Key players

Vedat MuriqiFxG 0.77 · xT 0.02
Mason Will John GreenwoodRWxG 0.72 · xT 0.09
Mert MuldurRBxG 0.06 · xT 0.20

Match prediction: Rizespor – Fenerbahçe

Predicted score matrix

Fenerbahçe →

Rizespor →

0–04.7%

0–18.4%

0–28.7%

0–35.8%

0–4+4.5%

1–04.7%

1–110.2%

1–29.9%

1–36.6%

1–4+5.2%

2–02.8%

2–15.6%

2–25.6%

2–33.7%

2–4+2.9%

3–01.1%

3–12.1%

3–22.1%

3–31.4%

3–4+1.1%

4+–00.4%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.4%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-210%
3.0-29%
4.0-18%
5.1-37%

Expected goals

1,14–1,99

Both teams to score

59%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,1

113%

222%

322%

417%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.15

Over 2,561%

@1.64

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Fenerbahçe to win61%
Over 1.5 goals82%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Fenerbahçe to win61%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Vedat Muriqi to score27%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score59%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Vedat Muriqi to score27%
Taylan Antalyalı to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Fenerbahçe61% probability@1.68BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
2 · Fenerbahçe61% probability@1.68NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
2 · Fenerbahçe61% probability@1.67LeoVegasEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Rizespor	X	2 · Fenerbahçe
Betsafe	4.45	3.90	EV+ 3% 1.68
LeoVegas	4.20	3.80	EV+ 2% 1.67
Nordicbet	4.45	3.90	EV+ 3% 1.68

Odds updated 3 Oct, 07:37

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Rizespor 0Draw 1Fenerbahçe 3

Goals: 6–15 (⌀ 5,2)

Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Rizespor

Fenerbahçe

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Rizespor (7–6)

Fenerbahçe (16–6)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Rizespor

Fenerbahçe

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Rizespor

Fenerbahçe

The teams in numbers

Performance	Rizespor	Fenerbahçe
Points	10	10
xPoints	7.8	12.1
xG per match	1.3	2.3
xGA per match	1.2	0.8
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.18	0.44
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.14

Playing style	Rizespor	Fenerbahçe
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.32
Field tilt	0.62	0.6
xT per match	1.1	1.3
xTA per match	0.88	0.86
Won balls, offensive half	24	24
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.24
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.24
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.24
Entries into the box per match	12	16
Entries into the box against	13	10
Pass completion %	0.8	0.83
Pass completion % under pressure	0.75	0.78
Passes per match	392	443
Passes against per match	292	334
Switches of play per match	38.5	34.4
Long balls per match	46	36

Set pieces	Rizespor	Fenerbahçe
xG from free kicks	0.03	0.22
Corners per match	5	6.8
Corners against per match	4.8	4
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.5	0.53
First touch, defensive corners %	0.41	0.54

Other	Rizespor	Fenerbahçe
Throw-in control	0.8	0.83

The goalkeepers	Yahia Fofana (Rizespor)	Ederson Santana de Moraes (Fenerbahçe)
Saves	22	16
Save %	85%	80%
xG prevented	61%	64%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Rizespor

Fixtures, form & tips

Fenerbahçe

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Rizespor vs Fenerbahçe according to our model?

The model gives Fenerbahçe a 61% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Rizespor 19%, draw 20%, Fenerbahçe 61%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.