01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Göztepe or draw (X2)65%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Süper Lig
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EyüpsporLow block & directvs
GöztepeLow block & directThe model's lean: 2 · Göztepe (39%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 1 · Eyüpspor @ 3.75 (+30 %)
Eyüpspor vs Göztepe · Süper Lig
1 · Eyüpspor 35%X 26%39% Göztepe · 2
35%
26%
39%
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Analysis: Eyüpspor – Göztepe
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Göztepe's attacking edge is undeniable as they head to Istanbul, even with the recent head-to-head playing slightly in Eyüpspor's favor. Despite the hosts' unbeaten record in their last four encounters, the small sample size means Göztepe's current form and tactical setup carry more weight. Both teams favor a low defensive line and direct play, but Göztepe executes this strategy more effectively, as shown by their superior xG per match of 1.9 compared to Eyüpspor's 0.75. This suggests that the visitors are more likely to convert their chances into goals.
Eyüpspor's recent struggles are hard to ignore. Three consecutive losses paint a picture of a team desperately searching for form. Their xPoints of 5.4 pale in comparison to Göztepe's 9.4, highlighting the visitors' stronger season performance. While Eyüpspor concedes slightly fewer goals per game (xGA of 1.8 vs. Göztepe's 1.9), their inability to create enough chances (0.07 xG within 8 seconds of winning the ball versus Göztepe's 0.32) leaves them vulnerable against a side that thrives on quick transitions.
The likely shape of the game points to a narrow Göztepe victory, with scorelines of 0-1 or 1-2 both highly probable. The expected goals are close, but the visitors' edge in xG and offensive efficiency cannot be overlooked. With an over 2.5 goal probability of 52% and a both teams to score chance of 56%, the match leans slightly towards a higher-scoring affair, though not overwhelmingly so.
For those eyeing a value bet, Pinnacle offers Göztepe to win at 2.60 odds, reflecting their 39% probability of taking all three points. Given the numbers, this looks like a solid angle to exploit Eyüpspor's ongoing woes and Göztepe's more promising attacking metrics.
EyüpsporForm LWLLL
League ranking xG #17xGA #16xT #18xP/match #18Points #18
Key players
- Talha ÜlvanRWBxG 0.02 · xT 0.10
- Ahmed AbdullahiFxG 0.06 · xT 0.01
- Bilal BoutobbaRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.02
GöztepeForm LLLDD
League ranking xG #3xGA #17xT #11xP/match #6Points #17
Key players
- Juan Santos da SilvaLWxG 0.69 · xT 0.19
- André Henrique da Silva MartinsFxG 0.24 · xT 0.06
- Janderson de Carvalho CostaFxG 0.17 · xT 0.18
Match prediction: Eyüpspor – Göztepe
Predicted score matrix
Göztepe →
Eyüpspor →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–06.7%
0–18.6%
0–26.3%
0–33.0%
0–4+1.4%
1
1–08.2%
1–112.4%
1–28.5%
1–34.0%
1–4+1.9%
2
2–05.7%
2–18.1%
2–25.7%
2–32.7%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–02.6%
3–13.6%
3–22.6%
3–31.2%
3–4+0.6%
4+
4+–01.2%
4+–11.6%
4+–21.2%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.3%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.0-19%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,34–1,41
Both teams to score
56%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,80
117%
224%
322%
415%
5+15%
Under 2,548%
@2.01
Over 2,552%
@1.73
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Göztepe or draw (X2)65%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- André Henrique da Silva Martins to score21%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score56%
- Over 2.5 goals52%
- André Henrique da Silva Martins to score21%
- Taha Altıkardeş to be booked22%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Eyüpspor35% probability@3.75BetsafeEV+30%reference odds
- 1 · Eyüpspor35% probability@3.75NordicbetEV+30%reference odds
- 1 · Eyüpspor35% probability@3.61PinnacleEV+26%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Eyüpspor | X | 2 · Göztepe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 30% 3.75 | 3.50 | 1.92 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 30% 3.75 | 3.50 | 1.92 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 26% 3.61 | 3.56 | 1.81 |
Odds updated 3 Oct, 07:37
Statistics
Head-to-head
4 matchesEyüpspor 1Draw 3Göztepe 0
Goals: 2–1 (⌀ 0,8)
Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.
Key facts
- Eyupspor have lost 3 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Eyüpspor
Göztepe
Eyüpspor (2–16)
Göztepe (11–15)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Eyüpspor
Göztepe
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Eyüpspor
Göztepe
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Eyüpspor | Göztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 3 |
| xPoints | 5.4 | 9.4 |
| xG per match | 0.75 | 1.9 |
| xGA per match | 1.8 | 1.9 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.07 | 0.32 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.34 | 0.35 |
| Playing style | Eyüpspor | Göztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.27 | 0.36 |
| Field tilt | 0.43 | 0.36 |
| xT per match | 0.46 | 0.86 |
| xTA per match | 1.2 | 0.96 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 34 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.22 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.31 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.15 | 0.29 |
| Entries into the box per match | 8 | 13 |
| Entries into the box against | 13 | 14 |
| Pass completion % | 0.78 | 0.63 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.61 |
| Passes per match | 330 | 197 |
| Passes against per match | 380 | 346 |
| Switches of play per match | 27.5 | 15.9 |
| Long balls per match | 31 | 27 |
| Set pieces | Eyüpspor | Göztepe |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.2 | 0.02 |
| Corners per match | 4 | 5.1 |
| Corners against per match | 5 | 4.9 |
| xG per corner | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.62 | 0.48 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.47 | 0.6 |
| Other | Eyüpspor | Göztepe |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.72 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Horațiu Alexandru Moldovan (Eyüpspor) | Luka Gugeshashvili (Göztepe) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 16 | 9 |
| Save % | 55% | 45% |
| xG prevented | 28% | 21% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Eyüpspor vs Göztepe according to our model?
The model gives Göztepe a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Eyüpspor 35%, draw 26%, Göztepe 39%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 52% and under at 48%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.