01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Trabzonspor or draw (X2)68%
- Under 3.5 goals72%
Süper Lig20°0,2 mm11 km/h
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SamsunsporPossession controlvs
TrabzonsporPossession controlThe model's lean: 2 · Trabzonspor (38%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 1 · Samsunspor @ 3.40 (+19 %)
Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor · Süper Lig
1 · Samsunspor 35%X 27%38% Trabzonspor · 2
35%
27%
38%
Bet on this match
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Analysis: Samsunspor – Trabzonspor
Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work
Four consecutive losses hang heavily over Samsunspor as they prepare to face Trabzonspor. The visitors, touted by the model with a 38% chance of victory, hold the slight edge in this clash. Despite both teams sharing a possession-based style, it's Trabzonspor's superior expected goals per match, 1.5 against the hosts' 1.0, that underscores their attacking threat. This, coupled with Samsunspor's recent slump, tilts the balance towards the visitors.
The head-to-head record since 2023, while balanced at two wins apiece, is a small sample and takes a backseat to Trabzonspor's stronger season form. The most likely scoreline prediction of 1-1 at 13% reflects the competitive nature of this fixture, though a 0-1 result at 10% suggests an edge for the visitors. With expected goals slightly favoring Trabzonspor 1.44 to 1.23 and the points gap at 10-4 in their favor, they look poised to capitalize on Samsunspor's vulnerabilities.
From a betting perspective, the value lies in backing the under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.05 with LeoVegas, offering a modest 3% edge. Though both sides are capable, the shared tactical approach and current form suggest a tighter contest than the historical goal average of 3.2 per meeting might imply.
SamsunsporForm WLLLL
League ranking xG #14xGA #8xT #7xP/match #17Points #16
Key players
- Marius MouandilmadjiFxG 0.52 · xT 0.06
- Josafat Wooding MendesRWBxG 0.04 · xT 0.20
- Emre KilincLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.15
TrabzonsporForm WLWLW
League ranking xG #7xGA #10xT #9xP/match #11Points #7
Key players
- Mohamed Salah Hamed Mahrous GhalyRWxG 0.53 · xT 0.18
- Stefan SavicCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.08
- Ernest MuciRWxG 0.27 · xT 0.14
Match prediction: Samsunspor – Trabzonspor
Predicted score matrix
Trabzonspor →
Samsunspor →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.3%
0–19.6%
0–27.2%
0–33.5%
0–4+1.7%
1
1–08.1%
1–112.6%
1–28.8%
1–34.3%
1–4+2.1%
2
2–05.2%
2–17.5%
2–25.4%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–02.1%
3–13.1%
3–22.2%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–00.9%
4+–11.2%
4+–20.9%
4+–30.4%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-110%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,23–1,44
Both teams to score
54%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
118%
225%
322%
415%
5+13%
Under 2,550%
@2.09EV+5%
Over 2,550%
@1.67
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Trabzonspor or draw (X2)68%
- Under 2.5 goals50%
- Ebere Paul Onuachu to score19%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score54%
- Over 2.5 goals50%
- Emre Kılınç to score20%
- Celil Yüksel to be booked25%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Samsunspor35% probability@3.40BetsafeEV+19%reference odds
- 1 · Samsunspor35% probability@3.40LeoVegasEV+19%reference odds
- 1 · Samsunspor35% probability@3.40NordicbetEV+19%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Samsunspor | X | 2 · Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 19% 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.02 |
| LeoVegas | EV+ 19% 3.40 | 3.45 | 1.95 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 19% 3.40 | 3.50 | 2.02 |
Odds updated 3 Oct, 07:37
Statistics
Head-to-head
6 matchesSamsunspor 2Draw 2Trabzonspor 2
Goals: 9–10 (⌀ 3,2)
Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.
Key facts
- A high-scoring fixture: 3.2 goals per meeting on average.
- Samsunspor have lost 4 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Samsunspor
Trabzonspor
Samsunspor (6–12)
Trabzonspor (13–5)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Samsunspor
Trabzonspor
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Samsunspor
Trabzonspor
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Samsunspor | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 4 | 10 |
| xPoints | 5.8 | 7.5 |
| xG per match | 1 | 1.5 |
| xGA per match | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.13 | 0.28 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.37 | 0.15 |
| Playing style | Samsunspor | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| Field tilt | 0.54 | 0.56 |
| xT per match | 1 | 0.97 |
| xTA per match | 0.87 | 0.82 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 25 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.23 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.27 | 0.29 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.25 | 0.24 |
| Entries into the box per match | 12 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 10 | 10 |
| Pass completion % | 0.81 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.76 | 0.78 |
| Passes per match | 460 | 405 |
| Passes against per match | 336 | 295 |
| Switches of play per match | 34.3 | 35.6 |
| Long balls per match | 36 | 40 |
| Set pieces | Samsunspor | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0 | 0.1 |
| Corners per match | 3.9 | 5.5 |
| Corners against per match | 5.5 | 2.8 |
| xG per corner | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.65 | 0.33 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.45 | 0.41 |
| Other | Samsunspor | Trabzonspor |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.78 | 0.76 |
| The goalkeepers | Okan Kocuk (Samsunspor) | André Onana Onana (Trabzonspor) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 24 | 24 |
| Save % | 67% | 83% |
| xG prevented | 62% | 52% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Samsunspor vs Trabzonspor according to our model?
The model gives Trabzonspor a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Samsunspor 35%, draw 27%, Trabzonspor 38%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 50% and under at 50%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 54% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.