Gençlerbirliği vs Amedspor Prediction: Away win 45% (10 Oct 2026)

Süper Lig10 October 2026

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GençlerbirliğiPossession control

AmedsporPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Amedspor (45%)

1 · Gençlerbirliği 29%X 26%45% Amedspor · 2

29%

26%

45%

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Analysis: Gençlerbirliği – Amedspor

Oscar Nilsson · 3 October 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

The TEXT includes a claim not supported by the facts: "despite the small head-to-head sample that doesn't carry much weight yet." No head-to-head data appears in the FACTS. This should be removed.

CORRECTED TEXT:

Amedspor's edge over Gençlerbirliği is evident across various metrics. The visitors have a clear form advantage with 13 points compared to the hosts' 7, a gap supported by expected points. Amed also boasts superior expected goals and a much more robust defensive record, conceding an average of just 1.0 xGA per match against Gençlerbirliği's 2.1. The hosts are on a concerning losing streak, having dropped their last three matches, which makes their task even tougher against a side that's been more efficient at both ends of the pitch.

Both teams employ a similar style, focusing on possession control, yet Amed are doing it more effectively. They average 1.6 xG per match, a significant advantage over Gençlerbirliği's meager 1.0. This discrepancy suggests that the visitors are not only creating more opportunities but also more likely to capitalize on them. The expected goals model leans towards Amed, predicting they'll find the back of the net at least once, perhaps twice, whereas the hosts face an uphill battle just to level the scoreline.

The most likely outcomes according to model probabilities are a 1-1 draw or a 1-2 victory for Amed, reflecting their superiority in both form and statistical backing. The over 2.5 goals probability stands at 56%, indicating a decent chance for goals, but given both teams' playing styles, it might be slightly optimistic. The match could hinge on Amed's ability to exploit Gençlerbirliği's defensive frailties, especially since the hosts are struggling to keep opponents at bay.

For those seeking value, Amed's win at odds of 2.4 with LeoVegas is a standout opportunity. The model's 45% probability suggests a 7% edge over the bookmaker, highlighting a potentially profitable bet. While no outcome is guaranteed, the data points firmly toward Amed taking the spoils in this clash.

Gençlerbirliği

Form WDLLL

League ranking xG #13xGA #18xT #17xP/match #16Points #13

Key players

Adama Malouda TraoréRWxG 0.07 · xT 0.01
Sékou KoïtaFxG 0.38 · xT 0.03
Tiago Maria Antunes GouveiaLWxG 0.10 · xT 0.11

Amedspor

Form LWDWW

League ranking xG #6xGA #4xT #14xP/match #2Points #1

Key players

Gift Emmanuel OrbanFxG 0.81 · xT 0.03
Samuel Leo Beat BalletFxG 0.19 · xT 0.06
Ermal KrasniqiRWBxG 0.06 · xT 0.15

Match prediction: Gençlerbirliği – Amedspor

Predicted score matrix

Amedspor →

Gençlerbirliği →

0–05.6%

0–19.1%

0–28.4%

0–35.0%

0–4+3.4%

1–05.8%

1–111.2%

1–29.7%

1–35.8%

1–4+3.9%

2–03.5%

2–16.3%

2–25.6%

2–33.4%

2–4+2.3%

3–01.4%

3–12.4%

3–22.2%

3–31.3%

3–4+0.9%

4+–00.5%

4+–10.9%

4+–20.8%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.3%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-111%
2.1-210%
3.0-19%
4.0-28%
5.2-16%

Expected goals

1,16–1,79

Both teams to score

57%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,9

115%

223%

322%

416%

5+18%

Under 2,544%

@2.05

Over 2,556%

@1.70

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Amedspor or draw (X2)76%
Over 1.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Amedspor or draw (X2)76%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Diaa Sabi'a to score17%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score57%
Over 2.5 goals56%
Rafael Filipe Gonçalves Soares Luís to score21%
Ousmane Diabate to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Amedspor45% probability@2.45BetsafeEV+10%reference odds
2 · Amedspor45% probability@2.45LeoVegasEV+10%reference odds
2 · Amedspor45% probability@2.45NordicbetEV+10%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Gençlerbirliği	X	2 · Amedspor
Betsafe	2.62	3.50	EV+ 10% 2.45
LeoVegas	2.60	3.45	EV+ 10% 2.45
Nordicbet	2.62	3.50	EV+ 10% 2.45

Odds updated 3 Oct, 12:36

Odds movement

1+2 %

38 %33 %

2.55 → 2.60

X+1 %

29 %24 %

3.40 → 3.45

2+2 %

40 %35 %

2.40 → 2.45

Over 2,5+1 %

57 %52 %

1.68 → 1.70

LeoVegas · 2 recorded price levels · 03/10/2026 → 03/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Genclerbirligi have lost 3 in a row.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Gençlerbirliği

Amedspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Gençlerbirliği (5–13)

Amedspor (15–7)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Gençlerbirliği

Amedspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Gençlerbirliği

Amedspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Gençlerbirliği	Amedspor
Points	7	13
xPoints	6.1	10.9
xG per match	1	1.6
xGA per match	2.1	1
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.2	0.33
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.31	0.18

Playing style	Gençlerbirliği	Amedspor
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.34
Field tilt	0.36	0.4
xT per match	0.61	0.78
xTA per match	1.2	0.67
Won balls, offensive half	18	18
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.28	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.21
Entries into the box per match	9	9
Entries into the box against	16	7
Pass completion %	0.76	0.77
Pass completion % under pressure	0.73	0.73
Passes per match	304	324
Passes against per match	405	395
Switches of play per match	36	21.9
Long balls per match	37	29

Set pieces	Gençlerbirliği	Amedspor
xG from free kicks	0.06	0.1
Corners per match	4.5	4
Corners against per match	6.8	4.4
xG per corner	0.04	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.02
First touch, offensive corners %	0.48	0.4
First touch, defensive corners %	0.53	0.71

Other	Gençlerbirliği	Amedspor
Throw-in control	0.72	0.73

The goalkeepers	Irfan Can Egribayat (Gençlerbirliği)	Alban-Marc Lafont (Amedspor)
Saves	35	17
Save %	73%	71%
xG prevented	53%	39%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Gençlerbirliği

Fixtures, form & tips

Amedspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Gençlerbirliği vs Amedspor according to our model?

The model gives Amedspor a 45% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gençlerbirliği 29%, draw 26%, Amedspor 45%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 56% and under at 44%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.