Gaziantep vs Çorum Prediction: Away win 40% (11 Oct 2026)

Süper Lig11 October 202619°5,6 mm7 km/h

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GaziantepPossession control

ÇorumLow block & direct

The model's lean: 2 · Çorum (40%)

1 · Gaziantep 32%X 28%40% Çorum · 2

32%

28%

40%

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Analysis: Gaziantep – Çorum

Erik Lindberg · 3 October 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

A key factor in this matchup is Gaziantep's possession-based approach, which faces a stern test against a Çorum side that thrives on low defensive blocks and direct counter-attacks. While the hosts have managed to accumulate a slightly higher point total of 8 compared to Çorum's 7, the expected points metric (xPoints) tells a different story, with Çorum edging it at 7.3 to Gaziantep's 7.2. This subtle shift in underlying numbers points to a close contest.

Despite Gaziantep's inclination towards controlling the ball, their xG per match is identical to the visitors at 1.1, indicating that possession hasn’t necessarily translated into higher quality chances. However, Gaziantep does have a slight edge when it comes to creating opportunities within eight seconds of winning possession, posting an xG of 0.22 compared to Çorum's 0.13. This could be crucial in breaking down Çorum's sturdy defense.

The model assigns a 40% probability to an away win, slightly higher than Gaziantep’s 32% chance of victory. Given Çorum's tactical discipline and direct style, which may thrive especially under rainy conditions, they appear well-suited to exploit any lapses from a possession-heavy side like Gaziantep. The expected goals tally of 1.45 for the visitors underscores their threat.

Most likely scorelines suggest a tight contest, with a 1-1 draw at 12% being the most probable outcome. However, the model isn't dismissive of a narrow Çorum win, either 0-1 or 1-2, each at 9%. The over/under 2.5 goals market leans just over with a 51% probability, yet the match might just settle under if the weather and defensive postures take precedence.

For those betting, the away win with Çorum at odds of 2.55 on LeoVegas is where the value lies, offering a 1% edge according to the model's evaluation. While it’s not a guarantee, it’s a well-reasoned angle for those seeking a calculated risk.

Gaziantep

Form WLWDL

League ranking xG #10xGA #11xT #12xP/match #14Points #10

Key players

Halil DervisogluFxG 0.18 · xT 0.03
Trivante Vincent StewartFxG 0.47 · xT 0.01
Deian SorescuRWxG 0.18 · xT 0.25

Çorum

Form LLWWL

League ranking xG #9xGA #12xT #6xP/match #13Points #11

Key players

Alexandros KyziridisLWxG 0.23 · xT 0.25
Cengiz UnderRWxG 0.19 · xT 0.16
Jesús Andrés Ramírez DíazFxG 0.42 · xT -0.02

Match prediction: Gaziantep – Çorum

Predicted score matrix

Çorum →

Gaziantep →

0–06.9%

0–19.1%

0–26.8%

0–33.3%

0–4+1.6%

1–08.0%

1–112.5%

1–28.8%

1–34.2%

1–4+2.1%

2–05.4%

2–17.8%

2–25.6%

2–32.7%

2–4+1.3%

3–02.3%

3–13.3%

3–22.4%

3–31.2%

3–4+0.6%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.4%

4+–21.0%

4+–30.5%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.0-19%
3.1-29%
4.1-08%
5.2-18%

Expected goals

1,28–1,45

Both teams to score

56%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,7

117%

225%

322%

415%

5+14%

Under 2,549%

@1.86

Over 2,551%

@1.86

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Çorum or draw (X2)67%
Over 1.5 goals76%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Çorum or draw (X2)67%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Mohammed Baba Diomande to score16%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score56%
Over 2.5 goals51%
Mohammed Baba Diomande to score16%
Ylber Ramadani to be booked22%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Çorum40% probability@2.60BetsafeEV+3%reference odds
2 · Çorum40% probability@2.60NordicbetEV+3%reference odds
2 · Çorum40% probability@2.55LeoVegasEV+1%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Gaziantep	X	2 · Çorum
Betsafe	2.60	3.30	EV+ 3% 2.60
LeoVegas	2.55	3.20	EV+ 1% 2.55
Nordicbet	2.60	3.30	EV+ 3% 2.60

Odds updated 3 Oct, 07:37

Statistics

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Gaziantep

Çorum

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Gaziantep (7–7)

Çorum (13–12)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Gaziantep

Çorum

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Gaziantep

Çorum

The teams in numbers

Performance	Gaziantep	Çorum
Points	8	7
xPoints	7.2	7.3
xG per match	1.1	1.1
xGA per match	1.5	1.5
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.22	0.13
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.17

Playing style	Gaziantep	Çorum
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.34
Field tilt	0.42	0.53
xT per match	0.85	1.1
xTA per match	1.1	1.3
Won balls, offensive half	23	22
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.25
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.23
Entries into the box per match	9	10
Entries into the box against	12	14
Pass completion %	0.76	0.82
Pass completion % under pressure	0.71	0.77
Passes per match	345	441
Passes against per match	354	355
Switches of play per match	40	42.2
Long balls per match	43	45

Set pieces	Gaziantep	Çorum
xG from free kicks	0.02	0
Corners per match	3.6	4.5
Corners against per match	3.9	5
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.52	0.41
First touch, defensive corners %	0.65	0.37

Other	Gaziantep	Çorum
Throw-in control	0.73	0.64

The goalkeepers	Kacper Tobiasz (Gaziantep)	Marcos Felipe de Freitas Monteiro (Çorum)
Saves	13	22
Save %	65%	65%
xG prevented	45%	42%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Gaziantep

Fixtures, form & tips

Çorum

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Gaziantep vs Çorum according to our model?

The model gives Çorum a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Gaziantep 32%, draw 28%, Çorum 40%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 56% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.