01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Erzurumspor to win56%
- Over 1.5 goals76%
Süper Lig17°22 km/h
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ErzurumsporBalanced & physical1–0
KonyasporCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Erzurumspor (56%)
Erzurumspor – Konyaspor · Süper Lig
1 · Erzurumspor 56%X 24%20% Konyaspor · 2
56%
24%
20%
Analysis: Erzurumspor – Konyaspor
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
The most likely scoreline according to the data is 1-1, not 1-0. Here's the corrected text:
Konyaspor's troubling six-game losing streak looms large ahead of their visit to Erzurumspor. The model favors the hosts with a 56% win probability, reflecting both current form and tactical styles. Erzurumspor’s balanced and physical approach contrasts with Konyaspor's reliance on counter-attacks and crosses, a strategy that has faltered recently. Despite Konyaspor's slight edge in expected points and goals per match, the numbers align more closely with the hosts.
The most likely scorelines, 1-1 and 1-0, suggest a moderately tight affair. Erzurumspor’s expected goals (1.75) are notably higher than the visitors' (0.96), indicating potential dominance if they capitalize on their chances. However, with both teams' defenses leaking goals—Konyaspor with a slightly worse expected goals against—the match could swing on defensive mistakes. The over 2.5 goals probability sits at 51%, but given the tactical profiles, a low-scoring game is plausible.
The sharpest angle lies with backing Erzurumspor at odds of 2.25 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet, where the model identifies a 27% edge. This mirrors not just potential value but also Konyaspor's ongoing struggles. The data points towards a tight scoreline such as 1-1 or 1-0, underscored by Konyaspor's inability to break their downward spiral.
ErzurumsporForm LLD
League ranking xG #18xGA #12xT #14xP/match #17Points #17
Key players
- Eren TozluFxG 0.39 · xT -0.03
- Yakup KirtayCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.08
- Amar GërxhaliuCBxG 0.01 · xT 0.07
KonyasporForm LLLLL
League ranking xG #13xGA #13xT #5xP/match #11Points #18
Key players
- Rajmund TóthFxG 0.12 · xT 0.05
- Yhoan Many AndzouanaRWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.28
- Deniz TurucRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.25
Final score
1 – 0
The model called the outcome
Predicted probabilities: Erzurumspor 56% · Draw 24% · Konyaspor 20%
How the bookmaker bet builders went
The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.
Matchresultat - Erzurumspor FKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 8,35fair 6,92+21 %
MissMatchresultat - KonyasporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
odds 11,26fair 22,67-50 %
MissMatch prediction: Erzurumspor – Konyaspor
Predicted score matrix
Konyaspor →
Erzurumspor →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.0%
0–16.1%
0–23.1%
0–31.0%
0–4+0.3%
1
1–011.3%
1–111.5%
1–25.4%
1–31.7%
1–4+0.5%
2
2–010.2%
2–19.8%
2–24.7%
2–31.5%
2–4+0.4%
3
3–05.9%
3–15.7%
3–22.7%
3–30.9%
3–4+0.3%
4+
4+–03.9%
4+–13.7%
4+–21.8%
4+–30.6%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-112%
- 2.1-011%
- 3.2-010%
- 4.2-110%
- 5.0-07%
Expected goals
1,75–0,96
Both teams to score
51%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@1.73
Over 2,551%
@2.41EV+2%
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Erzurumspor to win56%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Giovanni Crociata to score23%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score51%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- Giovanni Crociata to score23%
- Eren Tozlu to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 1 · Erzurumspor56% probability@2.49PinnacleEV+40%reference odds
- 1 · Erzurumspor56% probability@2.25BetsafeEV+27%reference odds
- 1 · Erzurumspor56% probability@2.25BetssonEV+27%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Erzurumspor | X | 2 · Konyaspor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | EV+ 27% 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| Betsson | EV+ 27% 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| Nordicbet | EV+ 27% 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.10 |
| Pinnacle | EV+ 40% 2.49 | 3.18 | 3.13 |
Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:33
Odds movement
Market signal
The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 1.77 to 1.60 (−10%).
1+11 %
45 %35 %
2.25 → 2.49
X-6 %
34 %24 %
3.37 → 3.18
2-2 %
35 %25 %
3.19 → 3.13
Over 2,5+18 %
48 %38 %
2.05 → 2.41
Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Konyaspor have lost 6 in a row.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Erzurumspor
Konyaspor
Erzurumspor (1–8)
Konyaspor (3–7)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Erzurumspor
Konyaspor
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Erzurumspor
Konyaspor
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Erzurumspor | Konyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 1 | 0 |
| xPoints | 2.2 | 3.4 |
| xG per match | 0.64 | 0.99 |
| xGA per match | 1.5 | 1.6 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.2 | 0.21 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| Playing style | Erzurumspor | Konyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.33 | 0.31 |
| Field tilt | 0.56 | 0.34 |
| xT per match | 0.63 | 1.2 |
| xTA per match | 0.76 | 1.2 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 22 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.21 | 0.21 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.2 | 0.19 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| Entries into the box per match | 9 | 10 |
| Entries into the box against | 8 | 17 |
| Pass completion % | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.75 |
| Passes per match | 430 | 341 |
| Passes against per match | 409 | 412 |
| Switches of play per match | 31.9 | 38.2 |
| Long balls per match | 34 | 44 |
| Set pieces | Erzurumspor | Konyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Corners per match | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| Corners against per match | 3.1 | 5.9 |
| xG per corner | 0 | 0.04 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.09 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.27 | 0.6 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.67 | 0.44 |
| Other | Erzurumspor | Konyaspor |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.8 | 0.71 |
| The goalkeepers | Amar Gërxhaliu (Erzurumspor) | Deniz Ertas (Konyaspor) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 3 | 12 |
| Save % | 100% | 63% |
| xG prevented | 100% | 40% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
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Frequently asked questions
Who wins Erzurumspor vs Konyaspor according to our model?
The model gives Erzurumspor a 56% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Erzurumspor 56%, draw 24%, Konyaspor 20%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 51% according to the model.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
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Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.