Süper Lig24°22 km/h

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    KasımpaşaKasımpaşaLow block & direct
    2–2
    AmedsporAmedsporPossession control
    The model's lean: 2 · Amedspor (40%)

    Kasımpaşa – Amedspor · Süper Lig

    1 · Kasımpaşa 31%X 29%40% Amedspor · 2

    Analysis: Kasımpaşa – Amedspor

    Oscar Nilsson · · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

    Amedspor's assertive possession style meets Kasımpaşa's more defensive, direct approach, setting up a compelling tactical battle. The model's figures suggest Amedspor has a firm edge, with a 40% probability of victory versus the hosts' 31%. This clash of styles is underscored by Amed's superior expected goals tally of 1.43 to Kasımpaşa's 1.02, indicating that the visitors are better equipped to convert possession into chances.

    Kasımpaşa's strategy hinges on absorbing pressure and striking on the counter. However, Amed's robust defense, conceding just 0.74 expected goals per match compared to Kasımpaşa's 0.96, suggests that the hosts might struggle to exploit this plan effectively. The numbers further indicate Amed's slight superiority in both actual and expected points, suggesting their form is a bit sharper.

    While the head-to-head record between Kasımpaşa and Amed is too limited to weigh heavily, the most probable scorelines lean towards either a 1-1 draw or a 0-1 away victory. The game's expected goals lean towards a relatively tight contest, with a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% probability of both sides scoring. Such figures suggest a cautious affair, likely to be decided by a single goal.

    For those seeking value, the odds favoring Amed at 2.98 present a significant opportunity. Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet all offer this price, reflecting a 19% edge based on the model's 40% victory probability for Amed. This value opportunity frames Amedspor as a compelling pick to edge out Kasımpaşa in a closely contested match.

    KasımpaşaKasımpaşa
    Form LWDWD
    League ranking xG #10xGA #6xT #13xP/match #5Points #8
    Key players
    • Adrian Dawid BenedyczakFxG 0.49 · xT 0.08
    • Kerem DemirbayCAMxG 0.08 · xT 0.05
    • Fousseni DiabatéRWxG 0.33 · xT 0.01
    AmedsporAmedspor
    Form WLW
    League ranking xG #6xGA #2xT #12xP/match #4Points #5
    Key players
    • Diaa Sabi'aFxG 0.24 · xT 0.08
    • Ermal KrasniqiRWxG 0.09 · xT 0.10
    • Lumbardh DellovaCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.11
    Final score
    2 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Kasımpaşa 31% · Draw 29% · Amedspor 40%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - Amed SFKBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 11,23fair 9,93+13 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: Kasımpaşa – Amedspor

    Predicted score matrix

    Amedspor →
    Kasımpaşa →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–09.0%
    0–112.0%
    0–28.8%
    0–34.2%
    0–4+2.1%
    1
    1–08.4%
    1–112.9%
    1–29.0%
    1–34.3%
    1–4+2.1%
    2
    2–04.5%
    2–16.4%
    2–24.6%
    2–32.2%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–01.5%
    3–12.2%
    3–21.6%
    3–30.7%
    3–4+0.4%
    4+
    4+–00.5%
    4+–10.7%
    4+–20.5%
    4+–30.2%
    4+–4+0.1%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-113%
    2. 2.0-112%
    3. 3.1-29%
    4. 4.0-09%
    5. 5.0-29%
    Expected goals
    1,02–1,43
    Both teams to score
    49%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,5
    Under 2,556%
    @1.79
    Over 2,544%
    @2.26EV+0%

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Amedspor or draw (X2)74%
    • Under 3.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    56%

    Fair odds

    1.79

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Amedspor or draw (X2)74%
    • Under 2.5 goals56%
    • Mbaye Diagne to score25%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score49%
    • Over 2.5 goals44%
    • Mbaye Diagne to score25%
    • Adama Noss Traoré to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Amedspor40% probability@3.40Betfair ExchangeEV+36%reference odds
    • 2 · Amedspor40% probability@3.20Bet365EV+28%reference odds
    • 2 · Amedspor40% probability@2.94PinnacleEV+18%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · KasımpaşaX2 · Amedspor
    Bet3652.153.30
    EV+ 28%
    3.20
    Betfair Exchange2.181.10
    EV+ 36%
    3.40
    Betsafe2.523.10
    EV+ 13%
    2.82
    Betsson2.523.10
    EV+ 13%
    2.82
    Nordicbet2.523.10
    EV+ 13%
    2.82
    Pinnacle2.623.18
    EV+ 18%
    2.94

    Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

    Odds movement

    1+8 %
    41 %36 %

    2.42 → 2.62

    X-3 %
    32 %27 %

    3.29 → 3.18

    2-1 %
    34 %29 %

    2.97 → 2.94

    Over 2,5+5 %
    46 %41 %

    2.16 → 2.26

    Pinnacle · 8 recorded price levels · 04/09/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Kasımpaşa
    Amedspor
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Kasımpaşa (3–2)
    Amedspor (5–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Kasımpaşa
    Matei Cristian Ilie: 89 passningar, xT 0.03IlieAndreas Gianniotis: 75 passningar, xT 0.05GianniotisAdem Arous: 74 passningar, xT 0.07ArousClaudio Winck: 67 passningar, xT 0.34WinckKerem Demirbay: 63 passningar, xT 0.07DemirbayJakob Vestergaard Jessen: 59 passningar, xT 0.06JessenElson Mendes Da Silva: 55 passningar, xT 0.01SilvaAndri Fannar Baldursson: 43 passningar, xT -0.01BaldurssonFousseni Diabaté: 41 passningar, xT -0.01DiabatéAyberk Karapo: 33 passningar, xT 0.06KarapoAli Yavuz Kol: 29 passningar, xT 0.03Kol
    Amedspor
    Lumbardh Dellova: 164 passningar, xT 0.33DellovaDavid Robert Bates: 147 passningar, xT 0.21BatesRayan Ny Aina Arnaldo Raveloson: 108 passningar, xT 0.03RavelosonErmal Krasniqi: 88 passningar, xT 0.24KrasniqiMehmet Yesil: 88 passningar, xT 0.13YesilAlban-Marc Lafont: 83 passningar, xT 0.06LafontUmut Meras: 63 passningar, xT 0.08MerasYira Collins Sor: 62 passningar, xT 0.02SorDiaa Sabi'a: 57 passningar, xT 0.19Sabi'aSamuel Leo Beat Ballet: 47 passningar, xT 0.07BalletGokhan Gul: 47 passningar, xT 0.23Gul
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Kasımpaşa
    Matei Cristian Ilie: 89 passningar, xT 0.03IlieAndreas Gianniotis: 75 passningar, xT 0.05GianniotisAdem Arous: 74 passningar, xT 0.07ArousClaudio Winck: 67 passningar, xT 0.34WinckKerem Demirbay: 63 passningar, xT 0.07DemirbayJakob Vestergaard Jessen: 59 passningar, xT 0.06JessenElson Mendes Da Silva: 55 passningar, xT 0.01SilvaAndri Fannar Baldursson: 43 passningar, xT -0.01BaldurssonFousseni Diabaté: 41 passningar, xT -0.01DiabatéAyberk Karapo: 33 passningar, xT 0.06KarapoAli Yavuz Kol: 29 passningar, xT 0.03Kol
    Amedspor
    Lumbardh Dellova: 164 passningar, xT 0.33DellovaDavid Robert Bates: 147 passningar, xT 0.21BatesRayan Ny Aina Arnaldo Raveloson: 108 passningar, xT 0.03RavelosonErmal Krasniqi: 88 passningar, xT 0.24KrasniqiMehmet Yesil: 88 passningar, xT 0.13YesilAlban-Marc Lafont: 83 passningar, xT 0.06LafontUmut Meras: 63 passningar, xT 0.08MerasYira Collins Sor: 62 passningar, xT 0.02SorDiaa Sabi'a: 57 passningar, xT 0.19Sabi'aSamuel Leo Beat Ballet: 47 passningar, xT 0.07BalletGokhan Gul: 47 passningar, xT 0.23Gul

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceKasımpaşaAmedspor
    Points56
    xPoints5.55.8
    xG per match1.11.4
    xGA per match0.960.74
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.150.09
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.090.23
    Playing styleKasımpaşaAmedspor
    Build-up efficiency0.320.34
    Field tilt0.240.44
    xT per match0.650.72
    xTA per match1.40.53
    Won balls, offensive half2121
    Pressing intensity0.230.2
    Pressing efficiency0.240.26
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.160.22
    Entries into the box per match69
    Entries into the box against156
    Pass completion %0.710.78
    Pass completion % under pressure0.670.76
    Passes per match250343
    Passes against per match566379
    Switches of play per match2218.6
    Long balls per match2622
    Set piecesKasımpaşaAmedspor
    xG from free kicks00.21
    Corners per match24.2
    Corners against per match7.53.8
    xG per corner0.060.03
    xGA per corner against0.010
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50.31
    First touch, defensive corners %0.640.82
    OtherKasımpaşaAmedspor
    Throw-in control0.730.71
    The goalkeepersAndreas Gianniotis (Kasımpaşa)Alban-Marc Lafont (Amedspor)
    Saves86
    Save %80%67%
    xG prevented80%49%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Kasımpaşa
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Amedspor
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Kasımpaşa vs Amedspor according to our model?

    The model gives Amedspor a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kasımpaşa 31%, draw 29%, Amedspor 40%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 49% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.