Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor: Prediction & Odds (6 Sept 2026)

Süper Lig6 September 2026

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KocaelisporPossession control

1–0

SamsunsporPossession control

The model's lean: 2 · Samsunspor (39%)

1 · Kocaelispor 30%X 32%39% Samsunspor · 2

30%

32%

39%

Analysis: Kocaelispor – Samsunspor

Erik Lindberg · 5 September 2026 · Written from the model's numbers · How the predictions work

Samsunspor enters this match with a slight statistical edge, holding a 39% win probability according to the model, against Kocaelispor's 30%. The most likely outcomes—1-1, 0-1, and 0-0—paint a picture of a low-scoring affair. Both sides adopt a possession control style, likely leading to a tightly contested midfield battle with limited clear-cut chances.

Kocaelispor may have a slight upper hand in the league table with six points to Samsunspor's four, but the expected goals (xG) numbers tell a different story. Samsunspor's 1.25 xG per match outshines the hosts' 1.06, suggesting that the visitors have been more potent in attack despite their lower point tally. Defensively, Kocaelispor concedes fewer expected goals per match at 1.4 compared to Samsunspor's 1.6, further hinting at a possible stalemate.

The head-to-head record is small with just two matches since 2023, favoring the visitors with one draw and one win. However, this limited sample holds less weight than current form and expected goals metrics. The under 2.5 goals market leans at 59%, aligning with the anticipated defensive approaches from both sides. A cagey encounter seems likely, with both teams diligently protecting their backlines.

For bettors seeking value, the away win is particularly attractive. Samsunspor's odds are available at 2.95 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet. Given the model's 39% win probability for the visitors, this presents a substantial 14% edge. It's a calculated risk, but one that aligns well with the statistical narrative laid out.

In such a balanced matchup, the smart play leans towards a 0-1 scoreline for Samsunspor. The numbers agree, especially considering the expected goals and cautious playing styles. It's a conservative bet, but one that could pay dividends.

Kocaelispor

Form LLLWW

League ranking xG #14xGA #11xT #9xP/match #12Points #6

Key players

Daniel Ebenezer Kwasi AgyeiFxG 0.10 · xT 0.02
Manuel Luís da Silva CafumanaCMxG 0.03 · xT 0.11
Massadio HaïdaraLWBxG 0.13 · xT 0.22

Samsunspor

Form LWDWL

League ranking xG #12xGA #14xT #11xP/match #15Points #11

Key players

Marius MouandilmadjiFxG 0.77 · xT 0.00
Josafat Wooding MendesRWBxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
Fatih KayaFxG 0.43 · xT -0.02

Final score

1 – 0

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Kocaelispor 30% · Draw 32% · Samsunspor 39%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - SamsunsporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 13,87fair 13,15+6 %

Miss

Matchresultat - KocaelisporBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 9,01fair 18,07-50 %

Miss

Match prediction: Kocaelispor – Samsunspor

Predicted score matrix

Samsunspor →

Kocaelispor →

0–010.4%

0–112.0%

0–27.7%

0–33.2%

0–4+1.3%

1–010.2%

1–113.5%

1–28.2%

1–33.4%

1–4+1.4%

2–05.6%

2–17.0%

2–24.3%

2–31.8%

2–4+0.7%

3–02.0%

3–12.5%

3–21.5%

3–30.6%

3–4+0.3%

4+–00.7%

4+–10.8%

4+–20.5%

4+–30.2%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-114%
2.0-112%
3.0-010%
4.1-010%
5.1-28%

Expected goals

1,06–1,25

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,3

010%

122%

227%

320%

412%

5+8%

Under 2,559%

@1.67

Over 2,541%

@2.28

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Samsunspor or draw (X2)69%
Under 3.5 goals80%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Samsunspor or draw (X2)69%
Under 2.5 goals59%
Marius Mouandilmadji to score34%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals41%
Marius Mouandilmadji to score34%
Manuel Luís da Silva Cafumana to be booked25%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · Samsunspor39% probability@3.63PinnacleEV+40%reference odds
2 · Samsunspor39% probability@3.45BetsafeEV+33%reference odds
2 · Samsunspor39% probability@3.45BetssonEV+33%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Kocaelispor	X	2 · Samsunspor
Betsafe	2.22	3.00	EV+ 33% 3.45
Betsson	2.22	3.00	EV+ 33% 3.45
Nordicbet	2.22	3.00	EV+ 33% 3.45
Pinnacle	2.29	3.08	EV+ 40% 3.63

Odds updated 6 Sept, 11:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Kocaelispor win since 31 August — the odds have shortened from 2.67 to 2.29 (−14%).

1-14 %

44 %34 %

2.67 → 2.29

X+4 %

37 %27 %

2.95 → 3.08

2+23 %

34 %24 %

2.95 → 3.63

Over 2,5+4 %

47 %37 %

2.20 → 2.28

Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 31/08/2026 → 06/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

2 matches

Kocaelispor 0Draw 1Samsunspor 1

Goals: 0–1 (⌀ 0,5)

Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Kocaelispor

Samsunspor

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Kocaelispor (4–3)

Samsunspor (5–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Kocaelispor

Samsunspor

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Kocaelispor

Samsunspor

The teams in numbers

Performance	Kocaelispor	Samsunspor
Points	6	4
xPoints	3.3	2.9
xG per match	0.84	1
xGA per match	1.4	1.6
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.16	0.18
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.18	0.38

Playing style	Kocaelispor	Samsunspor
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.29
Field tilt	0.55	0.52
xT per match	0.99	0.85
xTA per match	1.1	1.1
Won balls, offensive half	25	25
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.23
Pressing efficiency	0.24	0.28
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.24
Entries into the box per match	9	11
Entries into the box against	11	12
Pass completion %	0.78	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.74
Passes per match	380	403
Passes against per match	388	325
Switches of play per match	25.3	25.5
Long balls per match	27	34

Set pieces	Kocaelispor	Samsunspor
xG from free kicks	0.06	0
Corners per match	3	2
Corners against per match	5.1	8
xG per corner	0.01	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.02	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.44	0.5
First touch, defensive corners %	0.6	0.46

Other	Kocaelispor	Samsunspor
Throw-in control	0.65	0.78

The goalkeepers	Emir Ortakaya (Kocaelispor)	Okan Kocuk (Samsunspor)
Saves	6	17
Save %	100%	77%
xG prevented	100%	75%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Kocaelispor

Fixtures, form & tips

Samsunspor

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Kocaelispor vs Samsunspor according to our model?

The model gives Samsunspor a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Kocaelispor 30%, draw 32%, Samsunspor 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 14% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 41% and under at 59%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.