Fenerbahçe vs Besiktas JK: Prediction & Odds (5 Sept 2026)

Süper Lig5 September 202625°19 km/h

Läs på svenska

FenerbahçeBalanced & physical

1–2

Besiktas JKPossession & high press

The model's lean: 1 · Fenerbahçe (48%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.95 (+9 %)

1 · Fenerbahçe 48%X 27%24% Besiktas JK · 2

48%

27%

24%

Analysis: Fenerbahçe – Besiktas JK

Oscar Nilsson · 5 September 2026 · Model-assisted analysis, fact-checked · How the predictions work

Fenerbahçe sets the stage with their impressive home win rate of 72%, suggesting a fortress mentality at their ground. Their balanced and physical style could prove problematic for a Beşiktaş team that leans heavily on possession and high pressing. The most telling numbers might be the expected goals: 1.72 for Fenerbahçe against 1.08 for their visitors. This indicates the hosts are more likely to find the back of the net, supporting the model's 48% probability for a Fenerbahçe win.

With just four recent head-to-head encounters, the sample is small, though split evenly at two wins apiece. This doesn't overshadow current form, which sees Fenerbahçe edging the xPoints at 6.7 to Beşiktaş's 6.0. Even more compelling is the xG difference — 2.4 per match for Fenerbahçe compared to 1.9 for Beşiktaş. Yet, the visitors boast a better xGA at 0.41, hinting at a sturdier defense against attacks.

The likely scorelines — 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (10%), and 2-1 (10%) — reflect a game poised on a knife-edge, where both teams have chances to score. The over 2.5 goals market sits at 53%, nudging towards a cautiously higher-scoring match. But the model's subtle lean towards both teams scoring at 55% suggests a tight affair that doesn't break the bank in goals.

For those scanning the odds, the draw at 3.7 with Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet holds a 2% edge over the model’s rating. While it's not a glaring mispricing, the value is there for those inclined to back a stalemate, aligning with the balanced probabilities on offer.

Fenerbahçe

Form WDLWW

League ranking xG #2xGA #4xT #3xP/match #1Points #4

Key players

Anderson Souza ConceiçãoFxG 0.69 · xT -0.08
Mason Will John GreenwoodFxG 0.82 · xT 0.12
Vedat MuriqiFxG 0.66 · xT 0.00

Besiktas JK

Form LDWLW

League ranking xG #3xGA #1xT #2xP/match #2Points #3

Key players

Václav ČernýRWxG 0.24 · xT 0.11
Dušan VlahovićFxG 1.59 · xT 0.11
Orkun KökçüLWxG 0.45 · xT 0.24

Final score

1 – 2

The model missed the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Fenerbahçe 48% · Draw 27% · Besiktas JK 24%

How the bookmaker bet builders went

The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

Matchresultat - FenerbahceBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 5,48fair 6,83-20 %

Miss

Matchresultat - BesiktasBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5

odds 12,19fair 16,96-28 %

Miss

Match prediction: Fenerbahçe – Besiktas JK

Predicted score matrix

Besiktas JK →

Fenerbahçe →

0–06.4%

0–16.3%

0–23.6%

0–31.3%

0–4+0.4%

1–010.1%

1–111.6%

1–26.1%

1–32.2%

1–4+0.8%

2–09.0%

2–19.7%

2–25.3%

2–31.9%

2–4+0.7%

3–05.1%

3–15.5%

3–23.0%

3–31.1%

3–4+0.4%

4+–03.2%

4+–13.5%

4+–21.9%

4+–30.7%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-112%
2.1-010%
3.2-110%
4.2-09%
5.0-06%

Expected goals

1,72–1,08

Both teams to score

55%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,8

116%

224%

322%

416%

5+15%

Under 2,547%

@2.09

Over 2,553%

@1.87

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Fenerbahçe to win48%
Over 1.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Fenerbahçe to win48%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Muhammed Kerem Aktürkoğlu to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score55%
Over 2.5 goals53%
Muhammed Kerem Aktürkoğlu to score22%
Onyinye Wilfred Ndidi to be booked24%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw27% probability@3.95Betfair ExchangeEV+9%reference odds
1 · Fenerbahçe48% probability@2.15PinnacleEV+4%reference odds
2 · Besiktas JK24% probability@4.30Betfair ExchangeEV+3%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Fenerbahçe	X	2 · Besiktas JK
Betfair Exchange	1.79	EV+ 9% 3.95	EV+ 3% 4.30
Betsafe	1.80	EV+ 2% 3.70	4.05
Betsson	1.80	EV+ 2% 3.70	4.05
Nordicbet	1.80	EV+ 2% 3.70	4.05
Pinnacle	EV+ 4% 2.15	3.55	3.45

Odds updated 5 Sept, 10:33

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards under 2.5 goals since 1 September — the odds have shortened from 2.24 to 2.00 (−11%).

1+19 %

54 %44 %

1.81 → 2.15

X-10 %

31 %21 %

3.94 → 3.55

2-13 %

31 %21 %

3.96 → 3.45

Over 2,5+13 %

59 %49 %

1.65 → 1.87

Pinnacle · 13 recorded price levels · 01/09/2026 → 05/09/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Fenerbahçe 2Draw 0Besiktas JK 2

Goals: 4–4 (⌀ 2)

Head-to-head based on Süper Lig data since 2023.

Key facts

Fenerbahce win 72% of their home matches all-time (36 played).

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Fenerbahçe

Besiktas JK

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Fenerbahçe (7–4)

Besiktas JK (7–3)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Fenerbahçe

Besiktas JK

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Fenerbahçe

Besiktas JK

The teams in numbers

Performance	Fenerbahçe	Besiktas JK
Points	6	6
xPoints	6.7	6
xG per match	2.4	1.9
xGA per match	0.82	0.41
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.46	0.36
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.23	0.09

Playing style	Fenerbahçe	Besiktas JK
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.33
Field tilt	0.64	0.77
xT per match	1.5	1.6
xTA per match	1.2	0.53
Won balls, offensive half	27	30
Pressing intensity	0.25	0.18
Pressing efficiency	0.21	0.32
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.28
Entries into the box per match	18	17
Entries into the box against	8	7
Pass completion %	0.84	0.81
Pass completion % under pressure	0.79	0.76
Passes per match	454	450
Passes against per match	370	265
Switches of play per match	30.8	39.3
Long balls per match	31	45

Set pieces	Fenerbahçe	Besiktas JK
xG from free kicks	0.45	0
Corners per match	8.3	8
Corners against per match	1.7	5.2
xG per corner	0.02	0.03
xGA per corner against	0.01	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.62	0.48
First touch, defensive corners %	0.4	0.8

Other	Fenerbahçe	Besiktas JK
Throw-in control	0.84	0.73

The goalkeepers	Ederson Santana de Moraes (Fenerbahçe)	Alexander Nübel (Besiktas JK)
Saves	6	4
Save %	75%	57%
xG prevented	59%	44%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Fenerbahçe

Fixtures, form & tips

Besiktas JK

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Fenerbahçe vs Besiktas JK according to our model?

The model gives Fenerbahçe a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Fenerbahçe 48%, draw 27%, Besiktas JK 24%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.