Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia Prediction: Home win 64% (22 Oct 2026)

Conference League22 October 202611°8,3 mm15 km/h

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NordsjællandPossession control

CSKA SofiaLow block & direct

The model's lean: 1 · Nordsjælland (64%)Best value by the model: 2 · CSKA Sofia @ 6.64 (+10 %)

1 · Nordsjælland 64%X 19%17% CSKA Sofia · 2

64%

19%

17%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia (Conference League, Thursday, 22 October 2026): Nordsjælland win 64%, draw 19%, CSKA Sofia win 17%. Expected goals (xG): Nordsjælland 2.29, CSKA Sofia 0.87. Most likely score: 2-0 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 53%. Double chance: Nordsjælland or draw 83%, CSKA Sofia or draw 36%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 14 October 2026.

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Analysis: Nordsjælland – CSKA Sofia

Sofia Andersson · 20 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

A 64% probability for the hosts to secure a win sets a clear expectation for Nordsjælland against CSKA Sofia. The model favors a 2-0 victory (11%), reinforced by the expected goals numbers: Nordsjælland at 2.29 compared to Sofia’s 0.87. The hosts' recent unbeaten run in six league matches underscores their solid form. Although the visitors show some defensive resilience with a slightly better xGA per match (1.2), their offensive output remains a concern.

Nordsjælland's possession-focused style contrasts sharply with Sofia's defensive, direct approach. The hosts' ability to control the game should minimize the visitors' chances of scoring, though at 53%, the possibility of both teams finding the net cannot be entirely discounted. The rain, measured at 5.8 mm, is expected to slightly suppress the goal count, already considered in the 61% probability for over 2.5 goals.

For the value-seekers, despite the long odds of CSKA Sofia pulling off an upset at 6.3 with both Betsafe and Nordicbet, a small edge of 5% makes it a tempting gamble for those eyeing a potential payout. However, this comes with high risk given the visitors' form and away challenges.

Nordsjælland

Form WWWWD

League ranking xG #9xGA #36xT #25xP/match #23Points #3

Key players

Peter AnkersenCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.20
Justin JanssenCMxG 0.02 · xT 0.11
Caleb YirenkyiCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06

CSKA Sofia

Form L

League ranking xG #55xGA #25xT #78xP/match #34Points #47

Key players

Andre HoffmannCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.51
Lasha DvaliCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.32
Diego Daniel Medina RomanRBxG 0.00 · xT 0.22

Match prediction: Nordsjælland – CSKA Sofia

Predicted score matrix

CSKA Sofia →

Nordsjælland →

0–04.5%

0–13.4%

0–21.6%

0–30.5%

0–4+0.1%

1–09.4%

1–18.7%

1–23.7%

1–31.1%

1–4+0.3%

2–011.1%

2–19.7%

2–24.2%

2–31.2%

2–4+0.3%

3–08.5%

3–17.4%

3–23.2%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.2%

4+–08.3%

4+–17.3%

4+–23.2%

4+–30.9%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.2-011%
2.2-110%
3.1-09%
4.1-19%
5.3-08%

Expected goals

2,29–0,87

Both teams to score

53%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,2

113%

221%

322%

418%

5+21%

Under 2,539%

@2.48

Over 2,561%

@1.63

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Nordsjælland to win64%
Over 1.5 goals83%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Nordsjælland to win64%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Nicklas Røjkjær to score26%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score53%
Over 2.5 goals61%
Nicklas Røjkjær to score26%
Teodor Valentinov Ivanov to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

2 · CSKA Sofia17% probability@6.64PinnacleEV+10%reference odds
2 · CSKA Sofia17% probability@6.30BetsafeEV+5%reference odds
2 · CSKA Sofia17% probability@6.30NordicbetEV+5%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Nordsjælland	X	2 · CSKA Sofia
Betfair Exchange	1.37	4.40	5.90
Betsafe	1.40	4.80	EV+ 5% 6.30
Nordicbet	1.40	4.80	EV+ 5% 6.30
Pinnacle	1.44	4.92	EV+ 10% 6.64

Odds updated 22 Oct, 08:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards a Nordsjælland win since 18 October — the odds have shortened from 1.50 to 1.44 (−4%).

1-4 %

70 %60 %

1.50 → 1.44

X+11 %

25 %15 %

4.44 → 4.92

2+14 %

20 %10 %

5.80 → 6.64

Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 18/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

FC Nordsjaelland are unbeaten in their last 6 league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Nordsjælland

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Nordsjælland (18–4)

CSKA Sofia (1–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Nordsjælland

CSKA Sofia

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Nordsjælland

CSKA Sofia

The teams in numbers

Performance	Nordsjælland	CSKA Sofia
Points	16	1
xPoints	11.3	2.8
xG per match	2.3	0.9
xGA per match	1.5	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.61	0.09
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.25	0.39

Playing style	Nordsjælland	CSKA Sofia
Build-up efficiency	0.34	0.26
Field tilt	0.69	0.43
xT per match	1.2	0.08
xTA per match	0.76	0.14
Won balls, offensive half	22	38
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.27
Pressing efficiency	0.3	0.2
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.25	0.24
Entries into the box per match	18	17
Entries into the box against	10	16
Pass completion %	0.82	0.76
Pass completion % under pressure	0.77	0.74
Passes per match	519	351
Passes against per match	328	517
Switches of play per match	27.9	42.1
Long balls per match	35	44

Set pieces	Nordsjælland	CSKA Sofia
xG from free kicks	0	0.03
Corners per match	6.1	4.5
Corners against per match	4	6.3
xG per corner	0.01	0.01
xGA per corner against	0.07	0
First touch, offensive corners %	0.57	0.2
First touch, defensive corners %	0.67	0.79

Other	Nordsjælland	CSKA Sofia
Throw-in control	0.7	0.77

The goalkeepers	Andreas Hansen (Nordsjælland)	Fedor Lapoukhov (CSKA Sofia)
Saves	25	3
Save %	86%	60%
xG prevented	63%	62%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Nordsjælland

Fixtures, form & tips

CSKA Sofia

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia according to our model?

The model gives Nordsjælland a 64% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Nordsjælland 64%, draw 19%, CSKA Sofia 17%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 2-0 at 11% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 61% and under at 39%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 53% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia?

The model expects 2.29 goals (xG) for Nordsjælland and 0.87 for CSKA Sofia, 3.17 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Nordsjælland or draw (1X) 83%, CSKA Sofia or draw (X2) 36% and no draw (12) 81%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.