Braga vs Gent Prediction: Home win 53% (22 Oct 2026)

Conference League22 October 202611°1,6 mm15 km/h

Läs på svenska

BragaPossession & high press

GentBalanced & physical

The model's lean: 1 · Braga (53%)Best value by the model: X · Draw @ 3.85 (+2 %)

1 · Braga 53%X 27%21% Gent · 2

53%

27%

21%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Braga vs Gent (Conference League, Thursday, 22 October 2026): Braga win 53%, draw 27%, Gent win 21%. Expected goals (xG): Braga 1.50, Gent 0.93. Most likely score: 1-0 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 47%. Double chance: Braga or draw 79%, Gent or draw 47%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 14 October 2026.

Bet on this match

NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet

BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe

LeoVegas100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningenClaim the bonus at LeoVegas

18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links

Analysis: Braga – Gent

Sofia Andersson · 20 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

SC Braga stand at a 53% chance to win against KAA Gent, a significant edge reflected in the most likely scorelines of 1-0 and 2-0. Despite trailing by two points in the group standings, the hosts have a stronger xPoints tally of 3.4 compared to the visitors' 2.8, hinting at a more consistent underlying performance. The expected goals also lean towards the home side at 1.50 versus Gent's 0.93, emphasizing Braga's potential to control the game.

While Gent arrives on the back of three consecutive victories, their xG of 1.4 per match is marginally better than Braga’s 1.3. However, it's their defensive solidity, allowing just 0.87 xGA per match, that might pose a challenge to Braga's high-pressing approach. Gent’s recent form is noteworthy, but with only a small sample size of head-to-head meetings, current form and expected goals provide a clearer picture.

With a 44% likelihood for over 2.5 goals, a low-scoring contest seems probable. The sharpest angle lies in the value bet for the away win at odds 4.9 with Betsafe and Nordicbet. Despite the model confirming a 21% chance — no edge here — it is a peculiar disparity worth noting for those seeking variance. Expect a tight affair, likely leaning 1-0 Braga.

Braga

Form WDL

League ranking xG #37xGA #23xT #61xP/match #46Points #23

Key players

Vitor CarvalhoCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.06
Joao MoutinhoCDMxG 0.07 · xT 0.06
Gustaf LagerbielkeCBxG 0.05 · xT 0.08

Gent

Form LLWWW

League ranking xG #30xGA #10xT #23xP/match #35Points #18

Key players

Mathias DelorgeCDMxG 0.03 · xT 0.18
Tiago AraujoLWBxG 0.12 · xT 0.33
Christian BurgessCBxG 0.17 · xT 0.09

Match prediction: Braga – Gent

Predicted score matrix

Gent →

Braga →

0–09.2%

0–17.8%

0–23.8%

0–31.2%

0–4+0.3%

1–012.8%

1–112.7%

1–25.7%

1–31.8%

1–4+0.5%

2–09.9%

2–19.2%

2–24.3%

2–31.3%

2–4+0.4%

3–04.9%

3–14.6%

3–22.1%

3–30.7%

3–4+0.2%

4+–02.6%

4+–12.4%

4+–21.1%

4+–30.3%

4+–4+0.1%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-013%
2.1-113%
3.2-010%
4.2-19%
5.0-09%

Expected goals

1,50–0,93

Both teams to score

47%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,4

09%

121%

226%

321%

413%

5+10%

Under 2,556%

@1.70

Over 2,544%

@2.18

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Braga to win53%
Under 3.5 goals77%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Braga to win53%
Under 2.5 goals56%
Jovan Milošević to score29%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score47%
Over 2.5 goals44%
Jovan Milošević to score29%
Christian Albert Elliot Burgess to be booked20%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

X · Draw27% probability@3.85Betfair ExchangeEV+2%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Braga	X	2 · Gent
Betfair Exchange	1.76	EV+ 2% 3.85	4.60
Betsafe	1.80	3.45	4.10
LeoVegas	1.88	3.45	3.95
Nordicbet	1.80	3.45	4.10
Pinnacle	1.85	3.64	4.21

Odds updated 22 Oct, 08:36

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Gent win since 20 October — the odds have shortened from 5.38 to 4.21 (−22%).

1+11 %

58 %48 %

1.67 → 1.85

X+1 %

32 %22 %

3.61 → 3.64

2-22 %

25 %15 %

5.38 → 4.21

Pinnacle · 10 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

KAA Gent come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Braga

Gent

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Braga (2–3)

Gent (4–2)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Braga

Gent

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Braga

Gent

The teams in numbers

Performance	Braga	Gent
Points	4	6
xPoints	3.4	2.8
xG per match	1.3	1.4
xGA per match	1.2	0.87
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.04	0.06
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.07	0.04

Playing style	Braga	Gent
Build-up efficiency	0.29	0.3
Field tilt	0.74	0.57
xT per match	0.56	1.2
xTA per match	0.49	0.77
Won balls, offensive half	29	20
Pressing intensity	0.21	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.27	0.27
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.2	0.24
Entries into the box per match	11	16
Entries into the box against	7	9
Pass completion %	0.82	0.84
Pass completion % under pressure	0.79	0.75
Passes per match	521	499
Passes against per match	375	413
Switches of play per match	16.5	56.2
Long balls per match	16	48

Set pieces	Braga	Gent
xG from free kicks	0.07	0.03
Corners per match	4.5	8.8
Corners against per match	3.1	4.2
xG per corner	0.03	0.04
xGA per corner against	0.06	0.04
First touch, offensive corners %	0.62	0.59
First touch, defensive corners %	0.56	0.38

Other	Braga	Gent
Throw-in control	0.71	0.81

The goalkeepers	Bernardo Caltabiano Parise Fontes (Braga)	Davy Roef (Gent)
Saves	4	3
Save %	57%	60%
xG prevented	51%	63%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Braga

Fixtures, form & tips

Gent

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Braga vs Gent according to our model?

The model gives Braga a 53% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Braga 53%, draw 27%, Gent 21%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-0 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 44% and under at 56%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 47% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Braga vs Gent?

The model expects 1.50 goals (xG) for Braga and 0.93 for Gent, 2.43 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Braga or draw (1X) 79%, Gent or draw (X2) 47% and no draw (12) 73%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.