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    TrabzonsporTrabzonsporCounter-attacks & crosses
    vs
    HeartsHeartsLow block & direct
    The model's lean: 1 · Trabzonspor (48%)Best value by the model: 2 · Hearts @ 9.70 (+168 %)

    Trabzonspor vs Hearts · Conference League

    1 · Trabzonspor 48%X 25%28% Hearts · 2

    Prediction summary

    BetBuilders AI model prediction for Trabzonspor vs Hearts (Conference League, Thursday, 22 October 2026): Trabzonspor win 48%, draw 25%, Hearts win 28%. Expected goals (xG): Trabzonspor 1.70, Hearts 1.28. Most likely score: 1-1 (11%). Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 59%. Double chance: Trabzonspor or draw 72%, Hearts or draw 52%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 14 October 2026.

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    Analysis: Trabzonspor – Hearts

    Anna Karlsson · · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

    Trabzonspor's ability to strike swiftly on the counter looms large in their Conference League clash against Hearts. The hosts have shown a knack for converting turnovers into tangible opportunities, boasting an xG of 1.4 within eight seconds of regaining possession. This is a stark contrast to Hearts, whose same metric lags significantly at 0.15. If the visitors hope to withstand the storm in Turkey, they'll need to fortify their defensive ranks against Trabzonspor's rapid transitions.

    Yet, the numbers reveal a fascinating tension. Despite Trabzonspor's attacking prowess, their xGA of 2.3 per match indicates vulnerabilities at the back. This defensive fragility could offer Hearts a lifeline, particularly given their own xGA of 1.3, showcasing a tighter defensive ship overall. It's within this defensive resilience that Hearts might find their opportunity, even as underdogs.

    The model gives the Turkish side a 48% chance of victory, a logical lean given their offensive metrics. However, the expected goals suggest a closer affair, with Trabzonspor anticipated to score 1.70 and Hearts 1.28. The probabilities hint at a competitive 1-1 draw as the most likely outcome (11%), but the hosts' 2-1 win (9%) and slim 1-0 victory (8%) aren't far behind.

    For those eyeing the betting landscape, Hearts at odds of 8.3 with Betsafe and Nordicbet present substantial value, given the model's 28% rating. This translates into a staggering 130% edge, a tantalizing proposition for risk-takers. With the over 2.5 goals probability at 57%, the numbers suggest a tilt towards a lively contest, though the underdog Hearts remain a compelling, if risky, bet at those odds.

    TrabzonsporTrabzonspor
    Form DDW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #61xT #2xP/match #11Points #29
    Key players
    • Mustafa EskihellacLBxG 0.06 · xT 0.20
    • Stefan SavicCBxG 0.04 · xT 0.07
    • Chibuike Godfrey NwaiwuCBxG 0.06 · xT 0.07
    • Numbers from Turkish Super League 2026
    HeartsHearts
    Form LDDDD
    League ranking xG #41xGA #30xT #51xP/match #21Points #34
    Key players
    • Jamie MccartLBxG 0.15 · xT 0.13
    • Blair Thomas SpittalCAMxG 0.02 · xT 0.07
    • Oisin McenteeCBxG 0.22 · xT 0.07

    Match prediction: Trabzonspor – Hearts

    Predicted score matrix

    Hearts →
    Trabzonspor →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–05.4%
    0–16.1%
    0–24.1%
    0–31.8%
    0–4+0.7%
    1
    1–08.3%
    1–111.4%
    1–27.1%
    1–33.0%
    1–4+1.3%
    2
    2–07.3%
    2–19.4%
    2–26.0%
    2–32.6%
    2–4+1.1%
    3
    3–04.2%
    3–15.3%
    3–23.4%
    3–31.5%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–02.6%
    4+–13.3%
    4+–22.1%
    4+–30.9%
    4+–4+0.4%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-08%
    4. 4.2-07%
    5. 5.1-27%
    Expected goals
    1,70–1,28
    Both teams to score
    59%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,0
    Under 2,543%
    @2.85EV+2%
    Over 2,557%
    @1.62

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Trabzonspor to win48%
    • Over 1.5 goals80%

    Combined probability

    39%

    Fair odds

    2.58

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Trabzonspor to win48%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Ebere Paul Onuachu to score27%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score59%
    • Over 2.5 goals57%
    • Ebere Paul Onuachu to score27%
    • Laurent Mendy to be booked24%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 2 · Hearts28% probability@9.70BetsafeEV+168%reference odds
    • 2 · Hearts28% probability@9.70NordicbetEV+168%reference odds
    • 2 · Hearts28% probability@8.50LeoVegasEV+135%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · TrabzonsporX2 · Hearts
    Betfair Exchange1.41
    EV+ 21%
    4.90
    EV+ 105%
    7.40
    Betsafe1.23
    EV+ 41%
    5.70
    EV+ 168%
    9.70
    LeoVegas1.29
    EV+ 42%
    5.75
    EV+ 135%
    8.50
    Nordicbet1.23
    EV+ 41%
    5.70
    EV+ 168%
    9.70
    Paddy Power1.36
    EV+ 11%
    4.50
    EV+ 66%
    6.00
    Pinnacle1.29
    EV+ 56%
    6.32
    EV+ 131%
    8.36

    Odds updated 22 Oct, 08:36

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards a Trabzonspor win since 20 October — the odds have shortened from 1.38 to 1.29 (−6%).

    1-6 %
    76 %66 %

    1.38 → 1.29

    X+21 %
    21 %11 %

    5.24 → 6.32

    2+25 %
    18 %8 %

    6.70 → 8.36

    Pinnacle · 15 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

    Statistics

    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Hearts
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Trabzonspor (4–2)
    Hearts (5–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Trabzonspor
    Samet Akaydin: 56 passningar, xT 0.41AkaydinCenk Özkacar: 51 passningar, xT 0.04ÖzkacarWagner Fabrício Cardoso de Pina: 47 passningar, xT 0.39PinaMelih Kabasakal: 43 passningar, xT 0KabasakalBenjamin Bouchouari: 39 passningar, xT 0.16BouchouariBatista Mendy: 21 passningar, xT 0.04MendyAndré Onana Onana: 21 passningar, xT 0OnanaMohamed Salah Hamed Mahrous Ghaly: 21 passningar, xT 0.13GhalyFábio Henrique Tavares: 21 passningar, xT 0.01TavaresOzan Tufan: 16 passningar, xT 0.05TufanDoğuhan Aral Şimşir: 14 passningar, xT -0.03Şimşir
    Hearts
    Jamie Mccart: 131 passningar, xT 0.44MccartOisin Mcentee: 106 passningar, xT 0.2McenteeJordi Altena: 77 passningar, xT 0.05AltenaStuart Findlay: 69 passningar, xT -0.02FindlayBlair Thomas Spittal: 67 passningar, xT 0.13SpittalBeau Reus: 60 passningar, xT 0.07ReusChristian Dahle Borchgrevink: 58 passningar, xT 0.22BorchgrevinkJoshua McPake: 52 passningar, xT 0.23McPakeClaudio Rafael Soares Braga: 50 passningar, xT 0BragaCalvin Miller: 48 passningar, xT 0.03MillerHarry Milne: 38 passningar, xT 0.09Milne
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Trabzonspor
    Samet Akaydin: 56 passningar, xT 0.41AkaydinCenk Özkacar: 51 passningar, xT 0.04ÖzkacarWagner Fabrício Cardoso de Pina: 47 passningar, xT 0.39PinaMelih Kabasakal: 43 passningar, xT 0KabasakalBenjamin Bouchouari: 39 passningar, xT 0.16BouchouariBatista Mendy: 21 passningar, xT 0.04MendyAndré Onana Onana: 21 passningar, xT 0OnanaMohamed Salah Hamed Mahrous Ghaly: 21 passningar, xT 0.13GhalyFábio Henrique Tavares: 21 passningar, xT 0.01TavaresOzan Tufan: 16 passningar, xT 0.05TufanDoğuhan Aral Şimşir: 14 passningar, xT -0.03Şimşir
    Hearts
    Jamie Mccart: 131 passningar, xT 0.44MccartOisin Mcentee: 106 passningar, xT 0.2McenteeJordi Altena: 77 passningar, xT 0.05AltenaStuart Findlay: 69 passningar, xT -0.02FindlayBlair Thomas Spittal: 67 passningar, xT 0.13SpittalBeau Reus: 60 passningar, xT 0.07ReusChristian Dahle Borchgrevink: 58 passningar, xT 0.22BorchgrevinkJoshua McPake: 52 passningar, xT 0.23McPakeClaudio Rafael Soares Braga: 50 passningar, xT 0BragaCalvin Miller: 48 passningar, xT 0.03MillerHarry Milne: 38 passningar, xT 0.09Milne

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceTrabzonsporHearts
    Points33
    xPoints1.84.9
    xG per match3.81.2
    xGA per match2.31.3
    xG within 8s of winning the ball1.40.15
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.570.09
    Playing styleTrabzonsporHearts
    Build-up efficiency0.320.33
    Field tilt0.610.27
    xT per match2.30.71
    xTA per match1.31.4
    Won balls, offensive half1831
    Pressing intensity0.220.25
    Pressing efficiency0.270.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.190.23
    Entries into the box per match1911
    Entries into the box against1416
    Pass completion %0.810.73
    Pass completion % under pressure0.760.65
    Passes per match392281
    Passes against per match308513
    Switches of play per match42.838.2
    Long balls per match5043
    Set piecesTrabzonsporHearts
    xG from free kicks0.340.2
    Corners per match64.9
    Corners against per match87.7
    xG per corner0.020.11
    xGA per corner against0.030.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.330.31
    First touch, defensive corners %0.750.68
    OtherTrabzonsporHearts
    Throw-in control0.830.72
    The goalkeepersAndré Onana Onana (Trabzonspor)Beau Reus (Hearts)
    Saves611
    Save %86%69%
    xG prevented89%57%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Trabzonspor
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Hearts
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Trabzonspor vs Hearts according to our model?

    The model gives Trabzonspor a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Trabzonspor 48%, draw 25%, Hearts 28%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 57% and under at 43%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 59% according to the model.

    How many goals are expected in Trabzonspor vs Hearts?

    The model expects 1.70 goals (xG) for Trabzonspor and 1.28 for Hearts, 2.98 in total.

    What does the model say about double chance?

    Trabzonspor or draw (1X) 72%, Hearts or draw (X2) 52% and no draw (12) 75%.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.