Monaco vs Freiburg Prediction: Away win 39% (22 Oct 2026)

Conference League22 October 202619°11 km/h

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MonacoBalanced & physical

FreiburgPossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Freiburg (39%)Best value by the model: Under 1,5 @ 5.10 (+39 %)

1 · Monaco 33%X 28%39% Freiburg · 2

33%

28%

39%

Prediction summary

BetBuilders AI model prediction for Monaco vs Freiburg (Conference League, Thursday, 22 October 2026): Monaco win 33%, draw 28%, Freiburg win 39%. Expected goals (xG): Monaco 1.24, Freiburg 1.31. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. Double chance: Monaco or draw 61%, Freiburg or draw 67%. Prediction updated Wednesday, 14 October 2026.

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Analysis: Monaco – Freiburg

Sofia Andersson · 20 October 2026 · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

Freiburg’s xG per match stands at an impressive 3.1, significantly outpacing Monaco's 1.6. This offensive dynamism gives the visitors a clear edge in expected goals, further supported by their superior xPoints of 6.8 compared to the hosts' 5.0. Despite both teams arriving with three straight wins, the underlying numbers suggest Freiburg’s form is not only stronger but built on a more sustainable base.

The model sees a 39% probability for Freiburg to win, outpacing the home side's 33%. With the visitors matching Monaco’s recent winning streak but with more robust statistical backing, a narrow away victory seems the most plausible outcome. The most likely scorelines reflect this, with 0-1 (10%) holding a higher probability than 1-0 (9%). Given these numbers, the match is poised to be tightly contested, with the over 2.5 goals chance at just 47% and both teams to score marginally higher at 52%.

For bettors, value emerges in backing an away win at odds 2.95 with Betsafe, providing a 14% edge over the model's expectations. Additionally, for those seeking higher risk, the under 0.5 option at odds 15.0 with Betsafe and Nordicbet offers a 22% edge, though it's a more speculative play.

Monaco

Form WWW

League ranking xG #26xGA #19xT #49xP/match #17Points #11

Key players

Lamine CamaraCMxG 0.03 · xT -0.04
Eric DierCBxG 0.29 · xT 0.02
Paris BrunnerFxG 0.57 · xT 0.18

Freiburg

Form WWW

League ranking xG #3xGA #5xT #9xP/match #3Points #10

Key players

Maximilian EggesteinCDMxG 0.18 · xT 0.22
Max RosenfelderCBxG 0.00 · xT 0.09
Matthias GinterCBxG 0.50 · xT 0.19

Match prediction: Monaco – Freiburg

Predicted score matrix

Freiburg →

Monaco →

0–08.1%

0–19.8%

0–26.7%

0–32.9%

0–4+1.3%

1–09.3%

1–113.0%

1–28.3%

1–33.6%

1–4+1.6%

2–06.0%

2–17.9%

2–25.2%

2–32.3%

2–4+1.0%

3–02.5%

3–13.3%

3–22.1%

3–30.9%

3–4+0.4%

4+–01.0%

4+–11.3%

4+–20.9%

4+–30.4%

4+–4+0.2%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-113%
2.0-110%
3.1-09%
4.1-28%
5.0-08%

Expected goals

1,24–1,31

Both teams to score

52%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 2,6

08%

119%

226%

322%

414%

5+12%

Under 2,553%

@2.10EV+5%

Over 2,547%

@1.75

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Freiburg or draw (X2)65%
Under 3.5 goals75%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Freiburg or draw (X2)65%
Under 2.5 goals53%
Maximilian Eggestein to score22%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score52%
Over 2.5 goals47%
Anssumane Fati Vieira to score23%
Matthias Lukas Ginter to be booked21%

Odds & value

The model's value spots

Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

Under 1.527% probability@5.10Betfair ExchangeEV+39%reference odds
2 · Freiburg39% probability@3.20PinnacleEV+23%reference odds
2 · Freiburg39% probability@3.05BetsafeEV+18%reference odds

Bookmaker	1 · Monaco	X	2 · Freiburg
Betfair Exchange	1.96	EV+ 8% 3.80	EV+ 14% 2.96
Betsafe	2.15	3.40	EV+ 18% 3.05
LeoVegas	2.15	3.50	EV+ 18% 3.05
Nordicbet	2.15	3.40	EV+ 18% 3.05
Pinnacle	2.19	EV+ 2% 3.58	EV+ 23% 3.20

Odds updated 22 Oct, 08:36

Odds movement

1-2 %

45 %40 %

2.24 → 2.19

X0 %

29 %24 %

3.57 → 3.58

2+7 %

33 %28 %

3.00 → 3.20

Over 2,5+2 %

57 %52 %

1.71 → 1.75

Pinnacle · 7 recorded price levels · 20/10/2026 → 22/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

Statistics

Key facts

Monaco come into this round on 3 straight wins.
Freiburg come into this round on 3 straight wins.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Monaco

Freiburg

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Monaco (9–4)

Freiburg (10–4)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Monaco

Freiburg

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Monaco

Freiburg

The teams in numbers

Performance	Monaco	Freiburg
Points	9	9
xPoints	5	6.8
xG per match	1.6	3.1
xGA per match	1.1	0.56
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.45	0.35
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.21	0.06

Playing style	Monaco	Freiburg
Build-up efficiency	0.3	0.31
Field tilt	0.59	0.81
xT per match	0.8	1.7
xTA per match	0.96	0.28
Won balls, offensive half	25	33
Pressing intensity	0.23	0.21
Pressing efficiency	0.29	0.3
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.22	0.29
Entries into the box per match	10	21
Entries into the box against	12	4
Pass completion %	0.84	0.86
Pass completion % under pressure	0.8	0.8
Passes per match	479	550
Passes against per match	348	288
Switches of play per match	19.3	31.5
Long balls per match	24	29

Set pieces	Monaco	Freiburg
xG from free kicks	0.08	0.13
Corners per match	3.5	6.7
Corners against per match	7.2	1.3
xG per corner	0.02	0.05
xGA per corner against	0.03	0.01
First touch, offensive corners %	0.4	0.45
First touch, defensive corners %	0.52	0.5

Other	Monaco	Freiburg
Throw-in control	0.58	0.73

The goalkeepers	Lukas Hradecky (Monaco)	Jordy Makengo (Freiburg)
Saves	12	2
Save %	75%	100%
xG prevented	58%	100%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Monaco

Fixtures, form & tips

Freiburg

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Monaco vs Freiburg according to our model?

The model gives Freiburg a 39% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Monaco 33%, draw 28%, Freiburg 39%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 47% and under at 53%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 52% according to the model.

How many goals are expected in Monaco vs Freiburg?

The model expects 1.24 goals (xG) for Monaco and 1.31 for Freiburg, 2.56 in total.

What does the model say about double chance?

Monaco or draw (1X) 61%, Freiburg or draw (X2) 67% and no draw (12) 72%.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.