01 · 2 legs
Safe
- Double chance Aston Villa or draw (1X)61%
- Under 3.5 goals71%
Champions League13°25 km/h
Läs på svenska
Aston VillaLow block & directvs
FenerbahçeCounter-attacks & crossesThe model's lean: 1 · Aston Villa (40%)Soft drawBest value by the model: 2 · Fenerbahçe @ 5.25 (+88 %)
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe · Champions League
1 · Aston Villa 40%X 24%36% Fenerbahçe · 2
40%
24%
36%
Prediction summary
BetBuilders AI model prediction for Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe (Champions League, Wednesday, 14 October 2026): Aston Villa win 40%, draw 24%, Fenerbahçe win 36%. Expected goals (xG): Aston Villa 1.29, Fenerbahçe 1.41. Most likely score: 1-1 (13%). Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Double chance: Aston Villa or draw 64%, Fenerbahçe or draw 60%. Prediction updated Tuesday, 6 October 2026.
Bet on this match
NordicbetVälkommen in i matchen! Skapa ett konto, gör en insättning och hämta ett gratisspel värt 100 kr plus 50 freespins på Pirots 4.Claim the bonus at Nordicbet
BetsafeHämta ett 100 kr gratisspel + 50 freespins på Pirots 4 när du gör din första insättning hos Betsafe!Claim the bonus at Betsafe
18+ · Gamble responsibly · stodlinjen.se · Affiliate links
Analysis: Aston Villa – Fenerbahçe
Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work
Aston Villa's potent attacking capabilities, boasting an average of 2.6 expected goals per match, will be pivotal as they prepare to face a resilient Fenerbahçe side in the Champions League. Despite Villa's impressive xG, their defensive vulnerabilities are a concern, conceding an average of 1.7 xGA per match. This makes them susceptible to Fenerbahçe's strength in counter-attacks and aerial threats, reflected in their unbeaten streak over the last seven league games.
The match is finely balanced, with the model probabilities giving Villa a slight edge at 40%, but Fenerbahçe is not far behind at 36%. The expected goals for each team are closely matched—1.29 for Villa and 1.41 for Fenerbahçe—which suggests a tight contest. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 at 13% further highlights the possibility of a close game, with potential for either team to snatch a narrow victory.
Despite Fenerbahçe's superior points tally, both real and expected, Villa's attacking prowess cannot be ignored. Yet, it's the visitors' defensive solidity—conceding just 0.69 xGA per match—that could give them the edge. With a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% likelihood of both teams scoring, a 1-1 draw seems plausible, but a 1-2 away win is also in the cards given Fenerbahçe's form.
The sharpest angle here for bettors is the potential value in backing Fenerbahçe at odds of 5.1 with Betsafe or Nordicbet, or 4.7 with LeoVegas. The model rates their chances at 36%, providing a substantial edge of up to 83%. Given the tightly contested nature and the visitors' current form, this represents a solid opportunity for those looking to capitalize on Fenerbahçe's momentum.
Aston VillaForm WWLWW
League ranking xG #8xGA #31xT #20xP/match #8Points #33
Key players
- Nicolas JacksonFxG 0.28 · xT 0.12
- Johan ManzambiCAMxG 0.61 · xT 0.12
- John McGinnRWxG 0.16 · xT 0.07
- Numbers from Premier League 2026
FenerbahçeForm WWDWD
League ranking xG #25xGA #10xT #32xP/match #12Points #1
Key players
- Anderson Souza ConceiçãoFxG 0.81 · xT 0.04
- Milan SkriniarCBxG 0.03 · xT 0.05
- Jayden OosterwoldeLBxG 0.07 · xT 0.08
Match prediction: Aston Villa – Fenerbahçe
Predicted score matrix
Fenerbahçe →
Aston Villa →
0
1
2
3
4+
0
0–07.1%
0–19.1%
0–26.7%
0–33.1%
0–4+1.5%
1
1–08.3%
1–112.6%
1–28.6%
1–34.0%
1–4+1.9%
2
2–05.6%
2–17.9%
2–25.5%
2–32.6%
2–4+1.3%
3
3–02.4%
3–13.4%
3–22.4%
3–31.1%
3–4+0.5%
4+
4+–01.0%
4+–11.4%
4+–21.0%
4+–30.5%
4+–4+0.2%
Most likely scorelines
- 1.1-113%
- 2.0-19%
- 3.1-29%
- 4.1-08%
- 5.2-18%
Expected goals
1,29–1,41
Both teams to score
55%
Over/under goals
Expected goals: 2,707%
117%
225%
322%
415%
5+14%
Under 2,549%
@2.31EV+13%
Over 2,551%
@1.64
Ready-made bet suggestions
More combos & build your own →02 · 3 legs
Balanced
- Double chance Aston Villa or draw (1X)61%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- George Hemmings to score22%
03 · 4 legs
Bold
- Both teams to score55%
- Over 2.5 goals51%
- George Hemmings to score22%
- Nathan Benjamin Aké to be booked21%
Odds & value
The model's value spots
Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).
- 2 · Fenerbahçe36% probability@5.25BetsafeEV+88%reference odds
- 2 · Fenerbahçe36% probability@5.25NordicbetEV+88%reference odds
- 2 · Fenerbahçe36% probability@5.02PinnacleEV+80%reference odds
| Bookmaker | 1 · Aston Villa | X | 2 · Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Betsafe | 1.62 | 4.05 | EV+ 88% 5.25 |
| LeoVegas | 1.68 | 4.00 | EV+ 68% 4.70 |
| Nordicbet | 1.62 | 4.05 | EV+ 88% 5.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.65 | EV+ 3% 4.26 | EV+ 80% 5.02 |
Odds updated 12 Oct, 18:36
Odds movement
10 %
61 %56 %
1.65 → 1.65
X0 %
25 %20 %
4.24 → 4.26
2+1 %
22 %17 %
4.98 → 5.02
Over 2,50 %
61 %56 %
1.64 → 1.64
Pinnacle · 2 recorded price levels · 12/10/2026 → 12/10/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points
Statistics
Key facts
- Fenerbahce are unbeaten in their last 7 league matches.
Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).
Fenerbahçe
Aston Villa (3–2)
Fenerbahçe (9–4)
Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.
Aston Villa
Fenerbahçe
The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.
Aston Villa
Fenerbahçe
The teams in numbers
| Performance | Aston Villa | Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 3 | 15 |
| xPoints | 2.3 | 13.6 |
| xG per match | 2.6 | 1.6 |
| xGA per match | 1.7 | 0.69 |
| xG within 8s of winning the ball | 0.48 | 0.15 |
| xGA within 8s of losing the ball | 0.12 | 0.08 |
| Playing style | Aston Villa | Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|
| Build-up efficiency | 0.3 | 0.32 |
| Field tilt | 0.29 | 0.55 |
| xT per match | 1.2 | 0.99 |
| xTA per match | 1.9 | 0.81 |
| Won balls, offensive half | 19 | 24 |
| Pressing intensity | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Pressing efficiency | 0.24 | 0.28 |
| Pressing efficiency, offensive half | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| Entries into the box per match | 10 | 11 |
| Entries into the box against | 17 | 9 |
| Pass completion % | 0.75 | 0.81 |
| Pass completion % under pressure | 0.74 | 0.77 |
| Passes per match | 288 | 438 |
| Passes against per match | 572 | 335 |
| Switches of play per match | 13.6 | 26.7 |
| Long balls per match | 23 | 33 |
| Set pieces | Aston Villa | Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|
| xG from free kicks | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| Corners per match | 5.2 | 5.3 |
| Corners against per match | 4.2 | 4.2 |
| xG per corner | 0.01 | 0.05 |
| xGA per corner against | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| First touch, offensive corners % | 0.8 | 0.44 |
| First touch, defensive corners % | 0.5 | 0.68 |
| Other | Aston Villa | Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|
| Throw-in control | 0.71 | 0.69 |
| The goalkeepers | Zion Suzuki (Aston Villa) | Ederson Santana de Moraes (Fenerbahçe) |
|---|---|---|
| Saves | 5 | 11 |
| Save % | 71% | 79% |
| xG prevented | 20% | 66% |
| Claims | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
Teams & more matches this round
- Arsenal – Lille13 October 2026
- Inter – Club Brugge13 October 2026
- Lens – Sporting CP13 October 2026
- Viking – Bayern München13 October 2026
- Galatasaray – FC Barcelona13 October 2026
- Atlético de Madrid – Manchester United13 October 2026
- RB Leipzig – PSV Eindhoven13 October 2026
- Sabah – Slavia Praha13 October 2026
- Villarreal – Napoli13 October 2026
Frequently asked questions
Who wins Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe according to our model?
The model gives Aston Villa a 40% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Aston Villa 40%, draw 24%, Fenerbahçe 36%.
What is the most likely scoreline?
The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 13% probability.
Over or under 2.5 goals?
The model rates over 2.5 goals at 51% and under at 49%.
Will both teams score?
The probability of both teams scoring is 55% according to the model.
How many goals are expected in Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
The model expects 1.29 goals (xG) for Aston Villa and 1.41 for Fenerbahçe, 2.70 in total.
What does the model say about double chance?
Aston Villa or draw (1X) 64%, Fenerbahçe or draw (X2) 60% and no draw (12) 76%.
Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?
The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.
More matches in the league
100 % upp till 600 kr på sport vid första insättningen
Min. insättning 100 kr. Omsättning 6× inom 60 dagar, odds från 1,80
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos ComeOn — se aktuella villkor på ComeOns sida.
Se ComeOns villkor
Hämta bonus
Välkomsterbjudande på sport hos Hajper — se aktuella villkor på Hajpers sida.
Se Hajpers villkor
Hämta bonusPredictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.