Eerste Divisie20°9,0 mm22 km/h

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    Jong AZJong AZPossession & high press
    1–2
    MVV MaastrichtMVV MaastrichtPossession control
    The model's lean: 1 · Jong AZ (48%)

    Jong AZ – MVV Maastricht · Eerste Divisie

    1 · Jong AZ 48%X 26%27% MVV Maastricht · 2

    Analysis: Jong AZ – MVV Maastricht

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    The odds “at odds of 1.80 from Bet365” are not supported by the given facts and appear fabricated. Removing that unsupported detail:

    With a 48% win probability, Jong AZ enters the clash as the slight favorite despite MVV Maastricht's impressive run of three consecutive victories. The model suggests a 2-1 scoreline for the hosts at a 10% probability, aligning with a high expected goals count of 2.03 for Jong AZ. However, the visitors' recent form cannot be ignored, as they hold an edge in both points and xPoints, indicating a more efficient conversion of chances.

    Both teams prioritize possession, but Jong AZ's high press might be blunted by predicted rainfall of 10.8 mm, potentially slowing the game’s tempo and suppressing goal events. This factor is already accounted for in the model, which still gives a 65% chance for over 2.5 goals, marked by a robust 64% for both teams to find the net. Head-to-head data since 2023 shows a slight advantage for the hosts, albeit from a small sample size of four matches, which carries less weight compared to current form metrics.

    The sharpest angle here is the over 2.5 goals market, supported by a strong model probability. Despite weather concerns, the attacking profiles and expected goals suggest value in this play. A tight 2-1 win for Jong AZ seems the most plausible outcome.

    Jong AZJong AZ
    Form LWLWL
    League ranking xG #10xGA #11xT #15xP/match #8Points #13
    Key players
    • Ayoub OufkirFxG 0.46 · xT 0.25
    • Julian OeripCAMxG 0.26 · xT 0.06
    • Yoël van den BanFxG 0.29 · xT -0.06
    MVV MaastrichtMVV Maastricht
    Form DLWWW
    League ranking xG #8xGA #5xT #12xP/match #6Points #2
    Key players
    • Delano AsanteRWxG 0.05 · xT 0.12
    • Olivier DumontRWxG 0.17 · xT 0.16
    • Stan Van DesselLWxG 0.28 · xT 0.08
    Final score
    1 – 2
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: Jong AZ 48% · Draw 26% · MVV Maastricht 27%

    Match prediction: Jong AZ – MVV Maastricht

    Predicted score matrix

    MVV Maastricht →
    Jong AZ →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–03.8%
    0–14.4%
    0–23.0%
    0–31.3%
    0–4+0.6%
    1
    1–07.0%
    1–19.7%
    1–26.2%
    1–32.7%
    1–4+1.2%
    2
    2–07.3%
    2–19.6%
    2–26.2%
    2–32.7%
    2–4+1.2%
    3
    3–05.0%
    3–16.5%
    3–24.2%
    3–31.8%
    3–4+0.8%
    4+
    4+–04.0%
    4+–15.2%
    4+–23.4%
    4+–31.5%
    4+–4+0.6%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-110%
    2. 2.2-110%
    3. 3.2-07%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.3-16%
    Expected goals
    2,03–1,30
    Both teams to score
    64%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,3
    Under 2,535%
    –
    Over 2,565%
    –

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Jong AZ to win48%
    • Over 1.5 goals85%

    Combined probability

    47%

    Fair odds

    2.14

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Jong AZ to win48%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Hessel de Wit to score28%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score64%
    • Over 2.5 goals65%
    • Hessel de Wit to score28%
    • Ilano Silva Timas to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    Bookmaker1 · Jong AZX2 · MVV Maastricht
    Betsafe1.753.603.70
    Betsson1.753.603.70
    Nordicbet1.753.603.70

    Odds updated 28 Aug, 07:37

    Odds movement

    10 %
    54 %49 %

    1.75 → 1.75

    X0 %
    27 %22 %

    3.60 → 3.60

    20 %
    27 %22 %

    3.70 → 3.70

    Betsson · 4 recorded price levels · 27/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    Jong AZ 2Draw 1MVV Maastricht 1
    Goals: 7–5 (⌀ 3)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • MVV Maastricht come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    Jong AZ
    MVV Maastricht
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    Jong AZ (6–6)
    MVV Maastricht (6–3)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    Jong AZ
    Jesper Zwart: 115 passningar, xT 0.19ZwartJulian Oerip: 112 passningar, xT 0.12OeripRion Ichihara: 103 passningar, xT 0.5IchiharaBilly van Duijl: 92 passningar, xT 0.35DuijlSam de Grand: 81 passningar, xT 0.27GrandMathijs Menu: 79 passningar, xT 0.18MenuKiyani Zeggen: 63 passningar, xT 0.11ZeggenAyoub Oufkir: 60 passningar, xT 0.27OufkirJulian Sijbrands: 52 passningar, xT 0.05SijbrandsAndrea Natali: 48 passningar, xT 0.05NataliHessel de Wit: 43 passningar, xT 0.29Wit
    MVV Maastricht
    Finn Jesper Dicke: 154 passningar, xT 0.57DickeSil van der Wegen: 136 passningar, xT 0.42WegenMilan Hofland: 127 passningar, xT 0.26HoflandStan Van Dessel: 108 passningar, xT 0.26DesselDelano Asante: 103 passningar, xT 0.33AsanteHugo Wentges: 88 passningar, xT 0.23WentgesOlivier Dumont: 86 passningar, xT 0.16DumontElias Sierra-Cappelletti: 84 passningar, xT -0.02Sierra-CappellettiLennerd Daneels: 65 passningar, xT 0.63DaneelsSven Bouland: 47 passningar, xT 0.06BoulandIlias Breugelmans: 40 passningar, xT 0.31Breugelmans
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    Jong AZ
    Jesper Zwart: 115 passningar, xT 0.19ZwartJulian Oerip: 112 passningar, xT 0.12OeripRion Ichihara: 103 passningar, xT 0.5IchiharaBilly van Duijl: 92 passningar, xT 0.35DuijlSam de Grand: 81 passningar, xT 0.27GrandMathijs Menu: 79 passningar, xT 0.18MenuKiyani Zeggen: 63 passningar, xT 0.11ZeggenAyoub Oufkir: 60 passningar, xT 0.27OufkirJulian Sijbrands: 52 passningar, xT 0.05SijbrandsAndrea Natali: 48 passningar, xT 0.05NataliHessel de Wit: 43 passningar, xT 0.29Wit
    MVV Maastricht
    Finn Jesper Dicke: 154 passningar, xT 0.57DickeSil van der Wegen: 136 passningar, xT 0.42WegenMilan Hofland: 127 passningar, xT 0.26HoflandStan Van Dessel: 108 passningar, xT 0.26DesselDelano Asante: 103 passningar, xT 0.33AsanteHugo Wentges: 88 passningar, xT 0.23WentgesOlivier Dumont: 86 passningar, xT 0.16DumontElias Sierra-Cappelletti: 84 passningar, xT -0.02Sierra-CappellettiLennerd Daneels: 65 passningar, xT 0.63DaneelsSven Bouland: 47 passningar, xT 0.06BoulandIlias Breugelmans: 40 passningar, xT 0.31Breugelmans

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceJong AZMVV Maastricht
    Points39
    xPoints4.55
    xG per match1.61.7
    xGA per match1.31.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.060.29
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.090.07
    Playing styleJong AZMVV Maastricht
    Build-up efficiency0.320.3
    Field tilt0.530.55
    xT per match11.2
    xTA per match1.10.87
    Won balls, offensive half2424
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.290.36
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.20.33
    Entries into the box per match1510
    Entries into the box against1414
    Pass completion %0.770.75
    Pass completion % under pressure0.710.73
    Passes per match376363
    Passes against per match368313
    Switches of play per match2435.6
    Long balls per match4648
    Set piecesJong AZMVV Maastricht
    xG from free kicks00
    Corners per match3.73.3
    Corners against per match4.14.3
    xG per corner0.010.01
    xGA per corner against0.060.06
    First touch, offensive corners %0.450.1
    First touch, defensive corners %0.360.31
    OtherJong AZMVV Maastricht
    Throw-in control0.850.7
    The goalkeepersKiyani Zeggen (Jong AZ)Hugo Wentges (MVV Maastricht)
    Saves45
    Save %57%71%
    xG prevented48%66%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    Jong AZ
    Fixtures, form & tips
    MVV Maastricht
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins Jong AZ vs MVV Maastricht according to our model?

    The model gives Jong AZ a 48% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Jong AZ 48%, draw 26%, MVV Maastricht 27%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 65% and under at 35%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 64% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.