Eerste Divisie19°1,3 mm26 km/h

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    FC EindhovenFC EindhovenPossession control
    1–3
    Heracles AlmeloHeracles AlmeloCounter-attacks & crosses
    The model's lean: 2 · Heracles Almelo (41%)Best value by the model: 1 · FC Eindhoven @ 4.65 (+47 %)

    FC Eindhoven – Heracles Almelo · Eerste Divisie

    1 · FC Eindhoven 32%X 27%41% Heracles Almelo · 2

    Analysis: FC Eindhoven – Heracles Almelo

    Sofia Andersson · · The model's read on the match · How the predictions work

    A clash of styles awaits as FC Eindhoven's possession-oriented play meets Heracles Almelo's counter-attacking strategy. Despite Heracles' edge in form and expected goals metrics, Eindhoven's home advantage presents an intriguing underdog scenario. Model probabilities give Heracles a slight edge with a 41% chance to win, while Eindhoven has a 32% probability. This suggests a close contest, with the most likely scoreline being 1-1 at 12%, followed by a narrow 1-2 victory for the visitors at 9%.

    Heracles arrive on the back of three consecutive victories, with their dynamic counter-attacks translating into an impressive 3.0 xG per match. This suggests a potent threat going forward, particularly against Eindhoven's defense, which concedes an average of 2.1 xGA per match. The visitors' defensive solidity is highlighted by their mere 1.1 xGA per match, suggesting that goals may be hard to come by for the hosts.

    Though the over 2.5 goals probability is 53%, indicating a slight lean towards more goals, the numbers suggest a tighter affair. Eindhoven's expected goals output of 1.1 per match portrays a team that struggles to break down defenses, which could play into Heracles' hands, allowing them to exploit spaces left by Eindhoven's possession attempts.

    The sharpest angle in this matchup lies in the value presented by Eindhoven's odds. With a 32% win probability and odds of 4.4 available at Betsafe, Betsson, and Nordicbet, there's a 39% edge according to the model. While Heracles are the favorites, this value proposition makes a strong case for backing the hosts despite the form and statistical advantages favoring the visitors.

    FC EindhovenFC Eindhoven
    Form LWWLL
    League ranking xG #18xGA #19xT #20xP/match #18Points #16
    Key players
    • Mika de JongeCMxG 0.38 · xT 0.01
    • Tyrese SimonsLWxG 0.03 · xT 0.09
    • Guus BeaumontCMxG 0.08 · xT 0.11
    Heracles AlmeloHeracles Almelo
    Form WWW
    League ranking xG #1xGA #5xT #2xP/match #1Points #3
    Key players
    • Jean-Paul N'djoliLWxG 0.79 · xT 0.14
    • Djevencio Djovairo van der KustCMxG 0.10 · xT 0.06
    • Max HauswirthLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.11
    Final score
    1 – 3
    The model called the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: FC Eindhoven 32% · Draw 27% · Heracles Almelo 41%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - FC EindhovenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 9,70fair 9,94-2 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - Heracles AlmeloBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 3,50fair 9,19-62 %
    Hit

    Match prediction: FC Eindhoven – Heracles Almelo

    Predicted score matrix

    Heracles Almelo →
    FC Eindhoven →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–06.4%
    0–18.3%
    0–26.2%
    0–33.0%
    0–4+1.5%
    1
    1–07.9%
    1–112.2%
    1–28.5%
    1–34.1%
    1–4+2.0%
    2
    2–05.7%
    2–18.2%
    2–25.9%
    2–32.8%
    2–4+1.4%
    3
    3–02.6%
    3–13.8%
    3–22.7%
    3–31.3%
    3–4+0.6%
    4+
    4+–01.2%
    4+–11.8%
    4+–21.3%
    4+–30.6%
    4+–4+0.3%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-112%
    2. 2.1-29%
    3. 3.0-18%
    4. 4.2-18%
    5. 5.1-08%
    Expected goals
    1,38–1,43
    Both teams to score
    57%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 2,8
    Under 2,547%
    @2.92EV+36%
    Over 2,553%
    @1.39

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Heracles Almelo or draw (X2)64%
    • Over 1.5 goals77%

    Combined probability

    50%

    Fair odds

    2.01

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Heracles Almelo or draw (X2)64%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Thomas Bruns to score18%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score57%
    • Over 2.5 goals53%
    • Sven Simons to score23%
    • Xander Blomme to be booked22%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • 1 · FC Eindhoven32% probability@4.65BetsafeEV+47%reference odds
    • 1 · FC Eindhoven32% probability@4.65BetssonEV+47%reference odds
    • 1 · FC Eindhoven32% probability@4.65NordicbetEV+47%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · FC EindhovenX2 · Heracles Almelo
    Betsafe
    EV+ 47%
    4.65
    EV+ 9%
    4.05    		1.60
    Betsson
    EV+ 47%
    4.65
    EV+ 9%
    4.05    		1.62
    Nordicbet
    EV+ 47%
    4.65
    EV+ 9%
    4.05    		1.60

    Odds updated 30 Aug, 09:35

    Odds movement

    Market signal

    The market has moved clearly towards over 2.5 goals since 24 August — the odds have shortened from 1.46 to 1.39 (−5%).

    1+6 %
    23 %18 %

    4.40 → 4.65

    X+5 %
    26 %21 %

    3.85 → 4.05

    2-4 %
    59 %54 %

    1.68 → 1.62

    Over 2,5-5 %
    69 %64 %

    1.46 → 1.39

    Betsson · 19 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Key facts

    • Heracles Almelo come into this round on 3 straight wins.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    FC Eindhoven
    Heracles Almelo
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    FC Eindhoven (5–8)
    Heracles Almelo (13–6)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    FC Eindhoven
    Guus Beaumont: 115 passningar, xT 0.22BeaumontJort Borgmans: 102 passningar, xT 0.28BorgmansMika de Jonge: 102 passningar, xT 0.07JongeOwen Renfrum: 100 passningar, xT 0.04RenfrumJunior Poortvliet: 97 passningar, xT 0.31PoortvlietClint Essers: 82 passningar, xT 0.35EssersTyrese Simons: 60 passningar, xT 0.16SimonsXander Blomme: 43 passningar, xT 0.03BlommeAmir Bryson: 43 passningar, xT 0.03BrysonSiegert Baartmans: 42 passningar, xT 0.06BaartmansThijs Muller: 31 passningar, xT 0.14Muller
    Heracles Almelo
    Damon Mirani: 133 passningar, xT 0.28MiraniDavid Vicente Robles: 121 passningar, xT 0.69RoblesDjevencio Djovairo van der Kust: 116 passningar, xT 0.17KustMario Borac: 111 passningar, xT 0.14BoracSem Scheperman: 98 passningar, xT 0.04SchepermanFabian de Keijzer: 84 passningar, xT 0.43KeijzerMax Hauswirth: 82 passningar, xT 0.29HauswirthTristan van Gilst: 69 passningar, xT 0.53GilstChafik Abbas: 53 passningar, xT 0.58AbbasManny Rodriguez Baldera: 43 passningar, xT 0.3BalderaJean-Paul N'djoli: 39 passningar, xT 0.69N'djoli
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    FC Eindhoven
    Guus Beaumont: 115 passningar, xT 0.22BeaumontJort Borgmans: 102 passningar, xT 0.28BorgmansMika de Jonge: 102 passningar, xT 0.07JongeOwen Renfrum: 100 passningar, xT 0.04RenfrumJunior Poortvliet: 97 passningar, xT 0.31PoortvlietClint Essers: 82 passningar, xT 0.35EssersTyrese Simons: 60 passningar, xT 0.16SimonsXander Blomme: 43 passningar, xT 0.03BlommeAmir Bryson: 43 passningar, xT 0.03BrysonSiegert Baartmans: 42 passningar, xT 0.06BaartmansThijs Muller: 31 passningar, xT 0.14Muller
    Heracles Almelo
    Damon Mirani: 133 passningar, xT 0.28MiraniDavid Vicente Robles: 121 passningar, xT 0.69RoblesDjevencio Djovairo van der Kust: 116 passningar, xT 0.17KustMario Borac: 111 passningar, xT 0.14BoracSem Scheperman: 98 passningar, xT 0.04SchepermanFabian de Keijzer: 84 passningar, xT 0.43KeijzerMax Hauswirth: 82 passningar, xT 0.29HauswirthTristan van Gilst: 69 passningar, xT 0.53GilstChafik Abbas: 53 passningar, xT 0.58AbbasManny Rodriguez Baldera: 43 passningar, xT 0.3BalderaJean-Paul N'djoli: 39 passningar, xT 0.69N'djoli

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceFC EindhovenHeracles Almelo
    Points39
    xPoints36.3
    xG per match1.13
    xGA per match2.11.1
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.060.54
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.390.23
    Playing styleFC EindhovenHeracles Almelo
    Build-up efficiency0.30.3
    Field tilt0.40.71
    xT per match0.71.9
    xTA per match1.61.2
    Won balls, offensive half2532
    Pressing intensity0.220.22
    Pressing efficiency0.30.38
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.260.31
    Entries into the box per match915
    Entries into the box against1511
    Pass completion %0.720.74
    Pass completion % under pressure0.630.7
    Passes per match316347
    Passes against per match392252
    Switches of play per match19.422.6
    Long balls per match4041
    Set piecesFC EindhovenHeracles Almelo
    xG from free kicks0.010
    Corners per match3.37.5
    Corners against per match4.34.3
    xG per corner0.070.04
    xGA per corner against0.020.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50.43
    First touch, defensive corners %0.540.46
    OtherFC EindhovenHeracles Almelo
    Throw-in control0.780.85
    The goalkeepersJort Borgmans (FC Eindhoven)Fabian de Keijzer (Heracles Almelo)
    Saves128
    Save %60%57%
    xG prevented24%32%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    FC Eindhoven
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Heracles Almelo
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins FC Eindhoven vs Heracles Almelo according to our model?

    The model gives Heracles Almelo a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: FC Eindhoven 32%, draw 27%, Heracles Almelo 41%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 12% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 53% and under at 47%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 57% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.