Eerste Divisie19°0,4 mm24 km/h

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    VVV-VenloVVV-VenloCounter-attacks & crosses
    4–0
    EmmenEmmenBalanced & physical
    The model's lean: 2 · Emmen (38%)Best value by the model: Under 2,5 @ 2.85 (+15 %)

    VVV-Venlo – Emmen · Eerste Divisie

    1 · VVV-Venlo 34%X 28%38% Emmen · 2

    Analysis: VVV-Venlo – Emmen

    Marcus Johansson · · Analysis from the match model · How the predictions work

    TEXT: Emmen's recent form is compelling, with four consecutive wins suggesting they are the side to back against VVV-Venlo. The model favors Emmen with a 38% chance of victory, tipping them as slight favorites over the hosts' 34%. Both teams have distinct playing styles, with Venlo focused on counterattacks and crosses, while Emmen brings a balanced and physical approach. These dynamics shape the expected flow of the game.

    The expected goals (xG) metrics highlight Emmen's superiority. They average 2 xG per match, doubling Venlo's 0.95. This suggests that Emmen is more capable of creating and converting chances. Defensively, Venlo allows 1.9 expected goals against per match compared to Emmen's much tighter 1.2. The numbers underline Emmen's edge in both attack and defense.

    While the head-to-head record since 2023 is limited to just four matches, it leans slightly in Emmen's favor, with two wins to Venlo's one. However, with such a small sample size, the current form and expected goals data are more telling. The most likely scorelines, such as a 1-1 draw, hint at a competitive match, but Emmen's form suggests they could edge it with a 1-2 victory.

    Despite a 60% chance for over 2.5 goals, there's intriguing value in betting under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.75 with Betsafe, Betsson, or Nordicbet. The model rates it at 40%, providing an 11% edge. It's a contrarian play, but considering Emmen's defensive solidity and Venlo's struggles to create high-quality chances, it could be a profitable angle.

    VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo
    Form LWLWW
    League ranking xG #20xGA #18xT #17xP/match #17Points #10
    Key players
    • Dean ZandbergenFxG 0.26 · xT 0.00
    • Alex Adrianus Antonius SchalkFxG 0.05 · xT -0.02
    • Lars de BlokLWBxG 0.01 · xT 0.20
    EmmenEmmen
    Form DWWWW
    League ranking xG #6xGA #6xT #6xP/match #5Points #2
    Key players
    • Jack Cooper-LoveFxG 0.83 · xT 0.02
    • Michael John BreijFxG 0.15 · xT 0.19
    • Nelson Efosa AmadinRWxG 0.36 · xT -0.01
    Final score
    4 – 0
    The model missed the outcome
    Predicted probabilities: VVV-Venlo 34% · Draw 28% · Emmen 38%

    How the bookmaker bet builders went

    The verdict on the pre-built bet builders for this match, priced against the model’s score matrix before kickoff. Graded on the 90-minute result.

    Matchresultat - VVV VenloBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 5,20fair 7,14-27 %
    Miss
    Matchresultat - EmmenBåda lagen gör mål - JaTotalt antal mål - Över 3.5
    odds 4,96fair 8,68-43 %
    Miss

    Match prediction: VVV-Venlo – Emmen

    Predicted score matrix

    Emmen →
    VVV-Venlo →
    0
    1
    2
    3
    4+
    0
    0–04.9%
    0–16.4%
    0–24.9%
    0–32.4%
    0–4+1.2%
    1
    1–07.1%
    1–111.2%
    1–28.0%
    1–33.9%
    1–4+2.0%
    2
    2–06.0%
    2–18.8%
    2–26.5%
    2–33.2%
    2–4+1.6%
    3
    3–03.2%
    3–14.7%
    3–23.5%
    3–31.7%
    3–4+0.9%
    4+
    4+–01.9%
    4+–12.8%
    4+–22.0%
    4+–31.0%
    4+–4+0.5%
    Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

    Most likely scorelines

    1. 1.1-111%
    2. 2.2-19%
    3. 3.1-28%
    4. 4.1-07%
    5. 5.2-26%
    Expected goals
    1,62–1,47
    Both teams to score
    62%

    Over/under goals

    Expected goals: 3,1
    Under 2,540%
    @2.85EV+15%
    Over 2,560%
    @1.39

    Ready-made bet suggestions

    More combos & build your own →

    01 · 2 legs

    Safe

    • Double chance Emmen or draw (X2)59%
    • Over 1.5 goals82%

    Combined probability

    48%

    Fair odds

    2.09

    Two legs pulling the same way — the probability is computed exactly from the score matrix, not multiplied.

    02 · 3 legs

    Balanced

    • Double chance Emmen or draw (X2)59%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Freddy Quispel to score26%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The whole slip is priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches — the scorer interacts with result and total goals, never naive multiplication.

    03 · 4 legs

    Bold

    • Both teams to score62%
    • Over 2.5 goals60%
    • Freddy Quispel to score26%
    • Pascal Mulder to be booked19%

    Combined probability

    –

    Fair odds

    –

    The goal-fest: both teams score with at least three goals, plus the match's most likely scorer and card candidate — all priced jointly via 20,000 simulated matches.

    Odds & value

    The model's value spots

    Bets where the model's probability beats what the odds imply (EV+).

    • Under 2.540% probability@2.85BetsafeEV+15%reference odds
    • Under 2.540% probability@2.85BetssonEV+15%reference odds
    • Under 2.540% probability@2.85NordicbetEV+15%reference odds
    Bookmaker1 · VVV-VenloX2 · Emmen
    Betsafe2.553.602.42
    Betsson2.553.602.42
    Nordicbet2.553.602.42

    Odds updated 30 Aug, 10:35

    Odds movement

    1+5 %
    40 %35 %

    2.42 → 2.55

    X0 %
    28 %23 %

    3.60 → 3.60

    2-4 %
    40 %35 %

    2.52 → 2.42

    Over 2,50 %
    69 %64 %

    1.39 → 1.39

    Betsson · 16 recorded price levels · 24/08/2026 → 30/08/2026 · fixed scale 5 percentage points

    Statistics

    Head-to-head

    4 matches
    VVV-Venlo 1Draw 1Emmen 2
    Goals: 7–6 (⌀ 3,2)

    Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

    Key facts

    • Emmen come into this round on 4 straight wins.
    xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

    Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

    VVV-Venlo
    Emmen
    When goals are scored and conceded — 2026
    VVV-Venlo (7–5)
    Emmen (10–5)
    Pass networks

    Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

    VVV-Venlo
    Youri Schoonderwaldt: 111 passningar, xT 0.1SchoonderwaldtÉanna Clancy: 104 passningar, xT 0.23ClancyGabin Blancquart: 98 passningar, xT 0.02BlancquartLars de Blok: 98 passningar, xT 0.55BlokTristan Schenkhuizen: 73 passningar, xT 0.02SchenkhuizenRaf Vullers: 63 passningar, xT 0.13VullersLuis Gorlich: 56 passningar, xT 0.26GorlichEdhy Yvan Zuliani: 43 passningar, xT 0.69ZulianiAlex Adrianus Antonius Schalk: 38 passningar, xT -0.04SchalkMohammed Odriss: 37 passningar, xT 0.12OdrissDean Zandbergen: 25 passningar, xT -0.02Zandbergen
    Emmen
    Yanis Dede-Lhomme: 168 passningar, xT 1.05Dede-LhommeJoshua Mukeh: 127 passningar, xT 0.05MukehCasper Staring: 109 passningar, xT 0.58StaringLuca Everink: 94 passningar, xT 0.27EverinkBryan Albert Van Hove: 89 passningar, xT 0.41HoveMichael John Breij: 85 passningar, xT 0.51BreijSam Karssies: 72 passningar, xT 0.21KarssiesFreddy Quispel: 55 passningar, xT 0.09QuispelNelson Efosa Amadin: 46 passningar, xT 0.11AmadinJack Cooper-Love: 44 passningar, xT -0.05Cooper-LoveSybrand Veldhuis: 35 passningar, xT 0.26Veldhuis
    xT networks

    The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

    VVV-Venlo
    Youri Schoonderwaldt: 111 passningar, xT 0.1SchoonderwaldtÉanna Clancy: 104 passningar, xT 0.23ClancyGabin Blancquart: 98 passningar, xT 0.02BlancquartLars de Blok: 98 passningar, xT 0.55BlokTristan Schenkhuizen: 73 passningar, xT 0.02SchenkhuizenRaf Vullers: 63 passningar, xT 0.13VullersLuis Gorlich: 56 passningar, xT 0.26GorlichEdhy Yvan Zuliani: 43 passningar, xT 0.69ZulianiAlex Adrianus Antonius Schalk: 38 passningar, xT -0.04SchalkMohammed Odriss: 37 passningar, xT 0.12OdrissDean Zandbergen: 25 passningar, xT -0.02Zandbergen
    Emmen
    Yanis Dede-Lhomme: 168 passningar, xT 1.05Dede-LhommeJoshua Mukeh: 127 passningar, xT 0.05MukehCasper Staring: 109 passningar, xT 0.58StaringLuca Everink: 94 passningar, xT 0.27EverinkBryan Albert Van Hove: 89 passningar, xT 0.41HoveMichael John Breij: 85 passningar, xT 0.51BreijSam Karssies: 72 passningar, xT 0.21KarssiesFreddy Quispel: 55 passningar, xT 0.09QuispelNelson Efosa Amadin: 46 passningar, xT 0.11AmadinJack Cooper-Love: 44 passningar, xT -0.05Cooper-LoveSybrand Veldhuis: 35 passningar, xT 0.26Veldhuis

    The teams in numbers

    PerformanceVVV-VenloEmmen
    Points69
    xPoints3.15
    xG per match0.952
    xGA per match1.91.2
    xG within 8s of winning the ball0.10.28
    xGA within 8s of losing the ball0.340.02
    Playing styleVVV-VenloEmmen
    Build-up efficiency0.310.34
    Field tilt0.350.56
    xT per match0.931.4
    xTA per match1.70.7
    Won balls, offensive half2129
    Pressing intensity0.230.23
    Pressing efficiency0.340.27
    Pressing efficiency, offensive half0.240.28
    Entries into the box per match1118
    Entries into the box against1210
    Pass completion %0.710.76
    Pass completion % under pressure0.610.75
    Passes per match268336
    Passes against per match344376
    Switches of play per match20.525
    Long balls per match3231
    Set piecesVVV-VenloEmmen
    xG from free kicks0.080
    Corners per match3.24.3
    Corners against per match6.52.7
    xG per corner0.030.04
    xGA per corner against0.020.01
    First touch, offensive corners %0.50.5
    First touch, defensive corners %0.750.62
    OtherVVV-VenloEmmen
    Throw-in control0.710.77
    The goalkeepersYouri Schoonderwaldt (VVV-Venlo)Sam Karssies (Emmen)
    Saves118
    Save %69%62%
    xG prevented31%43%
    Claims0 (0%)0 (0%)

    Teams & more matches this round

    VVV-Venlo
    Fixtures, form & tips
    Emmen
    Fixtures, form & tips

    Frequently asked questions

    Who wins VVV-Venlo vs Emmen according to our model?

    The model gives Emmen a 38% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: VVV-Venlo 34%, draw 28%, Emmen 38%.

    What is the most likely scoreline?

    The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 11% probability.

    Over or under 2.5 goals?

    The model rates over 2.5 goals at 60% and under at 40%.

    Will both teams score?

    The probability of both teams scoring is 62% according to the model.

    Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

    The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.

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    VVV-VenloVVV-Venlo
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    1 40%X 28%2 32%
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    Predictions come from PlaymakerAI's match model and reflect the model's assessment — not betting advice. Gamble responsibly.