Den Bosch vs Vitesse: Prediction & Odds (28 Aug 2026)

Eerste Divisie28 August 202619°11,3 mm21 km/h

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Den BoschCounter-attacks & crosses

1–4

VitessePossession & high press

The model's lean: 2 · Vitesse (41%)

1 · Den Bosch 34%X 25%41% Vitesse · 2

34%

25%

41%

Analysis: Den Bosch – Vitesse

Anna Karlsson · 26 August 2026 · A data-driven preview · How the predictions work

TEXT (corrected):

Den Bosch's ability to score in 15 consecutive league matches stands out as a critical factor in this matchup against Vitesse. Their knack for finding the net, even when facing stronger opposition, underscores their offensive resilience. However, the visitors come with their own strengths: a high-press possession game that has yielded an expected goals tally of 2.1 per match, slightly edging out the hosts. This tactical contrast sets the stage for an intriguing clash, with both teams likely to find the back of the net.

Despite Den Bosch's impressive scoring streak, Vitesse's edge in expected goals against (xGA) at 1.2 per match gives them a defensive advantage. This is reflected in the model's probabilities, tipping Vitesse as slight favorites with a 41% chance of victory. Additionally, their superior xG within eight seconds of winning the ball suggests they could capitalize on quick transitions, a potential weakness in Den Bosch's counter-attacking style.

The head-to-head record since 2023 gives Den Bosch a curious edge, winning three of the four encounters. However, with such a small sample size, these results weigh less heavily than the current form and expected metrics. Den Bosch's ability to disrupt Vitesse's rhythm with well-timed counters and crosses may still play a role, but Vitesse's overall playing style and statistical edges suggest they might have the upper hand.

The expected goals figures of 1.60 for Den Bosch and 1.77 for Vitesse further support the likelihood of a closely contested match, with both sides likely to contribute to the scoreline. With a 66% probability for over 2.5 goals and a 67% chance of both teams scoring, the match leans towards a high-scoring affair despite the predicted rainfall, which is already factored into the model.

Considering the probabilities and expected metrics, the most likely outcome appears to be a narrow 1-2 victory for Vitesse. The over 2.5 goals market at 66% presents a compelling angle for those looking to capitalize on a likely goal-heavy match.

Den Bosch

Form DLDLW

League ranking xG #5xGA #14xT #6xP/match #5Points #11

Key players

Sebastian Karlsson GrachFxG 0.82 · xT -0.01
Kévin Monzialo BokoloFxG 0.29 · xT 0.37
Ilias BoumassaoudiLWxG 0.17 · xT 0.01

Vitesse

Form DLDWL

League ranking xG #2xGA #6xT #3xP/match #4Points #10

Key players

Naoufal BannisFxG 0.71 · xT -0.20
Ricardo-Felipe SchwarzRWxG 0.14 · xT 0.24
Nathangelo Alexandro MarkeloRWBxG 0.08 · xT 0.52

Final score

1 – 4

The model called the outcome

Predicted probabilities: Den Bosch 34% · Draw 25% · Vitesse 41%

Match prediction: Den Bosch – Vitesse

Predicted score matrix

Vitesse →

Den Bosch →

0–03.7%

0–15.8%

0–25.4%

0–33.2%

0–4+2.1%

1–05.2%

1–110.0%

1–28.6%

1–35.1%

1–4+3.4%

2–04.4%

2–17.8%

2–26.9%

2–34.1%

2–4+2.7%

3–02.3%

3–14.2%

3–23.7%

3–32.2%

3–4+1.4%

4+–01.3%

4+–12.4%

4+–22.1%

4+–31.2%

4+–4+0.8%

Probability per final score. Rows = home goals, columns = away goals.

Most likely scorelines

1.1-110%
2.1-29%
3.2-18%
4.2-27%
5.0-16%

Expected goals

1,60–1,77

Both teams to score

67%

Over/under goals

Expected goals: 3,4

111%

220%

322%

419%

5+25%

Under 2,534%

–

Over 2,566%

–

Ready-made bet suggestions

More combos & build your own →

01 · 2 legs

Safe

Double chance Vitesse or draw (X2)65%
Over 1.5 goals85%

02 · 3 legs

Balanced

Double chance Vitesse or draw (X2)65%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Alexander Büttner to score21%

03 · 4 legs

Bold

Both teams to score67%
Over 2.5 goals66%
Thijs van Leeuwen to score27%
Kevin Antonio Felida to be booked22%

Odds & value

Bookmaker	1 · Den Bosch	X	2 · Vitesse
Betsafe	2.80	3.60	2.05
Betsson	2.80	3.60	2.05
Nordicbet	2.80	3.60	2.05

Odds updated 28 Aug, 11:38

Odds movement

Market signal

The market has moved clearly towards an Vitesse win since 27 August — the odds have shortened from 2.32 to 2.05 (−12%).

1+16 %

39 %29 %

2.42 → 2.80

X0 %

30 %20 %

3.60 → 3.60

2-12 %

46 %36 %

2.32 → 2.05

Betsson · 7 recorded price levels · 27/08/2026 → 28/08/2026 · fixed scale 10 percentage points

Statistics

Head-to-head

4 matches

Den Bosch 3Draw 0Vitesse 1

Goals: 9–6 (⌀ 3,8)

Head-to-head based on Eerste Divisie data since 2023.

Key facts

Den Bosch have scored in 15 consecutive league matches.

xG & xGA per match — 3-game rolling average

Solid line = created (xG), dashed = conceded (xGA).

Den Bosch

Vitesse

When goals are scored and conceded — 2026

Den Bosch (8–6)

Vitesse (4–5)

Pass networks

Last 5 matches. Circle size = pass volume, line width = combinations between players. Attacking left to right.

Den Bosch

Vitesse

xT networks

The same network weighted by offensive threat (xT): circle size = threat created by the player, line width = threat of the combinations. Last 5 matches, attacking left to right.

Den Bosch

Vitesse

The teams in numbers

Performance	Den Bosch	Vitesse
Points	4	4
xPoints	5.1	5.4
xG per match	1.9	2.1
xGA per match	1.8	1.2
xG within 8s of winning the ball	0.46	0.56
xGA within 8s of losing the ball	0.27	0.09

Playing style	Den Bosch	Vitesse
Build-up efficiency	0.32	0.31
Field tilt	0.45	0.65
xT per match	1.4	1.8
xTA per match	1.6	1.2
Won balls, offensive half	24	27
Pressing intensity	0.22	0.22
Pressing efficiency	0.37	0.29
Pressing efficiency, offensive half	0.33	0.33
Entries into the box per match	13	18
Entries into the box against	18	13
Pass completion %	0.66	0.78
Pass completion % under pressure	0.65	0.74
Passes per match	251	395
Passes against per match	301	304
Switches of play per match	16.3	34.7
Long balls per match	36	45

Set pieces	Den Bosch	Vitesse
xG from free kicks	0.11	0.04
Corners per match	6.3	5.4
Corners against per match	5.7	2.7
xG per corner	0.03	0.02
xGA per corner against	0.07	0.03
First touch, offensive corners %	0.37	0.38
First touch, defensive corners %	0.59	0.5

Other	Den Bosch	Vitesse
Throw-in control	0.78	0.74

The goalkeepers	Pepijn van de Merbel (Den Bosch)	Maximilian Brull (Vitesse)
Saves	18	9
Save %	75%	64%
xG prevented	63%	48%
Claims	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

Teams & more matches this round

Den Bosch

Fixtures, form & tips

Vitesse

Fixtures, form & tips

Frequently asked questions

Who wins Den Bosch vs Vitesse according to our model?

The model gives Vitesse a 41% win probability. Full 1X2 picture: Den Bosch 34%, draw 25%, Vitesse 41%.

What is the most likely scoreline?

The model's most likely final score is 1-1 at 10% probability.

Over or under 2.5 goals?

The model rates over 2.5 goals at 66% and under at 34%.

Will both teams score?

The probability of both teams scoring is 67% according to the model.

Why are some legs locked in the bet builder?

The same rules as the bookmakers’ builders: legs that contradict or already follow from your slip cannot be combined — for example correct score 2–1 with under 2.5 goals. The difference is that we don’t look the rules up in a table; we compute them straight from the score matrix.